Week 17 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 16 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Got the winner right with Cincinnati (57%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 key play, a key Q1 key play, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 11:54📍 Key Play(11:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:04📍 Key Play(12:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase to ARI 24 for 22 yards (0-W.Johnson).
Q1 0:084️⃣ 4th Down(:08) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to ARI 1 for 1 yard (93-C.Campbell; 90-Z.Carter).
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This one stings. We liked Green Bay at 56%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q1 key play, Green Bay's M.Willis turnover in Q2, and Green Bay's C.Tune turnover in Q4. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 5:51📍 Key Play(5:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:27🔄 Turnover(6:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 30, RECOVERED by BAL-45-M.Green at GB 30.
Q4 7:02🔄 Turnover(7:02) (Shotgun) 6-C.Tune pass short left intended for 16-B.Melton INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL 26. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 32 for 6 yards (0-M.Golden).
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Nailed it. We had San Francisco at 67% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a -47% WPA swing play, a +25% WPA swing play, and San Francisco's B.Purdy turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:04💥 Big Play(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play.
Q4 2:23💥 Big Play(2:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:54🔄 Turnover(14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards (1-J.Johnson) at SF 34. 53-T.Edwards for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with Dallas (56%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: J.Croskey-Merritt's (72-yard) explosive play, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 9:44💨 Explosive(9:44) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:084️⃣ 4th Down(13:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 48 for 4 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
Q1 1:284️⃣ 4th Down(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to WAS 31 for 19 yards (6-N.Igbinoghene).
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Nailed it. We had Denver at 51% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +15% WPA swing play, a key Q4 key play, and Denver's B.Nix turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 5:52💥 Big Play(5:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-L.Humphrey to KC 28 for 17 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.Jones].
Q4 1:50📍 Key Play(1:50) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [27-C.Conner].
Q1 3:02🔄 Turnover(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 17-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 32-N.Bolton (8-K.Fulton) at DEN 35. 32-N.Bolton ran ob at DEN 35 for no gain.
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This one stings. We liked Detroit at 62%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: J.Addison's (65-yard) explosive play, Detroit's J.Goff turnover in Q3, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 3:52💨 Explosive(3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:57🔄 Turnover(2:57) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at DET 43. 22-H.Smith to DET 42 for 1 yard (14-A.St. Brown).
Q2 1:104️⃣ 4th Down(1:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: DET-58-P.Sewell has returned to the game.
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This one stings. We liked LA Chargers at 56%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: C.Stroud's (75-yard) explosive play, a key Q2 key play, and LA Chargers's J.Herbert turnover in Q2. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 13:30💨 Explosive(13:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 81-J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:52📍 Key Play(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards (11-T.Smith).
Q2 1:12🔄 Turnover(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 0-A.Al-Shaair at HOU 1. 0-A.Al-Shaair to HOU 1 for no gain.
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Got the winner right with Jacksonville (62%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Jacksonville's T.Lawrence turnover in Q2, Jacksonville's T.Lawrence turnover in Q1, and Indianapolis's P.Rivers turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 0:21🔄 Turnover(:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 53-G.Pratt at IND -6. Touchback.
Q1 6:13🔄 Turnover(6:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to IND 16 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at IND 17, RECOVERED by IND-52-S.Ebukam at IND 17.
Q4 7:59🔄 Turnover(7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at IND 34. 22-J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (2-J.Downs).
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This one stings. We liked LA Rams at 64%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a key Q4 key play, and LA Rams's M.Stafford turnover in Q2. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:25💥 Big Play(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 2:42📍 Key Play(2:42) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (26-K.Kinchens) [0-B.Young].
Q2 8:42🔄 Turnover(8:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at LA 34. 3-J.Bates for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with New England (73%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and NY Jets's B.Cook turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 3:034️⃣ 4th Down(3:03) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:414️⃣ 4th Down(5:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 9 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q1 3:41🔄 Turnover(3:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass deep left intended for 15-A.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE 34. 21-J.Hawkins ran ob at NE 34 for no gain.
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Got the winner right with New Orleans (57%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a +19% WPA swing play, Tennessee's C.Ward turnover in Q2, and a +16% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 7:59💥 Big Play(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to TEN 8 for 60 yards (39-D.Baker) [92-J.Harrell].
Q2 4:02🔄 Turnover(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TEN 33. 99-C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:54💥 Big Play(3:54) 30-A.Estime left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with NY Giants (53%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Las Vegas's G.Smith turnover in Q1, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 2:50🔄 Turnover(2:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke [91-D.Alexander] at NYG 9. 58-B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
Q3 0:364️⃣ 4th Down(:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 17-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:214️⃣ 4th Down(5:21) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NYG 45 for 6 yards (91-D.Alexander; 8-J.Holland).
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Nailed it. We had Philadelphia at 52% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a -27% WPA swing play, and Buffalo's J.Allen turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:084️⃣ 4th Down(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:05💥 Big PlayTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q1 4:13🔄 Turnover(4:13) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen sacked at PHI 29 for -6 yards (50-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (50-J.Phillips), touched at PHI 28, RECOVERED by PHI-30-J.Campbell at BUF 45.
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This one stings. We liked Pittsburgh at 69%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Cleveland's S.Sanders turnover in Q2, Cleveland's S.Sanders turnover in Q4, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 5:03🔄 Turnover(5:03) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right intended for 87-S.Cannella INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sawyer (91-L.Lee) [56-A.Highsmith] at PIT 42. 33-J.Sawyer to CLE 31 for 27 yards (74-T.Jenkins).
Q4 12:12🔄 Turnover(12:12) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger at PIT 34. 29-K.Dugger to PIT 34 for no gain (3-J.Jeudy).
Q4 0:214️⃣ 4th Down(:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling (21-D.Ward).
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Got the winner right with Seattle (68%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Seattle's S.Darnold turnover in Q2, Carolina's J.Curhan turnover in Q3, and Seattle's S.Darnold turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 5:33🔄 Turnover(5:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold to SEA 40 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 39. 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 39 for -7 yards (11-N.Scourton). FUMBLES (11-N.Scourton), touched at SEA 41, RECOVERED by CAR-94-A.Robinson at SEA 40. 94-A.Robinson to SEA 37 for 3 yards (14-S.Darnold). FUMBLES (14-S.D
Q3 12:06🔄 Turnover(12:06) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and
Q3 12:12🔄 Turnover(12:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at CAR -8. Touchback.
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This one stings. We liked Tampa Bay at 50%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Q.Ewers's (63-yard) explosive play, Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q4, and Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q4. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 4:37💨 Explosive(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 81-T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:05🔄 Turnover(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 5. 21-A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (88-C.Otton).
Q4 4:04🔄 Turnover(4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at MIA 40 for -9 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], touched at MIA 40, RECOVERED by MIA-56-Q.Bell at MIA 41.