Week 13 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 16 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Nailed it. We had Tampa Bay at 53% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Arizona's J.Brissett turnover in Q1, Arizona's J.Fryar turnover in Q3, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 3:47🔄 Turnover(3:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield (35-J.Dean) at TB 9. 31-A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (20-Z.Knight; 4-G.Dortch).
Q3 14:07🔄 Turnover(14:07) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight up the middle to TB 43 for 2 yards (90-L.Hall). FUMBLES (90-L.Hall), RECOVERED by TB-23-T.Smith at TB 40.
Q4 0:554️⃣ 4th Down(:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 14-M.Wilson (8-S.Dennis).
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Nailed it. We had NY Jets at 54% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a +22% WPA swing play, and T.Taylor's (52-yard) explosive play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:05💥 Big Play(:05) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q4 8:52💥 Big Play(8:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-D.Sills for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:05💨 Explosive(9:05) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with Buffalo (66%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Pittsburgh's S.Anderson turnover in Q3, Buffalo's J.Cook turnover in Q2, and Pittsburgh's M.Rudolph turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 14:54🔄 Turnover(14:54) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at PIT 17. 47-C.Benford for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-8-A.Rodgers was injured during the play.
Q2 10:40🔄 Turnover(10:40) 4-J.Cook left end to BUF 42 for -3 yards (51-N.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-N.Herbig), touched at BUF 40, RECOVERED by PIT-6-P.Queen at BUF 39.
Q3 13:22🔄 Turnover(13:22) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left intended for 80-D.Washington INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 44. 47-C.Benford ran ob at BUF 44 for no gain.
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This one stings. We liked Philadelphia at 66%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Chicago's C.Williams turnover in Q3, Philadelphia's J.Hurts turnover in Q3, and a +17% WPA swing play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 6:44🔄 Turnover(6:44) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 25-K.Monangai INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt at CHI 47. 58-J.Hunt to CHI 36 for 11 yards (18-C.Williams).
Q3 4:46🔄 Turnover(4:46) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to CHI 11 for 1 yard (26-N.Wright). FUMBLES (26-N.Wright), RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.Wright at CHI 13.
Q3 8:11💥 Big Play(8:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked Baltimore at 70%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Baltimore's L.Jackson turnover in Q1, Baltimore's L.Jackson turnover in Q2, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 3:36🔄 Turnover(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 6 for -9 yards (58-J.Ossai). FUMBLES (58-J.Ossai) [58-J.Ossai], RECOVERED by CIN-52-C.Johnson at BAL 6. 52-C.Johnson to BAL 2 for 4 yards (8-L.Jackson).
Q2 0:36🔄 Turnover(:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 13 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 15, RECOVERED by CIN-52-C.Johnson at BAL 19.
Q1 2:354️⃣ 4th Down(2:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (14-K.Hamilton).
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Nailed it. We had Denver at 65% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a -47% WPA swing play, a +43% WPA swing play, and a key Q5 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 2:47💥 Big PlayTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 26-J.McNichols is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q5 3:58💥 Big Play(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards (21-R.Moss).
Q5 2:504️⃣ 4th Down(2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked Detroit at 58%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, J.Love's (51-yard) explosive play, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 14:254️⃣ 4th Down(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:38💨 Explosive(10:38) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:554️⃣ 4th Down(10:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.
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This one stings. We liked Indianapolis at 56%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a +15% WPA swing play, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:494️⃣ 4th Down(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].
Q4 12:44💥 Big Play(12:44) (Shotgun) 12-N.Collins left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:194️⃣ 4th Down(10:19) Direct snap to 84-T.Warren. 84-T.Warren FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 10, recovered by IND-28-J.Taylor at HOU 11. 28-J.Taylor to HOU 11 for no gain (95-D.Barnett, 4-K.Lassiter).
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Got the winner right with Jacksonville (65%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 key play, Tennessee's C.Little turnover in Q1, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 3:25📍 Key Play(3:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 3-J.Meyers to TEN 6 for 50 yards (33-C.Gray).
