Week 18 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 16 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Got the winner right with LA Rams (66%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q3 key play, Arizona's J.Brissett turnover in Q1, and J.Brissett's (43-yard) explosive play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 1:21📍 Key Play(1:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 21 for 21 yards (28-E.Jones; 3-B.Baker). ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play.
Q1 13:10🔄 Turnover(13:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 17 for -9 yards (10-J.Stewart). FUMBLES (10-J.Stewart) [10-J.Stewart], RECOVERED by LA-91-K.Turner at ARI 23. 91-K.Turner to ARI 23 for no gain (71-J.Gaines).
Q3 10:44💨 Explosive(10:44) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-M.Wilson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked Baltimore at 60%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, L.Jackson's (64-yard) explosive play, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:02💥 Big Play(:02) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q4 2:30💨 Explosive(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 0:214️⃣ 4th Down(:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely to PIT 24 for 26 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt].
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Nailed it. We had Tampa Bay at 71% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Carolina's R.Dowdle turnover in Q4, Carolina's B.Young turnover in Q4, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 11:15🔄 Turnover(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
Q4 0:03🔄 Turnover(:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 34 for 13 yards. Lateral to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CAR 35, RECOVERED by TB-21-B.Morrison at CAR 33.
Q4 3:104️⃣ 4th Down(3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).
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This one stings. We liked Cincinnati at 80%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Cincinnati's J.Burrow turnover in Q1, and Cincinnati's J.Burrow turnover in Q2. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:03💥 Big Play(:03) 25-A.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ** Injury Update: CIN-23-D.Hill has returned to the game.
Q1 1:11🔄 Turnover(1:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush (93-S.Harris) at CLE 3. 30-D.Bush for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-30-D.Bush, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 14:19🔄 Turnover(14:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 86-N.Fant to CIN 46 for 5 yards (17-J.Baker; 9-G.Delpit). FUMBLES (17-J.Baker), RECOVERED by CLE-27-S.Webb at CIN 47. 27-S.Webb for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-27-S.Webb, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Off
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This one stings. We liked Dallas at 52%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Dallas's D.Prescott turnover in Q1, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 key play. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 10:06🔄 Turnover(10:06) 4-D.Prescott FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 29, RECOVERED by NYG-58-B.Okereke at DAL 28.
Q2 2:544️⃣ 4th Down(2:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (36-R.Payton). Penalty on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 1:17📍 Key Play12-J.Gillan kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to DAL 5. 9-K.Turpin to NYG 11 for 84 yards (23-A.Green).
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This one stings. We liked Chicago at 51%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Detroit's J.Goff turnover in Q4, and a key Q4 key play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:02💥 Big Play(:02) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q4 2:23🔄 Turnover(2:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard (9-J.Brisker) at CHI 5. 31-K.Byard to CHI 26 for 21 yards (64-C.Hubbard; 18-I.TeSlaa).
Q4 0:42📍 Key Play(:42) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CHI 26 for 26 yards (33-J.Jones).
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Got the winner right with Minnesota (58%), though the margin surprised us. The game turned on a key Q2 fourth down conversion and Minnesota's M.Brosmer turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (2)
Q2 4:344️⃣ 4th Down(4:34) (No Huddle) 9-J.McCarthy up the middle to GB 20 for 1 yard (57-B.Cox; 33-E.Williams). Green Bay challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q4 11:31🔄 Turnover(11:31) (Shotgun) 12-M.Brosmer sacked at GB 17 for -12 yards (57-B.Cox). FUMBLES (57-B.Cox) [57-B.Cox], RECOVERED by GB-99-B.Sorrell at GB 18. 99-B.Sorrell to GB 25 for 7 yards (12-M.Brosmer).
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Nailed it. We had Houston at 68% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a clutch field goal, R.Leonard's (66-yard) explosive play, and Indianapolis's R.Leonard turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:17💥 Big Play(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q1 10:45💨 Explosive(10:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 12:35🔄 Turnover(12:35) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short left intended for 84-T.Warren INTERCEPTED by 36-A.Huzzie (72-T.Togiai) at IND 33. 36-A.Huzzie to IND 33 for no gain (84-T.Warren).
