Week 12 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 14 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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This one stings. We liked New Orleans at 58%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Atlanta's K.Cousins turnover in Q2, a -15% WPA swing play, and New Orleans's T.Shough turnover in Q1. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 6:53🔄 Turnover(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 12:22💥 Big Play(12:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill to ATL 5 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 12. 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NO-7-T.Hill, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at ATL 1.
Q1 13:00🔄 Turnover(13:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 39, touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by ATL-20-D.Alford at NO 41. 20-D.Alford to NO 39 for 2 yards (6-T.Shough).
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This one stings. We liked Buffalo at 58%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, Buffalo's J.Allen turnover in Q4, and a key Q2 special teams play. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:514️⃣ 4th Down(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed).
Q4 0:24🔄 Turnover(:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 9. 2-C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). Penalty on BUF-13-G.Davis, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 1:56⚡ Special Teams15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. 22-R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Nailed it. We had San Francisco at 65% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Carolina's B.Young turnover in Q1, San Francisco's B.Purdy turnover in Q2, and San Francisco's B.Purdy turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 1:28🔄 Turnover(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
Q2 6:27🔄 Turnover(6:27) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 1-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 45. 8-Ja.Horn ran ob at SF 33 for 22 yards (68-C.McKivitz).
Q1 3:40🔄 Turnover(3:40) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at SF 30. 8-Ja.Horn to SF 16 for 14 yards (44-K.Juszczyk).
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This one stings. We liked Las Vegas at 51%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q1 key play, Cleveland's S.Sanders turnover in Q2, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 1:43📍 Key Play(1:43) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep right to 16-I.Bond to LV 2 for 52 yards (30-D.Holmes) [98-M.Crosby].
Q2 11:28🔄 Turnover(11:28) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Snowden [69-A.Butler] at CLE 44. 49-C.Snowden to CLE 26 for 18 yards (78-J.Conklin; 12-S.Sanders).
Q3 0:584️⃣ 4th Down(:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker.
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Got the winner right with Kansas City (58%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a +33% WPA swing play, a +27% WPA swing play, and a +23% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 5:33💥 Big Play(5:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy to IND 45 for 31 yards (7-C.Ward) [20-N.Cross].
Q5 8:02💥 Big Play(8:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to KC 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 10 for no gain (31-T.Goodson).
Q5 4:38💥 Big Play(4:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 21 yards (23-K.Moore; 20-N.Cross).
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This one stings. We liked Arizona at 50%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q5 fourth down conversion, a clutch field goal, and a +27% WPA swing play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 4:074️⃣ 4th Down(4:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 89-X.Weaver (21-C.Braswell, 42-A.Wingard).
Q5 7:51💥 Big Play(7:51) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q4 7:19💥 Big Play(7:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-G.Dortch for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with Green Bay (73%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Green Bay's D.Whelan turnover in Q3, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and Minnesota's J.McCarthy turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q3 11:49🔄 Turnover(11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.
Q2 10:314️⃣ 4th Down(10:31) 27-J.Mason up the middle to GB 18 for -1 yards (55-K.Enagbare).
Q4 7:36🔄 Turnover(7:36) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-I.McDuffie (52-R.Gary) at MIN 40. 58-I.McDuffie to MIN 40 for no gain (33-A.Jones).
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This one stings. We liked Cincinnati at 50%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Cincinnati's J.Flacco turnover in Q2, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 7:51🔄 Turnover(7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:514️⃣ 4th Down(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley to NE 45 for 12 yards (25-M.Jones) [21-J.Hawkins]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at NE 45 for 12 yards [21-J.Hawkins].
Q4 0:234️⃣ 4th Down(:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki (25-M.Jones) [44-K.Chaisson].
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Nailed it. We had Detroit at 82% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a key Q5 fourth down conversion, a -41% WPA swing play, and a key Q5 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 4:264️⃣ 4th Down(4:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at DET 31 for -4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
Q5 9:42💥 Big Play39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q5 8:434️⃣ 4th Down(8:43) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles left end ran ob at NYG 41 for 11 yards (32-B.Branch). Penalty on DET-54-A.McNeill, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Nailed it. We had Baltimore at 73% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: NY Jets's B.Hall turnover in Q4, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 6:58🔄 Turnover(6:58) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall right end to BAL 2 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 41-D.Jones). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-12-A.Gilman at BAL 3.
Q3 6:424️⃣ 4th Down(6:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Metchie.
Q1 12:004️⃣ 4th Down(12:00) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 29 for 2 yards (91-J.Briggs; 44-J.Sherwood).
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This one stings. We liked Philadelphia at 62%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Dallas's B.Anger turnover in Q4, a clutch field goal, and a +16% WPA swing play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 5:25🔄 Turnover(5:25) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 12 for 10 yards (38-A.Clark; 14-M.Bell). FUMBLES (38-A.Clark), touched at PHI 7, RECOVERED by DAL-44-T.Sieg at PHI 8. PHI-87-X.Gipson was injured during the play.
Q4 0:03💥 Big Play(:03) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q4 11:48💥 Big Play(11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Nailed it. We had Chicago at 52% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Pittsburgh's M.Rudolph turnover in Q3, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and Chicago's C.Williams turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 4:04🔄 Turnover(4:04) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at CHI 45 for -8 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], touched at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-98-M.Sweat at CHI 46. ** Injury Update: PIT-4-D.Metcalf has returned to the game.
Q2 1:324️⃣ 4th Down(1:32) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end pushed ob at CHI 1 for 55 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q2 14:54🔄 Turnover(14:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI -2 for -12 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-51-N.Herbig at CHI -1. TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with Seattle (76%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: S.Darnold's (63-yard) explosive play, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 11:11💨 Explosive(11:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:094️⃣ 4th Down(12:09) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 84-G.Helm to SEA 32 for 10 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q2 1:544️⃣ 4th Down(1:54) 36-J.Chestnut up the middle to SEA 40 for no gain (95-B.Pili; 42-D.Thomas).
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Got the winner right with LA Rams (63%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q1, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 1:54🔄 Turnover(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 13:024️⃣ 4th Down(13:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LA-9-M.Stafford, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at TB 40.
Q2 1:434️⃣ 4th Down(1:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Shepard (1-E.Forbes).