📊 Season Results
2025 Season • 13 Weeks • 192 Games
Record
123-69
64.1% accuracy
vs Market
-0.6%
-1 net games
Brier Score
0.224
Lower is better
Best Week
88%
Week 15
Model Only
11
vs 12 market only
Trend
➡️
+2.3% 2nd half
Flat Bet ROI
+8.9%
70 bets
High Edge Acc
64%
76 picks >10%
Upset Detection
62%
21/34 contrarian
Total Profit
+$69
$100 flat bets
Weekly Accuracy
Cumulative Performance
Model vs Market
-0.6%F&D Edge
Head-to-Head
-1net games
By Edge Bucket
Positive: 64gNeutral: 36gNegative: 71g
📈 Betting Value Metrics
Flat Bet ROI
+8.9%
70 total bets
Flat Bet Record
38-32
5428.6% win rate
Brier Edge
-0.022
Model: 0.224
High Edge Picks
64%
76 picks >10%
Weekly Flat Bet ROI
🏈 Game-by-Game Results
Record: 8-8Accuracy: 50.0%
📊 Week 17 Context
Chaos: 🟠 HIGH
More upsets than normal
Upsets
6/16
38% upset rate
Historical Avg
25%
+13% vs normal
F&D Model
8/16
50% accuracy
Vegas
9/16
60% accuracy
Both Wrong
5
true upsets
7
Both Right
1
F&D Only
2
Vegas Only
5
Both Wrong
💡 High upset week - 6 upsets vs ~3 expected. Both model & Vegas wrong on 5 games (true upsets). Vegas beat model by 1 games
✅
NE @ NYJ
Final: 42-10
Pick: NE (73%)
Medium • +14.8% edge
❌
PIT @ CLE
Final: 6-13
Pick: PIT (69%)
Medium • -7.4% edge
✅
SEA @ CAR
Final: 27-10
Pick: SEA (68%)
Medium • +8.2% edge
✅
CHI @ SF
Final: 38-42
Pick: SF (67%)
Low • +7.3% edge
❌
LAR @ ATL
Final: 24-27
Pick: LAR (64%)
Low • -13.8% edge
❌
DET @ MIN
Final: 10-23
Pick: DET (63%)
Low • +12.7% edge
✅
JAX @ IND
Final: 23-17
Pick: JAX (62%)
Low • +7.0% edge
✅
DAL @ WAS
Final: 30-23
Pick: DAL (58%)
Low • +17.4% edge
✅
ARI @ CIN
Final: 14-37
Pick: CIN (57%)
Low • -17.9% edge
✅
NO @ TEN
Final: 34-26
Pick: NO (57%)
Low • -0.5% edge
❌
HOU @ LAC
Final: 20-16
Pick: LAC (56%)
Low • +2.7% edge
❌
BAL @ GB
Final: 41-24
Pick: GB (54%)
Low • -9.4% edge
❌
DEN @ KC
Final: 20-13
Pick: KC (52%)
Low • +39.6% edge
❌
TB @ MIA
Final: 17-20
Pick: TB (52%)
Low • +19.5% edge
✅
PHI @ BUF
Final: 13-12
Pick: PHI (52%)
Low • -3.3% edge
❌
NYG @ LV
Final: 34-10
Pick: LV (51%)
Low • +7.9% edge
Weekly Breakdown
| Week | Record | Acc% | Mkt% | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 50.0% | -8.3% |
| 6 | 10-5 | 66.7% | 64.3% | 0.0% |
| 7 | 9-6 | 60.0% | 85.7% | -21.4% |
| 8 | 11-2 | 84.6% | 84.6% | 0.0% |
| 9 | 7-6 | 58.3% | 50.0% | +8.3% |
| 10 | 10-4 | 71.4% | 53.8% | +15.4% |
| 11 | 9-6 | 60.0% | 71.4% | -14.3% |
| 12 | 10-3 | 76.9% | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | 9-7 | 60.0% | 60.0% | +6.7% |
| 14 | 11-6 | 73.3% | 54.5% | +9.1% |
| 15 | 14-2 | 87.5% | N/A | N/A |
| 16 | 9-7 | 60.0% | 57.1% | +7.1% |
| 17 | 8-8 | 50.0% | 60.0% | -6.7% |
By Confidence Tier
| Tier | Record | Actual | Expected | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | 4-0 | 100.0% | 81.3% | 4 |
| Medium | 34-12 | 73.9% | 69.7% | 46 |
| Low | 84-45 | 65.1% | 57.1% | 129 |
⭐ Best Week
Week 15: 87.5%(14-2)
❌ Worst Week
Week 5: 46.2%(6-7)
Generated: 1/2/2026, 2:16:05 PM