Week 20 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 4 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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This one stings. We liked Buffalo at 52%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +24% WPA swing play, a clutch field goal, and a +19% WPA swing play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow+ 12 momentum shifts
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:01💥 Big Play(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play.
Q4 0:10💥 Big Play(:10) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q5 7:01💥 Big Play(7:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey pushed ob at DEN 47 for 24 yards (39-C.Lewis).
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Got the winner right with New England (58%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Houston's C.Stroud turnover in Q2, New England's D.Maye turnover in Q1, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow+ 10 momentum shifts
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 10:41🔄 Turnover(10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:58🔄 Turnover(:58) 10-D.Maye up the middle to NE 27 for 4 yards (72-T.Togiai). FUMBLES (72-T.Togiai), RECOVERED by HOU-0-A.Al-Shaair at NE 27.
Q1 9:414️⃣ 4th Down(9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked Chicago at 54%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a +26% WPA swing play, and a key Q5 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow+ 13 momentum shifts
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:274️⃣ 4th Down(:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
Q5 4:54💥 Big Play(4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to CHI 27 for 16 yards (1-J.Johnson).
Q5 8:044️⃣ 4th Down(8:04) 18-C.Williams left tackle to 50 for 3 yards (55-B.Fiske).
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Got the winner right with Seattle (55%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 special teams play, San Francisco's B.Purdy turnover in Q1, and San Francisco's B.Purdy turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow+ 10 momentum shifts
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 15:00⚡ Special Teams18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 4:24🔄 Turnover(4:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges to SF 42 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones; 21-D.Witherspoon). FUMBLES (13-E.Jones), RECOVERED by SEA-20-J.Love at SF 43. 20-J.Love to SF 42 for 1 yard (44-K.Juszczyk).
Q3 6:18🔄 Turnover(6:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 89-L.Farrell INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones at SF 47. 13-E.Jones to SF 47 for no gain (89-L.Farrell).