Q1 1:04🔄 Turnover39-C.Little kicks 52 yards from JAX 35 to TEN 13. 17-C.Dike to TEN 38 for 25 yards (80-Q.Morris). Jacksonville challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 39-C.Little kicks 52 yards from JAX 35 to TEN 13. 17-C.Dike to TEN 38 for 25 yards (80-Q.Morris, 36-L.Allen). FU
Q2 0:254️⃣ 4th Down(:25) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 20-T.Pollard [41-J.Hines-Allen].
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This one stings. We liked Kansas City at 62%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +18% WPA swing play, Dallas's D.Prescott turnover in Q1, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 13:21💥 Big Play(13:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to KC 6 for 39 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
Q1 13:51🔄 Turnover(13:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left intended for 3-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Watson [21-J.Hicks] at KC 49. 35-J.Watson to DAL 37 for 14 yards (87-J.Ferguson).
Q4 14:564️⃣ 4th Down(14:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked LA Rams at 73%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: B.Young's (43-yard) explosive play, LA Rams's M.Stafford turnover in Q4, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 6:43💨 Explosive(6:43) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:34🔄 Turnover(2:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (95-D.Brown). FUMBLES (95-D.Brown) [95-D.Brown], RECOVERED by CAR-98-D.Wonnum at CAR 30. 98-D.Wonnum to CAR 49 for 19 yards (15-K.Mumpfield). PENALTY on CAR, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 49.
Q3 8:544️⃣ 4th Down(8:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with LA Chargers (78%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: K.Vidal's (59-yard) explosive play, LA Chargers's J.Herbert turnover in Q2, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 14:13💨 Explosive(14:13) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:39🔄 Turnover(8:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Kelly at LV 2. 36-K.Kelly ran ob at LV 2 for no gain.
Q2 6:374️⃣ 4th Down(6:37) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left guard to LV 18 for no gain (45-D.White; 69-A.Butler).
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Got the winner right with Seattle (72%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Minnesota's M.Brosmer turnover in Q2, Seattle's S.Darnold turnover in Q2, and Minnesota's M.Brosmer turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 3:14🔄 Turnover(3:14) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. 13-E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:26🔄 Turnover(5:26) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 15 for -7 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner) [15-D.Turner], RECOVERED by MIN-61-J.Redmond at SEA 13.
Q3 1:09🔄 Turnover(1:09) 12-M.Brosmer pass deep right intended for 1-J.Nailor INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 21. 8-C.Bryant to SEA 21 for no gain (1-J.Nailor).
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Nailed it. We had Miami at 66% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a -26% WPA swing play, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a -16% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:17💥 Big Play39-C.Smyth kicks onside 10 yards from NO 35 to NO 45. RECOVERED by NO-14-D.Vele. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 0:354️⃣ 4th Down(:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).
Q4 1:17💥 Big PlayTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 14-D.Vele is intercepted. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 29-M.Fitzpatrick intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
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Got the winner right with New England (64%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 special teams play, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and NY Giants's A.Borregales turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 5:37⚡ Special Teams(5:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:284️⃣ 4th Down(6:28) (Field Goal formation) 12-J.Gillan right end to NE 42 for -13 yards (98-J.Pharms).
Q2 3:29🔄 Turnover36-A.Borregales kicks 59 yards from NE 35 to NYG 6. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 21 yards (15-M.Mapu; 53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (15-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NYG 27. NYG-80-G.Olszewski was injured during the play.
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Got the winner right with San Francisco (58%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 key play, a key Q2 key play, and Cleveland's H.Fannin turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 10:40📍 Key Play(10:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to SF 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at CLE 16 for 66 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
Q2 0:47📍 Key Play(:47) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep left to 44-H.Fannin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:08🔄 Turnover(7:08) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 44-H.Fannin. 44-H.Fannin FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, RECOVERED by SF-57-L.Gifford at CLE 32.