2025 Season Results
Record
136-85
61.5% accuracy
Brier Score
0.232
Good calibration
vs Market
-3.3%
184 games with odds
Trend
declining
-16.7% H2 vs H1
Flat Bet ROI
+28.5%
27 bets
High Edge Acc
64%
88 picks >10%
Upset Detection
53%
23/43 contrarian
Total Profit
+$336
$100 flat bets
Weekly Accuracy
Cumulative Performance
Model vs Market
-3.3%F&D Edge
Head-to-Head
-6net games
By Edge Bucket
Positive: 78gNeutral: 39gNegative: 83g
📈 Betting Value Metrics
Flat Bet ROI
+28.5%
27 total bets
Flat Bet Record
21-6
77.8% win rate
Brier Edge
-0.034
Model: 0.232
High Edge Picks
64%
88 picks >10%
Weekly Flat Bet ROI
🏈 Game-by-Game Results
Record: 0-1Accuracy: 0.0%
📊 Week 22 Context
Chaos: 🟢 LOW
Fewer upsets than normal
Upsets
0/1
0% upset rate
Historical Avg
34%
-34% vs normal
F&D Model
0/1
0% accuracy
Vegas
1/1
100% accuracy
Both Wrong
0
true upsets
0
Both Right
0
F&D Only
1
Vegas Only
0
Both Wrong
💡 Calm week - favorites dominated (0 upsets, below 34% avg). Vegas beat model by 1 games
❌
SEA @ NE
Final: 29-13
Pick: NE (50%)
Low • +17.1% edge
Weekly Breakdown
| Week | Record | Acc% | Mkt% | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 50.0% | -8.3% |
| 6 | 10-5 | 66.7% | 64.3% | 0.0% |
| 7 | 9-6 | 60.0% | 85.7% | -21.4% |
| 8 | 11-2 | 84.6% | 84.6% | 0.0% |
| 9 | 7-6 | 58.3% | 50.0% | +8.3% |
| 10 | 10-4 | 71.4% | 53.8% | +15.4% |
| 11 | 9-6 | 60.0% | 71.4% | -14.3% |
| 12 | 10-3 | 76.9% | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | 9-7 | 60.0% | 60.0% | +6.7% |
| 14 | 11-6 | 73.3% | 54.5% | +9.1% |
| 15 | 14-2 | 87.5% | N/A | N/A |
| 16 | 9-7 | 60.0% | 57.1% | +7.1% |
| 17 | 8-8 | 50.0% | 60.0% | -6.7% |
| 18 | 7-9 | 46.7% | 60.0% | -13.3% |
| 19 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| 20 | 2-2 | 50.0% | 100.0% | -33.3% |
| 21 | 0-2 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -100.0% |
| 22 | 0-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -100.0% |
By Confidence Tier
| Tier | Record | Actual | Expected | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | 5-1 | 83.3% | 81.2% | 6 |
| Medium | 40-13 | 75.5% | 69.8% | 53 |
| Low | 91-58 | 61.1% | 57.0% | 149 |
Best Week
Week 15: 87.5%(14-2)
Worst Week
Week 21: 0.0%(0-2)
Generated: 2/12/2026, 11:02:31 PM