Week 5 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 14 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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This one stings. We liked NY Jets at 66%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q1 key play, NY Jets's B.Hall turnover in Q2, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 6:34📍 Key Play(6:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to NYJ 20 for 40 yards (8-A.Cisco) [9-W.McDonald].
Q2 2:27🔄 Turnover(2:27) 20-B.Hall left guard to DAL 13 for 10 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), RECOVERED by DAL-54-S.Williams at DAL 9. NYJ-20-B.Hall was injured during the play.
Q3 5:214️⃣ 4th Down(5:21) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 47-A.Beck (59-K.Murray) [35-M.Liufau].
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This one stings. We liked Philadelphia at 78%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a -27% WPA swing play, a +16% WPA swing play, and a +15% WPA swing play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:04💥 Big Play(:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right (26-D.Key, 2-P.Surtain).
Q4 8:17💥 Big Play(8:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to PHI 11 for 34 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q2 8:12💥 Big Play(8:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to DEN 26 for 52 yards (21-R.Moss).
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Got the winner right with Detroit (88%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Detroit's J.Goff turnover in Q1, Cincinnati's J.Browning turnover in Q2, and Cincinnati's J.Browning turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 4:56🔄 Turnover(4:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at CIN 39 for -7 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [91-T.Hendrickson], touched at CIN 26, RECOVERED by CIN-55-L.Wilson at CIN 28. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 14:49🔄 Turnover(14:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at CIN 19. 21-A.Robertson to CIN 17 for 2 yards (1-J.Chase).
Q3 14:17🔄 Turnover(14:17) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at CIN 42. 34-A.Anzalone pushed ob at CIN 28 for 14 yards (1-J.Chase).
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This one stings. We liked Baltimore at 69%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Baltimore's C.Rush turnover in Q3, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and Baltimore's C.Rush turnover in Q4. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q3 12:57🔄 Turnover(12:57) 15-C.Rush pass short right intended for 22-D.Henry INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre at BAL 46. 5-J.Pitre to BAL 38 for 8 yards (22-D.Henry).
Q3 0:334️⃣ 4th Down(:33) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 44-B.Brooks up the middle to 50 for 6 yards (40-T.Buchanan).
Q4 12:22🔄 Turnover(12:22) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre at BAL 33. 5-J.Pitre pushed ob at BAL 21 for 12 yards (89-M.Andrews).
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Nailed it. We had Jacksonville at 52% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Kansas City's P.Mahomes turnover in Q3, a +29% WPA swing play, and a +16% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 2:36🔄 Turnover(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:01💥 Big Play(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at KC 24 for 33 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q4 0:30💥 Big Play(:30) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-27-C.Conner, Defensive Holding, declined.
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Got the winner right with Indianapolis (84%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Las Vegas's G.Smith turnover in Q2, Las Vegas's G.Smith turnover in Q3, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q2 3:59🔄 Turnover(3:59) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 18-J.Bech INTERCEPTED by 97-L.Latu (90-G.Stewart) at IND 12. 97-L.Latu to IND 12 for no gain (70-S.Forsythe).
Q3 6:28🔄 Turnover(6:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 10-D.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Blackmon at LV 38. 29-M.Blackmon ran ob at LV 6 for 32 yards (70-S.Forsythe).
Q3 3:554️⃣ 4th Down(3:55) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to LV 44 for no gain (38-C.Lammons; 99-D.Buckner).
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Nailed it. We had Carolina at 66% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, T.Tagovailoa's (46-yard) explosive play, and Carolina's B.Young turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 3:314️⃣ 4th Down(3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).
Q4 4:50💨 Explosive(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:37🔄 Turnover(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIA 36 for -6 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], RECOVERED by MIA-2-B.Chubb at MIA 40. 2-B.Chubb to MIA 42 for 2 yards (82-T.Tremble).
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Nailed it. We had Minnesota at 59% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +33% WPA swing play, Minnesota's Z.Scott turnover in Q4, and a +18% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:30💥 Big Play(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 14:05🔄 Turnover(14:05) 36-Z.Scott right guard to CLE 45 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire, 93-S.Harris). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), RECOVERED by CLE-43-M.Diabate at CLE 45. PENALTY on CLE-93-S.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 45.
Q4 11:47💥 Big Play(11:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 37 for 38 yards (33-R.Hickman).
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This one stings. We liked Buffalo at 74%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Buffalo's J.Allen turnover in Q3, and Buffalo's J.Allen turnover in Q1. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:20💥 Big Play(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q3 2:58🔄 Turnover(2:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 10-K.Shakir INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at NE 10. 25-M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (10-K.Shakir).
Q1 1:54🔄 Turnover(1:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to BUF 10 for 3 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), touched at BUF 9, RECOVERED by NE-21-J.Hawkins at BUF 11.
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Got the winner right with New Orleans (61%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: NY Giants's C.Skattebo turnover in Q4, NY Giants's J.Dart turnover in Q2, and NY Giants's J.Dart turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 15:00🔄 Turnover(15:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NO 13 for -1 yards (90-B.Bresee). FUMBLES (90-B.Bresee), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at NO 14. 31-J.Howden for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:13🔄 Turnover(1:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 18-D.Slayton to NO 35 for 9 yards (56-D.Davis). FUMBLES (56-D.Davis), RECOVERED by NO-33-J.Sanker at NO 32. 33-J.Sanker pushed ob at NYG 41 for 27 yards (26-D.Singletary).
Q3 11:01🔄 Turnover(11:01) (No Huddle) 6-J.Dart sacked at NO 46 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NO-94-C.Jordan at NO 46.
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📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 3:414️⃣ 4th Down(3:41) 23-K.Williams right tackle to SF 11 for no gain (36-M.Sigle; 2-D.Lenoir).
Q4 1:07🔄 Turnover(1:07) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 2 for 1 yard (95-A.Collins). FUMBLES (95-A.Collins), RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at SF 1.
Q5 5:55💥 Big Play(5:55) 18-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
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This one stings. We liked Seattle at 62%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Seattle's S.Darnold turnover in Q4, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a +24% WPA swing play. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:58🔄 Turnover(:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David (90-L.Hall) at SEA 38. 54-L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (76-G.Zabel).
Q4 3:254️⃣ 4th Down(3:25) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 1:37💥 Big Play(1:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka to SEA 2 for 57 yards (8-C.Bryant).
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This one stings. We liked Arizona at 86%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a +29% WPA swing play, and a key Q4 key play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:03💥 Big Play(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Q4 0:32💥 Big Play(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards.
Q4 2:00📍 Key Play(2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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This one stings. We liked LA Chargers at 60%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: LA Chargers's J.Herbert turnover in Q4, a key Q2 key play, and Washington's J.Croskey-Merritt turnover in Q4. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 7:44🔄 Turnover(7:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil (95-J.Newton) at WAS 1. 0-M.Sainristil to WAS 1 for no gain (13-K.Allen).
Q2 0:34📍 Key Play(:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 11-L.McCaffrey to LAC 33 for 50 yards (26-D.Jackson).
Q4 15:00🔄 Turnover(15:00) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to LAC 41 for -5 yards (90-T.Tart). FUMBLES (90-T.Tart), RECOVERED by LAC-90-T.Tart at LAC 43.