Week 6 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 15 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Nailed it. We had Indianapolis at 61% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a +18% WPA swing play, and Indianapolis's D.Jones turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:584️⃣ 4th Down(:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu].
Q4 2:00💥 Big Play(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson to IND 12 for 30 yards (35-J.Edwards).
Q2 14:03🔄 Turnover(14:03) 17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 2-Ma.Wilson at IND 36. 2-Ma.Wilson to IND 27 for 9 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox).
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This one stings. We liked Buffalo at 67%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: B.Robinson's (81-yard) explosive play, Buffalo's J.Allen turnover in Q4, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 11:22💨 Explosive(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:51🔄 Turnover(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 0-K.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 51-D.Malone (96-Z.Harrison) at ATL 7. 51-D.Malone to ATL 13 for 6 yards.
Q3 1:044️⃣ 4th Down(1:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 26-Ty.Johnson.
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This one stings. We liked Washington at 69%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Washington's J.Daniels turnover in Q4, and C.Williams's (55-yard) explosive play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:03💥 Big Play(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q4 3:10🔄 Turnover(3:10) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.Wright at CHI 44.
Q4 10:36💨 Explosive(10:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Nailed it. We had Green Bay at 63% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Green Bay's J.Love turnover in Q1, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q1 8:51🔄 Turnover(8:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone (20-D.Turner) [44-D.Knight] at CIN 11. 22-G.Stone ran ob at CIN 36 for 25 yards (10-J.Love).
Q1 10:514️⃣ 4th Down(10:51) 10-J.Love up the middle to CIN 24 for 2 yards (58-J.Ossai; 49-B.Carter).
Q3 4:504️⃣ 4th Down(4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.
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Nailed it. We had Pittsburgh at 73% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q4 13:474️⃣ 4th Down(13:47) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 16-I.Bond to PIT 38 for 7 yards (26-B.Echols). PIT-26-B.Echols was injured during the play.
Q4 4:094️⃣ 4th Down(4:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Jeudy [96-D.Ekuale].
Q4 11:594️⃣ 4th Down(11:59) 56-L.Wypler and 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to PIT 24 for 6 yards (24-J.Porter; 25-D.Elliott).
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This one stings. We liked Dallas at 54%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a +22% WPA swing play, and Carolina's B.Young turnover in Q1. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 2:314️⃣ 4th Down(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q4 11:38💥 Big Play(11:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at CAR 20 for 45 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade) [95-D.Brown].
Q1 2:13🔄 Turnover(2:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Wilson at CAR 46. 6-D.Wilson ran ob at CAR 25 for 21 yards (79-I.Ekwonu). PENALTY on CAR-5-R.Dowdle, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 25.
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Got the winner right with Denver (70%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a +19% WPA swing play, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:144️⃣ 4th Down(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
Q4 8:15💥 Big Play(8:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 26 yards (8-A.Cisco).
Q1 1:424️⃣ 4th Down(1:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram pushed ob at NYJ 36 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
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This one stings. We liked Detroit at 63%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 7:014️⃣ 4th Down(7:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-X.Worthy (12-T.Harper) [34-A.Anzalone].
Q1 1:144️⃣ 4th Down(1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:464️⃣ 4th Down(2:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown [51-M.Danna].
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Nailed it. We had LA Chargers at 57% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +37% WPA swing play, a +25% WPA swing play, and a clutch field goal.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:34💥 Big Play(:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (23-J.Jones).
Q4 0:52💥 Big Play(:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:09💥 Big Play(:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Got the winner right with LA Rams (53%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: LA Rams's M.Stafford turnover in Q1, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 1:29🔄 Turnover(1:29) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 44 for -7 yards (94-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (94-J.Jenkins) [94-J.Jenkins], touched at BAL 46, RECOVERED by BAL-94-J.Jenkins at BAL 48. 94-J.Jenkins to LA 41 for 11 yards (73-S.Avila).
Q3 12:204️⃣ 4th Down(12:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 23-K.Williams to BAL 3 for 30 yards. Penalty on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 0:124️⃣ 4th Down(:12) 67-C.Bullock reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end to LA 3 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse).
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Got the winner right with New England (57%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, D.Maye's (53-yard) explosive play, and New Orleans's S.Rattler turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q2 5:544️⃣ 4th Down(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.
Q1 11:03💨 Explosive(11:03) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 3-D.Douglas for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:50🔄 Turnover(8:50) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to 50 for 14 yards (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss). New England challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 49 for 13 yards (53-C.Elliss; 14-R.Sp
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This one stings. We liked Philadelphia at 69%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Philadelphia's J.Hurts turnover in Q4, a key Q1 key play, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 11:36🔄 Turnover(11:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 28-C.Flott at NYG 9. 28-C.Flott pushed ob at PHI 23 for 68 yards (26-S.Barkley).
Q1 11:14📍 Key Play(11:14) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 89-L.Humphrey to PHI 22 for 34 yards (7-K.Ringo).
Q2 8:314️⃣ 4th Down(8:31) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYG 1 for 2 yards (97-D.Lawrence; 0-B.Burns).
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Got the winner right with Seattle (54%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: S.Darnold's (61-yard) explosive play, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q2 8:42💨 Explosive(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:004️⃣ 4th Down(2:00) 5-D.Brown right end pushed ob at SEA 24 for 7 yards (24-S.Griffin).
Q4 13:544️⃣ 4th Down(13:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end to SEA 26 for 4 yards (42-D.Thomas).
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Nailed it. We had Tampa Bay at 59% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: B.Mayfield's (45-yard) explosive play, a key Q2 key play, and San Francisco's M.Jones turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 2:49💨 Explosive(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 15:00📍 Key Play(15:00) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne to TB 33 for 56 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q1 10:46🔄 Turnover(10:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at SF 25. 22-K.Vildor to SF 12 for 13 yards (77-D.Puni).
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Got the winner right with Las Vegas (52%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Tennessee's C.Ward turnover in Q2, Tennessee's C.Ward turnover in Q2, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 6:12🔄 Turnover(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 3 for -9 yards (45-D.White). FUMBLES (45-D.White) [45-D.White], RECOVERED by LV-9-T.Wilson at TEN 2.
Q2 0:16🔄 Turnover(:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 17-C.Dike INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White (96-J.Laulu) at LV 23. 45-D.White to LV 23 for no gain (2-T.Spears).
Q3 11:484️⃣ 4th Down(11:48) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to TEN 35 for 11 yards (38-L.Sneed).