Week 11 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 15 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Got the winner right with Baltimore (66%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, Cleveland's C.Bojorquez turnover in Q2, and Baltimore's L.Jackson turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 2:394️⃣ 4th Down(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:26🔄 Turnover(10:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-9-G.Delpit at BAL 6.
Q3 4:37🔄 Turnover(4:37) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 88-C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at CLE 14. 49-C.Schwesinger to CLE 23 for 9 yards (42-P.Ricard).
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This one stings. We liked Atlanta at 59%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +41% WPA swing play, a clutch field goal, and a +19% WPA swing play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 8:06💥 Big Play(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to ATL 15 for 54 yards (55-K.Elliss).
Q4 0:21💥 Big Play(:21) 45-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 1:15💥 Big Play(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked Minnesota at 50%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a +18% WPA swing play, and a +17% WPA swing play. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:04💥 Big Play(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q4 0:56💥 Big Play(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:50💥 Big Play16-W.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to CHI 4. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at MIN 40 for 56 yards (55-E.Wilson).
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Got the winner right with Pittsburgh (56%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Cincinnati's J.Flacco turnover in Q3, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and Cincinnati's J.Flacco turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q3 0:51🔄 Turnover(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger [90-T.Watt] at PIT 27. 29-K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 2:164️⃣ 4th Down(2:16) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 39 for 1 yard (49-B.Carter; 42-O.Burks). Cincinnati challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q4 3:34🔄 Turnover(3:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 86-N.Fant to CIN 33 for 5 yards (26-B.Echols). FUMBLES (26-B.Echols), RECOVERED by PIT-42-J.Pierre at CIN 34. 42-J.Pierre for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-26-B.Echols has returned to the game.
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Got the winner right with Dallas (65%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Dallas's D.Prescott turnover in Q1, Las Vegas's G.Smith turnover in Q2, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 9:20🔄 Turnover(9:20) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 9 for -7 yards (98-M.Crosby). FUMBLES (98-M.Crosby) [98-M.Crosby], RECOVERED by LV-97-T.Hemingway at DAL 15.
Q2 2:35🔄 Turnover(2:35) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 14-M.Bell (59-K.Murray) at DAL 7. 14-M.Bell pushed ob at DAL 31 for 24 yards (1-T.Tucker).
Q2 5:194️⃣ 4th Down(5:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked Detroit at 61%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Detroit's J.Goff turnover in Q1, J.Goff's (40-yard) explosive play, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 11:18🔄 Turnover(11:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 89-B.Wright INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean (90-J.Davis) at DET 32. 33-C.DeJean to DET 11 for 21 yards (14-A.St. Brown; 60-G.Glasgow).
Q2 5:12💨 Explosive(5:12) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-1-J.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 13:074️⃣ 4th Down(13:07) (No Huddle) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 48 for no gain (97-M.Ojomo).
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Got the winner right with Green Bay (65%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a +22% WPA swing play, NY Giants's J.Winston turnover in Q4, and a +17% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 5:56💥 Big Play(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 83-S.Williams to NYG 20 for 33 yards (28-C.Flott) [0-B.Burns].
Q4 0:40🔄 Turnover(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams at GB -5. Touchback.
Q4 4:07💥 Big Play(4:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with Houston (75%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a +21% WPA swing play, and a +18% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:02💥 Big Play(:02) 42-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 1:55💥 Big Play(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo ran ob at HOU 7 for 39 yards [55-D.Hunter].
Q4 0:50💥 Big Play(:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at TEN 41 for 17 yards (37-A.Hooker).
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This one stings. We liked Kansas City at 60%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a +15% WPA swing play, and a key Q4 key play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:03💥 Big Play(:03) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q3 3:11💥 Big Play(3:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 80-T.Thornton to DEN 11 for 61 yards (29-J.McMillian) [98-J.Franklin-Myers].
Q4 10:04📍 Key Play(10:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked LA Chargers at 71%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Jacksonville's T.Lawrence turnover in Q2, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 12:54🔄 Turnover(12:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at JAX 42. 26-D.Jackson pushed ob at JAX 42 for no gain (17-T.Patrick).
Q2 6:324️⃣ 4th Down(6:32) 33-B.Tuten right end to LAC 32 for 4 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q1 8:174️⃣ 4th Down(8:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Meyers.
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Got the winner right with New England (66%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 fourth down conversion, NY Jets's J.Fields turnover in Q4, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (3)
Q1 3:564️⃣ 4th Down(3:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q4 7:34🔄 Turnover(7:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 11, RECOVERED by NE-33-A.Jennings at NYJ 11.
Q4 2:024️⃣ 4th Down(2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Ruckert (24-D.Pettus).
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Nailed it. We had LA Rams at 51% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Seattle's S.Darnold turnover in Q1, and Seattle's S.Darnold turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:01💥 Big Play(:01) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q1 10:59🔄 Turnover(10:59) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 34. 26-K.Kinchens pushed ob at SEA 3 for 31 yards (14-S.Darnold).
Q3 1:15🔄 Turnover(1:15) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 47. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 25 for 22 yards (72-A.Lucas).
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This one stings. We liked Arizona at 66%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +27% WPA swing play, a key Q1 key play, and Arizona's J.Brissett turnover in Q3. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 15:00💥 Big Play38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 9-S.Moore to ARI 1 for 98 yards (13-K.Clark).
Q1 3:03📍 Key Play(3:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 40 yards (59-C.Robinson; 46-J.Weeks).
Q3 4:44🔄 Turnover(4:44) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 84-E.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Lenoir [91-S.Okuayinonu] at SF 22. 2-D.Lenoir to ARI 14 for 64 yards (22-M.Carter).
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Got the winner right with Buffalo (51%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: J.Allen's (52-yard) explosive play, Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q3, and Buffalo's J.Allen turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 0:45💨 Explosive(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 4:05🔄 Turnover(4:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bishop at TB 37. 24-C.Bishop to TB 25 for 12 yards (62-G.Barton).
Q1 10:34🔄 Turnover(10:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish [0-Y.Diaby] at BUF 10. 25-J.Parrish to BUF 7 for 3 yards (1-C.Samuel).
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Nailed it. We had Miami at 56% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Washington's M.Mariota turnover in Q5, and Miami's J.Bailey turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:15💥 Big Play(:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q5 10:00🔄 Turnover(10:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Jones [2-B.Chubb] at WAS 40. 23-J.Jones to WAS 33 for 7 yards (1-D.Samuel).
Q4 4:21🔄 Turnover(4:21) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to WAS 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-M.Sainristil MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-27-E.Bonner at WAS 42.