Week 1 Swing Play Analysis
2026 Season • 16 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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We missed LA Chargers (59%), and the data says we should have seen it coming. Key moments: a key Q4 key play, LA Chargers's O.Hampton turnover in Q2, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. 80% of swing plays were predictable - we need to factor these tendencies better.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 12:28📍 Key Play(12:28) 16-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 80-S.Fehoko, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-30-A.Ingold at LAC 3.
Q2 13:37🔄 Turnover(13:37) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left end to ARI 31 for -1 yards (28-A.Wingard). FUMBLES (28-A.Wingard), RECOVERED by ARI-2-W.Johnson at ARI 34.
Q2 2:004️⃣ 4th Down(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at ARI 13 for -10 yards (55-D.Stills).
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Nailed it. We had Pittsburgh at 62% confidence, and they delivered - almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Atlanta's C.Rush turnover in Q4, Atlanta's C.Rush turnover in Q2, and Pittsburgh's A.Rodgers turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 14:16🔄 Turnover(14:16) (Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at ATL 35. 90-T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:17🔄 Turnover(12:17) (Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass deep middle intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Brisker at ATL 41. 3-J.Brisker pushed ob at ATL 31 for 10 yards (65-M.Bergeron).
Q1 2:48🔄 Turnover(2:48) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to PIT 27 for no gain (21-M.Hughes, 99-C.Thomas). FUMBLES (99-C.Thomas), RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at PIT 25.
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We missed Indianapolis (53%), and the data says we should have seen it coming. Key moments: Indianapolis's D.Jones turnover in Q1, L.Jackson's (54-yard) explosive play, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. 60% of swing plays were predictable - we need to factor these tendencies better.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 7:38🔄 Turnover(7:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 13-L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Smith at IND 32. 0-R.Smith to IND 31 for 1 yard (2-J.Downs).
Q2 7:04💨 Explosive(7:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:074️⃣ 4th Down(12:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 6-J.Lane.
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Got the winner right with Buffalo (65%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a +32% WPA swing play, Houston's C.Stroud turnover in Q4, and a -21% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:41💥 Big Play(1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:16🔄 Turnover(:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24.
Q4 0:25💥 Big Play(:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).
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Got the winner right with Chicago (69%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Chicago's T.Taylor turnover in Q2, a +15% WPA swing play, and a key Q2 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 7:07🔄 Turnover(7:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-81-K.Davis at CAR 28.
Q1 3:01💥 Big Play(3:01) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at CAR 6 for 47 yards (24-W.Lee). CAR-97-B.Brown was injured during the play.
Q2 3:41📍 Key Play(3:41) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 25-J.Brooks to CHI 26 for 48 yards (1-J.Johnson).
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Got the winner right with Jacksonville (75%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Cleveland's D.Watson turnover in Q1, Cleveland's D.Watson turnover in Q2, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 12:17🔄 Turnover(12:17) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun [52-D.Hamilton] at JAX 19. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 41 for 22 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
Q2 8:38🔄 Turnover(8:38) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 45 for 5 yards (51-V.Miller) [44-T.Walker]. FUMBLES (51-V.Miller), touched at CLE 46, RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Hines-Allen at CLE 44.
Q4 8:224️⃣ 4th Down(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at JAX 22 for -6 yards (50-B.Combs).
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This one stings. We liked Dallas at 74%, but variance had other plans. The game turned on NY Giants's T.Tracy turnover in Q2 and Dallas's D.Prescott turnover in Q2. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (2)
Q2 2:00🔄 Turnover(2:00) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left end to DAL 21 for 8 yards (92-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (92-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-28-S.Revel at DAL 19. 28-S.Revel to DAL 16 for -3 yards (78-A.Thomas).
Q2 0:58🔄 Turnover(:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG 45. 8-J.Holland ran ob at NYG 45 for no gain.
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We missed Denver (54%), and the data says we should have seen it coming. Key moments: J.Ezeudu's (60-yard) explosive play, Kansas City's P.Mahomes turnover in Q3, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion. 60% of swing plays were predictable - we need to factor these tendencies better.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 12:53💨 Explosive(12:53) 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:47🔄 Turnover(9:47) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 1-X.Worthy INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at KC 29. 22-B.Jones to KC 5 for 24 yards (77-J.Moore).
Q1 11:354️⃣ 4th Down(11:35) (Shotgun) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to DEN 35 for 3 yards (96-E.Uwazurike; 9-T.Hufanga).
