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Swing Play Analysis

Understanding why predictions hit or miss through key plays

Analysed Accuracy
63.9%
140/219 picks
Correct Picks
140
across 17 weeks
Variance Losses
74
right process, wrong result
Predictable Misses
5
model improvement areas

Week-by-Week Analysis

Click a week to see detailed swing play breakdown

5
Week 5
6/13 correct• 7 variance
46%
6
Week 6
10/15 correct• 4 variance• 1 predictable
67%
7
Week 7
9/15 correct• 6 variance
60%
8
Week 8
11/13 correct• 1 variance• 1 predictable
85%
9
Week 9
9/14 correct• 4 variance• 1 predictable
64%
10
Week 10
10/14 correct• 4 variance
71%
11
Week 11
9/15 correct• 5 variance• 1 predictable
60%
12
Week 12
8/14 correct• 6 variance
57%
13
Week 13
10/16 correct• 6 variance
63%
14
Week 14
9/14 correct• 4 variance• 1 predictable
64%
15
Week 15
14/16 correct• 2 variance
88%
16
Week 16
10/16 correct• 6 variance
63%
17
Week 17
10/16 correct• 6 variance
63%
18
Week 18
8/16 correct• 8 variance
50%
19
Week 19
4/6 correct• 2 variance
67%
20
Week 20
2/4 correct• 2 variance
50%
21
Week 21
1/2 correct• 1 variance
50%

Understanding Our Analysis

Model Correct

Our pick was right. The swing plays aligned with our prediction or didn't change the outcome.

Variance Loss

Right process, wrong result. Unpredictable swing plays (fluky turnovers, unlikely big plays) decided the game.

Predictable Miss

Swing plays were foreseeable based on team tendencies. These inform model improvements.