Week 21 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 2 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Nailed it. We had Seattle at 58% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Seattle's M.Dickson turnover in Q3, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 12:17🔄 Turnover(12:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-83-D.Young at LA 17.
Q4 4:594️⃣ 4th Down(4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.Ferguson (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q1 12:51📍 Key Play(12:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed to LA 25 for 51 yards (31-D.Williams).
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This one stings. We liked Denver at 56%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Denver's J.Stidham turnover in Q4, and Denver's J.Stidham turnover in Q2. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 4:46💥 Big Play(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q4 2:18🔄 Turnover(2:18) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass deep right intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Gonzalez [44-K.Chaisson] at NE 36. 0-C.Gonzalez to NE 36 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
Q2 2:59🔄 Turnover(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 14 for -19 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss) [53-C.Elliss], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at DEN 12.