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This one stings. We liked Green Bay at 64%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Green Bay's J.Love turnover in Q4, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and J.Love's (81-yard) explosive play. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 5:01🔄 Turnover(5:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by 43-A.Van Ginkel and 51-B.Cashman). FUMBLES (43-A.Van Ginkel) [51-B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-43-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. 43-A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7 yards (50-Z.Bako-Bewele).
Q4 13:174️⃣ 4th Down(13:17) 10-J.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (97-D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).
Q1 7:54💨 Explosive(7:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-2-I.Rodgers was injured during the play.
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We missed Miami (75%), and the data says we should have seen it coming. Key moments: Las Vegas's K.Cousins turnover in Q3, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and Las Vegas's K.Cousins turnover in Q4. 60% of swing plays were predictable - we need to factor these tendencies better.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 14:34🔄 Turnover(14:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left intended for 18-J.Bech INTERCEPTED by 16-M.Taaffe at MIA 46. 16-M.Taaffe to MIA 48 for 2 yards (18-J.Bech).
Q1 4:294️⃣ 4th Down(4:29) 34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 34 for no gain (40-W.Gay; 23-Z.Anderson). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 33 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 3-C.Johnson).
Q4 11:32🔄 Turnover(11:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle intended for 9-J.Nailor INTERCEPTED by 11-D.Trader at MIA 42. 11-D.Trader to LV 44 for 14 yards (23-D.Laube; 58-J.Powers-Johnson).
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Nailed it. We had Seattle at 54% confidence, and they delivered - almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: New England's D.Maye turnover in Q4, D.Lock's (45-yard) explosive play, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:26🔄 Turnover(:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.
Q4 11:38💨 Explosive(11:38) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:004️⃣ 4th Down(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 13-M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones).
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Got the winner right with Detroit (63%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a -57% WPA swing play, a +35% WPA swing play, and a key Q5 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 1:38💥 Big Play(1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q5 6:19💥 Big Play(6:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 1-J.Williams ran ob at NO 5 for 22 yards.
Q5 3:134️⃣ 4th Down(3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to NO 47 for 20 yards (29-A.Maddox). ** Injury Update: DET-23-R.Ya-Sin has returned to the game.
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Got the winner right with NY Jets (58%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Tennessee's J.Sanders turnover in Q2, a key Q2 key play, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q2 5:03🔄 Turnover19-J.Sanders kicks 55 yards from NYJ 35 to TEN 10. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 20 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball). FUMBLES (41-M.McCrary-Ball), RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at TEN 38. ** Injury Update: TEN-17-C.Dike has returned to the game.
Q2 2:44📍 Key Play(2:44) 19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q2 10:144️⃣ 4th Down(10:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to TEN 31 for 9 yards (23-K.Winston; 24-A.Taylor).
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We missed LA Rams (67%), and the data says we should have seen it coming. Key moments: a key Q2 key play, San Francisco's B.Purdy turnover in Q2, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion. 60% of swing plays were predictable - we need to factor these tendencies better.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 4:35📍 Key Play(4:35) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:09🔄 Turnover(12:09) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Lake at LA 31. 37-Q.Lake to LA 31 for no gain (85-G.Kittle).
Q3 3:464️⃣ 4th Down(3:46) 9-M.Stafford right guard to SF 1 for no gain (92-O.Odighizuwa). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Nailed it. We had Cincinnati at 51% confidence, and they delivered - almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q1, Cincinnati's J.Burrow turnover in Q3, and Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 6:29🔄 Turnover(6:29) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Murphy and 49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (99-M.Murphy) [49-B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-44-D.Knight at TB 27. 44-D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:24🔄 Turnover(2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 80-A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by 45-J.Trotter [50-V.Vea] at CIN 38. 45-J.Trotter for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:15🔄 Turnover(12:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to CIN 4 for 8 yards (49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (49-B.Carter), RECOVERED by CIN-6-B.Cook at CIN -3. Touchback.
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Nailed it. We had Philadelphia at 55% confidence, and they delivered - almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +16% WPA swing play, J.Hurts's (43-yard) explosive play, and a key Q4 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 8:03💥 Big Play(8:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to WAS 47 for 22 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q4 6:12💨 Explosive(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:01📍 Key Play(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-J.Daniels pass to 87-J.Bates is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS.