Week 9 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 14 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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This one stings. We liked Dallas at 54%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q2 special teams play, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and Dallas's D.Prescott turnover in Q4. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 4:04⚡ Special Teams(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:374️⃣ 4th Down(10:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ARI 11 for -7 yards (10-J.Sweat).
Q4 4:46🔄 Turnover(4:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to ARI 39 for -2 yards (0-W.Johnson, 50-C.Simon). FUMBLES (50-C.Simon), RECOVERED by ARI-27-A.Davis-Gaither at ARI 37.
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Got the winner right with New England (61%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a -18% WPA swing play, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 2:09💥 Big Play(2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on ATL-9-M.Penix, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
Q4 4:444️⃣ 4th Down(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 4:40📍 Key Play39-J.Romo extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Got the winner right with Baltimore (56%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Miami's T.Tagovailoa turnover in Q1, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 9:46🔄 Turnover(9:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 84-T.Washington to MIA 18 for 11 yards (12-A.Gilman; 40-T.Buchanan). FUMBLES (12-A.Gilman), RECOVERED by BAL-12-A.Gilman at MIA 18. 12-A.Gilman to MIA 7 for 11 yards (84-T.Washington; 85-G.Dulcich).
Q1 8:304️⃣ 4th Down(8:30) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:084️⃣ 4th Down(1:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 28-D.Achane.
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This one stings. We liked Green Bay at 66%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Green Bay's J.Love turnover in Q3, and Green Bay's S.Williams turnover in Q1. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:01💥 Big Play(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q3 6:42🔄 Turnover(6:42) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig [95-D.Brown] at CAR 26. 7-T.Moehrig ran ob at GB 38 for 36 yards (23-E.Wilson).
Q1 6:42🔄 Turnover(6:42) 83-S.Williams left end to CAR 15 for 1 yard (56-C.Rozeboom; 8-Ja.Horn). FUMBLES (56-C.Rozeboom), RECOVERED by CAR-21-N.Scott at CAR 16.
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Got the winner right with Chicago (57%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: C.Williams's (58-yard) explosive play, a key Q1 special teams play, and Cincinnati's J.Flacco turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:25💨 Explosive(:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 15:00⚡ Special Teams8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to CIN 2. 15-C.Jones for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 15:00🔄 Turnover(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco sacked at CIN 38 for -10 yards (94-A.Booker). FUMBLES (94-A.Booker) [94-A.Booker], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at CIN 38.
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Nailed it. We had Denver at 57% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +20% WPA swing play, a clutch field goal, and a +17% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 2:18💥 Big Play(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 48 for 13 yards (29-M.Stewart).
Q4 0:03💥 Big Play(:03) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on HOU-11-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q4 0:44💥 Big Play(:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left end ran ob at HOU 36 for 25 yards (29-M.Stewart).
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This one stings. We liked Indianapolis at 53%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Pittsburgh's C.Waitman turnover in Q1, Indianapolis's D.Jones turnover in Q2, and Indianapolis's D.Jones turnover in Q2. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 6:03🔄 Turnover(6:03) 3-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-26-B.Echols at IND 11.
Q2 5:21🔄 Turnover(5:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 41-P.Wilson at IND 31. 41-P.Wilson to IND 14 for 17 yards (60-T.Bortolini).
Q2 11:27🔄 Turnover(11:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at PIT 45 for -7 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 44.
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Nailed it. We had Jacksonville at 59% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a -46% WPA swing play, a -44% WPA swing play, and a -42% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 0:20💥 Big Play(:20) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:10💥 Big Play(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 29 for -5 yards (sack split by 41-J.Hines-Allen and 90-E.Ogbah).
Q5 0:16💥 Big PlayTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 17-T.Lockett is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
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Nailed it. We had Buffalo at 53% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +16% WPA swing play, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 7:34💥 Big Play(7:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at KC 8 for 47 yards (20-N.Williams; 22-T.McDuffie).
Q2 4:154️⃣ 4th Down(4:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 4-R.Rice (24-C.Bishop).
Q4 11:344️⃣ 4th Down(11:34) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with LA Chargers (61%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: LA Chargers's J.Herbert turnover in Q1, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q3 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (3)
Q1 11:25🔄 Turnover(11:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 50-C.Barton at LAC 24. 50-C.Barton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:094️⃣ 4th Down(7:09) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (2-E.Molden; 6-D.Perryman). LAC-99-J.Caldwell was injured during the play.
Q3 12:24📍 Key Play(12:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to LAC 40 for 29 yards (3-D.James).
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This one stings. We liked Detroit at 53%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: J.Goff's (40-yard) explosive play, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 12:51💨 Explosive(12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:374️⃣ 4th Down(10:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to MIN 24 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith; 44-J.Metellus).
Q2 9:434️⃣ 4th Down(9:43) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with LA Rams (78%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: New Orleans's A.Kamara turnover in Q3, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 4:11🔄 Turnover(4:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to LA 47 for 3 yards (3-K.Curl, 53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-26-K.Kinchens at LA 48.
Q4 12:434️⃣ 4th Down(12:43) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 6:004️⃣ 4th Down(6:00) 12-P.Nacua left end to NO 4 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis). LA-12-P.Nacua was injured during the play.
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Got the winner right with Seattle (60%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Washington's J.Daniels turnover in Q2, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and Washington's J.Myers turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 12:55🔄 Turnover(12:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 83-J.Lane INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Okada [21-D.Witherspoon] at SEA 40. 39-T.Okada pushed ob at SEA 40 for no gain (83-J.Lane).
Q2 15:004️⃣ 4th Down(15:00) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to SEA 48 for 10 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q2 8:52🔄 Turnover5-J.Myers kicks 60 yards from SEA 40 to WAS 0. 83-J.Lane to WAS 26 for 26 yards (95-B.Pili). FUMBLES (95-B.Pili), RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at WAS 26.
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This one stings. We liked NY Giants at 53%, but variance had other plans. The game turned on San Francisco's M.Jones turnover in Q2 and a key Q1 fourth down conversion. 50% of swing plays were predictable — we need to factor these tendencies better.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (2)
Q2 0:38🔄 Turnover(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 17 for -11 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Carter at SF 23. 51-A.Carter to SF 27 for -4 yards (71-T.Williams).
Q1 9:014️⃣ 4th Down(9:01) 10-M.Jones up the middle to SF 43 for 2 yards (53-D.Muasau).