Week 2 Swing Play Analysis
2026 Season • 16 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Got the winner right with Carolina (61%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Atlanta's C.Rush turnover in Q1, Atlanta's C.Rush turnover in Q1, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 15:00🔄 Turnover(15:00) 13-C.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (20-Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-21-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 9:07🔄 Turnover(9:07) (Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short middle intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke (55-D.Lloyd) at CAR 41. 58-B.Okereke to CAR 44 for 3 yards (8-K.Pitts; 5-D.London).
Q1 10:514️⃣ 4th Down(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with Cincinnati (55%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q2 6:584️⃣ 4th Down(6:58) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CIN 19 for -1 yards (97-D.Lawrence).
Q2 13:284️⃣ 4th Down(13:28) (Field Goal formation) 38-K.Kroeger to CIN 24 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 25. 38-K.Kroeger pass incomplete short right.
Q4 3:204️⃣ 4th Down(3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Wayne (27-J.Battle).
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This one stings. We liked Tampa Bay at 71%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q1, and a +19% WPA swing play. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:224️⃣ 4th Down(:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka.
Q1 1:19🔄 Turnover(1:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Harden at CLE 47. 26-M.Harden to TB 28 for 25 yards (17-T.Hurst).
Q4 3:57💥 Big Play(3:57) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 86-B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Nailed it. We had Buffalo at 74% confidence, and they delivered - almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: J.Allen's (43-yard) explosive play, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (3)
Q1 3:49💨 Explosive(3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard].
Q3 11:404️⃣ 4th Down(11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to BUF 22 for 18 yards (37-J.Hancock).
Q4 2:124️⃣ 4th Down(2:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa pushed ob at DET 44 for 20 yards (47-C.Benford).
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This one stings. We liked NY Jets at 63%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +30% WPA swing play, a -26% WPA swing play, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 6:17💥 Big Play(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (2-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on NYJ-2-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
Q4 4:49💥 Big Play(4:49) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (82-A.Smith).
Q4 1:204️⃣ 4th Down(1:20) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness).
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Nailed it. We had Kansas City at 68% confidence, and they delivered - almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a clutch field goal, and a +36% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 5:13💥 Big Play(5:13) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q5 3:15💥 Big Play(3:15) 3-S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q5 1:30💥 Big Play(1:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to IND 24 for 22 yards (0-C.Bynum).
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This one stings. We liked Jacksonville at 66%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +16% WPA swing play, a +16% WPA swing play, and Denver's B.Nix turnover in Q2. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 11:53💥 Big Play(11:53) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:11💥 Big Play(11:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 3-J.Meyers to DEN 38 for 28 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
Q2 2:15🔄 Turnover(2:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis at JAX -8. Touchback.
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Got the winner right with Las Vegas (56%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: LA Chargers's O.Hampton turnover in Q4, a +18% WPA swing play, and LA Chargers's J.Herbert turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 3:52🔄 Turnover(3:52) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), RECOVERED by LV-11-J.Chinn at LV 41. 11-J.Chinn to LAC 16 for 43 yards (10-J.Herbert).
Q3 11:14💥 Big Play(11:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at LV 5 for 53 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q1 3:26🔄 Turnover(3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left intended for 83-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses at LV 48. 35-H.Masses to LAC 23 for 29 yards (28-K.Vidal).
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Got the winner right with San Francisco (61%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 fourth down conversion, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and M.Willis's (77-yard) explosive play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (3)
Q1 0:494️⃣ 4th Down(:49) 2-M.Willis up the middle to SF 29 for 2 yards (96-J.Thompson).
Q3 3:554️⃣ 4th Down(3:55) (Punt formation) 48-B.Pinion FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 27, and recovers at MIA 28.
Q4 2:41💨 Explosive(2:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 84-R.Miller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked Chicago at 67%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and Chicago's D.Swift turnover in Q3. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 6:26💥 Big Play(6:26) 8-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (2-I.Rodgers), Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-19-T.Taylor at MIN 12.
Q4 0:014️⃣ 4th Down(:01) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner).
Q3 9:42🔄 Turnover(9:42) 4-D.Swift right tackle to MIN 1 for no gain (61-J.Redmond; 0-I.Pace). FUMBLES (61-J.Redmond), RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 1. CHI-85-C.Kmet was injured during the play.
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This one stings. We liked Baltimore at 77%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +18% WPA swing play, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q4 2:03💥 Big Play(2:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 5.
Q4 1:324️⃣ 4th Down(1:32) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 5:414️⃣ 4th Down(5:41) (No Huddle) 6-T.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton).
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This one stings. We liked NY Giants at 56%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: LA Rams's K.Williams turnover in Q2, NY Giants's J.Winston turnover in Q2, and LA Rams's M.Stafford turnover in Q2. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 3:11🔄 Turnover(3:11) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 11 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (8-J.Holland), RECOVERED by NYG-8-J.Holland at LA 11.
Q2 6:31🔄 Turnover(6:31) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDuffie [0-B.Young] at LA -1. 22-T.McDuffie to LA 21 for 22 yards (84-T.Johnson).
Q2 5:37🔄 Turnover(5:37) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG 29. 8-J.Holland to NYG 29 for no gain (17-D.Adams).
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Nailed it. We had Philadelphia at 58% confidence, and they delivered - almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +37% WPA swing play, Philadelphia's J.Hurts turnover in Q1, and a +19% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:14💥 Big Play(:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:11🔄 Turnover(6:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN -2. 37-A.Hooker to PHI 10 for 92 yards (9-M.Lemon).
Q4 2:44💥 Big Play(2:44) (Shotgun) 2-T.Spears left end pushed ob at PHI 9 for 27 yards (58-J.Hunt). PHI-58-J.Hunt was injured during the play.
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Got the winner right with New England (55%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: New England's D.Maye turnover in Q1, Pittsburgh's A.Rodgers turnover in Q4, and New England's D.Maye turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 11:32🔄 Turnover(11:32) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to PIT 31 for 3 yards (51-N.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-N.Herbig), RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at PIT 31. PENALTY on PIT-5-J.Ramsey, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 31.
Q4 13:46🔄 Turnover(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 21 for -9 yards (90-C.Barmore). FUMBLES (90-C.Barmore) [90-C.Barmore], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at PIT 19. 91-E.Ponder for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 12:59🔄 Turnover(12:59) 10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Queen at PIT 10. 6-P.Queen to PIT 13 for 3 yards (85-H.Henry).
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This one stings. We liked Arizona at 64%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: D.Lock's (82-yard) explosive play, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 12:38💨 Explosive(12:38) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 15:004️⃣ 4th Down(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:164️⃣ 4th Down(1:16) 55-O.Oluwatimi and 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson up the middle to ARI 2 for -1 yards (28-A.Wingard).
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Got the winner right with Dallas (61%), though the margin surprised us. The game turned on a key Q2 key play and Washington's M.Mariota turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (2)
Q2 0:03📍 Key Play(:03) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [90-J.Bullard]. WAS-5-J.Daniels was injured during the play.
Q3 7:15🔄 Turnover(7:15) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 6-D.Brown to WAS 18 for -6 yards (55-J.Barham). FUMBLES (55-J.Barham), RECOVERED by DAL-53-D.Winters at WAS 18. 53-D.Winters ran ob at WAS 13 for 5 yards.