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Week 19 Swing Play Analysis

2025 Season • 6 games analysed

67%
Accuracy
4/6 picks
2
Variance Losses
Right process, wrong result
0
Predictable Misses
Could have seen coming
30
Swing Plays
High-impact moments

📊 Swing Play Breakdown

💥
Big Plays
10
+66%
🔄
Turnovers
10
-153%
4️⃣
4th Down
7
+9%
📍
Other
3
+40%

Game-by-Game Analysis

BUF@JAX
27 - 24
✓ Model Correct
Our pick: BUFConfidence: 51%Predictability: 20%

Nailed it. We had Buffalo at 51% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a +21% WPA swing play, and Jacksonville's T.Lawrence turnover in Q4.

📊 Win Probability Flow+ 8 momentum shifts

JAX
BUF
|
Momentum shift
100%50%0%StartQ1Q2Q3Q4
JAX
BUF

Swing Plays (5)

BUFQ4 1:104️⃣ 4th Down
+23.9%

(1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 1 for 10 yards (26-An.Johnson; 91-A.Armste

Predictable based on team tendencies
BUFQ4 2:27💥 Big Play
+20.5%

(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 18-B.Cooks to JAX 20 for 36 yards (26-An.Johnson).

JAXQ4 0:59🔄 Turnover
-19.3%

(:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle intended for 3-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bishop (27-T.White) at JAX 37. 24-C.Bishop to JAX 35 for 2 yards.

GB@CHI
27 - 31
✓ Model Correct
Our pick: CHIConfidence: 57%Predictability: 0%

Nailed it. We had Chicago at 57% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a -28% WPA swing play, a +19% WPA swing play, and a clutch field goal.

📊 Win Probability Flow+ 7 momentum shifts

CHI
GB
|
Momentum shift
100%50%0%StartQ1Q2Q3Q4
CHI
GB

Swing Plays (5)

GBQ4 0:07💥 Big Play
-27.6%

(:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love to CHI 33 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 33. 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left.

CHIQ4 1:48💥 Big Play
+18.5%

(1:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

GBQ4 2:56💥 Big Play
-17.1%

(2:56) 17-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

HOU@PIT
30 - 6
✗ Variance Loss
Our pick: PITConfidence: 63%Predictability: 0%

This one stings. We liked Pittsburgh at 63%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Pittsburgh's A.Rodgers turnover in Q4, Houston's C.Stroud turnover in Q3, and Houston's B.Fisher turnover in Q1. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.

📊 Win Probability Flow+ 10 momentum shifts

PIT
HOU
|
Momentum shift
100%50%0%StartQ1Q2Q3Q4
PIT
HOU

Swing Plays (5)

PITQ4 11:34🔄 Turnover
-20.6%

(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 90-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at PIT 33. 90-S.Rankins for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

HOUQ3 10:32🔄 Turnover
-17.8%

(10:32) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at PIT 4. 26-B.Echols to PIT 4 for no gain (19-X.Hutchinson).

HOUQ1 2:10🔄 Turnover
-17.3%

(2:10) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud sacked at PIT 48 for -8 yards (33-J.Sawyer). FUMBLES (33-J.Sawyer), RECOVERED by PIT-94-Y.Black at PIT 44.

LAC@NE
3 - 16
✓ Model Correct
Our pick: NEConfidence: 70%Predictability: 0%

Got the winner right with New England (70%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: New England's D.Maye turnover in Q3, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.

📊 Win Probability Flow+ 11 momentum shifts

NE
LAC
|
Momentum shift
100%50%0%StartQ1Q2Q3Q4
NE
LAC

Swing Plays (5)

NEQ3 7:12🔄 Turnover
-14.4%

(7:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LAC 24 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], RECOVERED by LAC-91-D.Hand at LAC 23.

LACQ1 5:174️⃣ 4th Down
-11.8%

(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.

NEQ1 1:414️⃣ 4th Down
+11.7%

(1:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams ran ob at LAC 23 for 7 yards.

LA@CAR
34 - 31
✓ Model Correct
Our pick: LAConfidence: 69%Predictability: 0%

Got the winner right with LA Rams (68%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a +24% WPA swing play, a +21% WPA swing play, and a -20% WPA swing play.

📊 Win Probability Flow+ 11 momentum shifts

CAR
LA
|
Momentum shift
100%50%0%StartQ1Q2Q3Q4
CAR
LA

Swing Plays (5)

LAQ4 0:43💥 Big Play
+24.2%

(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

CARQ3 0:33💥 Big Play
+20.6%

(:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 18-J.Coker pushed ob at LA 9 for 52 yards (26-K.Kinchens).

LAQ4 4:18💥 Big Play
-19.7%

(4:18) 42-E.Evans punt is BLOCKED by 27-I.Simmons, Center-44-J.McQuaide, recovered by LA-20-R.Rivers at LA 30.

SF@PHI
23 - 19
✗ Variance Loss
Our pick: PHIConfidence: 61%Predictability: 20%

This one stings. We liked Philadelphia at 61%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.

📊 Win Probability Flow+ 8 momentum shifts

PHI
SF
|
Momentum shift
100%50%0%StartQ1Q2Q3Q4
PHI
SF

Swing Plays (5)

PHIQ4 0:434️⃣ 4th Down
-29.9%

(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).

PHIQ4 2:214️⃣ 4th Down
+17.7%

(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).

PHIQ1 1:334️⃣ 4th Down
-15.5%

(1:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith (20-U.Stout).

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