Week 10 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 14 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Got the winner right with Seattle (64%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Arizona's K.Beachum turnover in Q1, S.Darnold's (43-yard) explosive play, and Arizona's J.Brissett turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 9:32🔄 Turnover(9:32) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 32 for -11 yards (48-T.Knight). FUMBLES (48-T.Knight) [48-T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at ARI 34. 0-D.Lawrence for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The rul
Q1 11:01💨 Explosive(11:01) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 14:15🔄 Turnover(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 29 for -12 yards (48-T.Knight). FUMBLES (48-T.Knight) [48-T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at ARI 22. 0-D.Lawrence for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Nailed it. We had Indianapolis at 67% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: J.Taylor's (83-yard) explosive play, a +23% WPA swing play, and a -18% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 6:16💨 Explosive(6:16) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q5 6:50💥 Big Play(6:50) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 84-T.Warren pushed ob at ATL 33 for 23 yards (24-A.Terrell).
Q5 8:19💥 Big Play(8:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -12 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
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This one stings. We liked Minnesota at 54%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Minnesota's T.Loop turnover in Q3, Minnesota's J.McCarthy turnover in Q3, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 10:19🔄 Turnover33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to MIN 0. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 23 yards (39-K.Jackson; 32-T.Simpson). FUMBLES (39-K.Jackson), RECOVERED by BAL-39-K.Jackson at MIN 23.
Q3 12:55🔄 Turnover(12:55) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL 2. 44-M.Humphrey ran ob at BAL 29 for 27 yards (74-D.Jackson; 33-A.Jones).
Q3 5:504️⃣ 4th Down(5:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short middle to 3-J.Addison (3-C.Awuzie). PENALTY on MIN-19-A.Thielen, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 46.
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This one stings. We liked Buffalo at 68%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Buffalo's J.Allen turnover in Q3, Buffalo's J.Allen turnover in Q4, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 6:05🔄 Turnover(6:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 9-I.Melifonwu at MIA -2. Touchback.
Q4 7:19🔄 Turnover(7:19) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left tackle to MIA 44 for 15 yards (20-J.Brooks; 23-J.Jones). FUMBLES (20-J.Brooks), RECOVERED by MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 38.
Q1 1:224️⃣ 4th Down(1:22) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-J.Hawes (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
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Nailed it. We had NY Jets at 59% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: J.Fields's (42-yard) explosive play, a key Q1 special teams play, and NY Jets's J.Fields turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q4 14:21💨 Explosive(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit].
Q1 6:34⚡ Special Teams25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 1. 34-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:50🔄 Turnover(10:50) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 7-J.Fields pass deep middle intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman at NYJ 37. 33-R.Hickman to NYJ 22 for 15 yards (5-G.Wilson).
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Got the winner right with Detroit (71%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q3 fourth down conversion, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 7:094️⃣ 4th Down(7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:004️⃣ 4th Down(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta pushed ob at WAS 27 for 14 yards (4-F.Luvu) [98-S.Day].
Q2 5:054️⃣ 4th Down(5:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DET 6 for 8 yards (29-A.Maddox).
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Nailed it. We had Houston at 70% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +30% WPA swing play, Jacksonville's T.Lawrence turnover in Q4, and Houston's D.Mills turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:37💥 Big Play(:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:07🔄 Turnover(:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 30 for -5 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at JAX 32. 90-S.Rankins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:10🔄 Turnover(14:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at HOU 40. 22-J.Jones to HOU 40 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
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Got the winner right with LA Rams (56%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, San Francisco's M.Jones turnover in Q1, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 3:464️⃣ 4th Down(3:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to LA 6 for 11 yards (3-K.Curl). Penalty on LA-3-K.Curl, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q1 3:24🔄 Turnover(3:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 15-J.Jennings to LA 26 for 13 yards (53-N.Landman; 3-K.Curl) [37-Q.Lake]. FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), touched at LA 28, RECOVERED by LA-26-K.Kinchens at LA 28. 26-K.Kinchens to LA 41 for 13 yards (74-S.Burford).
Q3 6:204️⃣ 4th Down(6:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to SF 24 for 4 yards (0-R.Green).
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Got the winner right with Denver (77%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Denver's B.Nix turnover in Q4, Las Vegas's G.Smith turnover in Q3, and a key Q4 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 7:16🔄 Turnover(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Kelly at DEN 45. 36-K.Kelly to DEN 45 for no gain (11-T.Franklin).
Q3 5:34🔄 Turnover(5:34) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 92-D.Tillman at DEN 44. 92-D.Tillman to LV 33 for 23 yards (87-M.Mayer).
Q4 4:30📍 Key Play(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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This one stings. We liked Tampa Bay at 59%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, New England's D.Maye turnover in Q4, and D.Maye's (72-yard) explosive play. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:554️⃣ 4th Down(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
Q4 5:25🔄 Turnover(5:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB -5. Touchback.
Q1 0:11💨 Explosive(:11) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-C.Braswell].
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This one stings. We liked Carolina at 55%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: T.Shough's (62-yard) explosive play, Carolina's B.Young turnover in Q3, and Carolina's B.Young turnover in Q4. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 9:31💨 Explosive(9:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 4:34🔄 Turnover(4:34) 9-B.Young FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 19, touched at NO 19, RECOVERED by NO-20-P.Werner at NO 17.
Q4 13:00🔄 Turnover(13:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at NO 46. 1-A.Taylor pushed ob at CAR 43 for 11 yards (4-T.McMillan).
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Nailed it. We had Chicago at 64% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +17% WPA swing play, a key Q4 key play, and a key Q4 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:54💥 Big Play(1:54) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:14📍 Key Play(2:14) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 10-L.Burden to NYG 19 for 27 yards (27-T.Nubin; 38-K.Black).
Q4 3:06📍 Key Play(3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at NYG 27 for -11 yards (35-C.Gardner-Johnson).
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Nailed it. We had Philadelphia at 51% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Green Bay's J.Jacobs turnover in Q4, a clutch field goal, and Philadelphia's J.Hurts turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:30🔄 Turnover(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q4 0:02💥 Big Play(:02) 17-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q1 0:59🔄 Turnover(:59) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right tackle to GB 14 for 10 yards (29-X.McKinney, 56-E.Cooper). FUMBLES (56-E.Cooper), RECOVERED by GB-25-K.Nixon at GB 14. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 36 for 22 yards (65-L.Johnson).
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Got the winner right with LA Chargers (51%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Pittsburgh's A.Rodgers turnover in Q2, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 2:16🔄 Turnover(2:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for 4-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mickens at PIT 48. 27-R.Mickens to PIT 38 for 10 yards (14-K.Gainwell).
Q4 12:444️⃣ 4th Down(12:44) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 4-D.Metcalf (20-C.Hart).
Q1 8:594️⃣ 4th Down(8:59) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 42 for 2 yards (6-P.Queen; 97-Ca.Heyward).