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This one stings. We liked Kansas City at 63%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Las Vegas's H.Butker turnover in Q4, and a +24% WPA swing play. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:13💥 Big Play(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 4:37🔄 Turnover7-H.Butker kicks 79 yards from KC 20 to LV 1. 23-D.Laube to LV 23 for 22 yards (40-E.Downs). FUMBLES (40-E.Downs), RECOVERED by KC-43-J.Cochrane at LV 21.
Q4 2:23💥 Big Play(2:23) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele pass deep left to 5-M.Brown to LV 23 for 51 yards (32-L.Johnson; 27-T.McCollum) [51-M.Koonce].
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This one stings. We liked LA Chargers at 52%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: LA Chargers's T.Lance turnover in Q1, LA Chargers's T.Lance turnover in Q4, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 3:50🔄 Turnover(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at LAC 45. 29-J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:29🔄 Turnover(13:29) 5-T.Lance sacked at LAC 16 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-95-S.Jones at LAC 20.
Q2 1:304️⃣ 4th Down(1:30) 28-H.Haskins right end to DEN 40 for 3 yards (21-R.Moss; 9-T.Hufanga).
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Got the winner right with New England (64%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Miami's Q.Ewers turnover in Q3, a key Q2 key play, and Miami's J.Wright turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 11:44🔄 Turnover(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q2 1:42📍 Key Play(1:42) 36-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Z.Sieler), Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Marshall at 50. 33-J.Marshall to NE 40 for 10 yards (81-A.Hooper).
Q2 4:39🔄 Turnover(4:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left end to NE 47 for 2 yards (0-C.Gonzalez, 51-J.Gibbens). FUMBLES (51-J.Gibbens), touched at NE 45, RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 45. 91-E.Ponder to MIA 37 for 18 yards (85-G.Dulcich).
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Nailed it. We had Atlanta at 55% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: New Orleans's T.Shough turnover in Q4, Atlanta's K.Cousins turnover in Q1, and a key Q4 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 3:24🔄 Turnover(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 89-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Alford at ATL 14. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at NO 27 for 59 yards (30-A.Estime).
Q1 8:10🔄 Turnover(8:10) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 96-C.Granderson at NO 14. 96-C.Granderson to NO 14 for no gain (8-K.Pitts).
Q4 4:40📍 Key Play(4:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right tackle to ATL 23 for 29 yards (39-C.Henderson).
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Got the winner right with Buffalo (82%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 14:524️⃣ 4th Down(14:52) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 83-K.Latu to NYJ 27 for 7 yards (95-E.Watts).
Q1 4:384️⃣ 4th Down(4:38) (Shotgun) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 33 for no gain (95-E.Watts).
Q2 7:554️⃣ 4th Down(7:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete short left to 31-K.Herbert [57-A.Epenesa].
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This one stings. We liked San Francisco at 58%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: San Francisco's B.Purdy turnover in Q4, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Only 25% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q4 10:27🔄 Turnover(10:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Thomas (53-B.Mafe) at SEA 3. 42-D.Thomas pushed ob at SEA 3 for no gain (23-C.McCaffrey).
Q1 7:274️⃣ 4th Down(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.
Q2 9:414️⃣ 4th Down(9:41) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 44-K.Juszczyk (27-T.Woolen) [90-J.Reed].
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Got the winner right with Jacksonville (79%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Tennessee's B.Allen turnover in Q2, a key Q1 key play, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 8:20🔄 Turnover(8:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass short middle intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 26-An.Johnson at JAX 42. 26-An.Johnson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:46📍 Key Play(11:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 5-E.Ayomanor to JAX 19 for 39 yards (29-E.Murray).
Q2 0:094️⃣ 4th Down(:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor (23-F.Oluokun).
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This one stings. We liked Philadelphia at 74%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Washington's J.Johnson turnover in Q3, a key Q4 key play, and Washington's J.Johnson turnover in Q2. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 10:57🔄 Turnover(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
Q4 2:37📍 Key Play(2:37) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 14-J.Johnson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:00🔄 Turnover(2:00) 14-J.Johnson pass short right intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt at WAS 22. 58-J.Hunt to WAS 22 for no gain (1-D.Samuel).