Week 14 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 14 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Nailed it. We had Green Bay at 62% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Green Bay's J.Love turnover in Q1, Chicago's C.Williams turnover in Q4, and a key Q4 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 5:56🔄 Turnover(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Gardner-Johnson at CHI 36. 35-C.Gardner-Johnson ran ob at GB 36 for 28 yards (50-Z.Tom).
Q4 0:27🔄 Turnover(:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.
Q4 3:37📍 Key Play(3:37) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Nailed it. We had Buffalo at 65% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Cincinnati's J.Burrow turnover in Q4, Buffalo's J.Cook turnover in Q3, and Cincinnati's J.Burrow turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 5:35🔄 Turnover(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 0:52🔄 Turnover(:52) 4-J.Cook left tackle to CIN 2 for no gain (20-D.Turner; 27-J.Battle). FUMBLES (20-D.Turner), RECOVERED by CIN-42-O.Burks at CIN -3. Touchback.
Q4 5:19🔄 Turnover(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa (52-J.Phillips) at CIN 30. 57-A.Epenesa to CIN 29 for 1 yard (66-D.Risner).
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Got the winner right with Detroit (68%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: D.Prescott's (42-yard) explosive play, Dallas's D.Prescott turnover in Q3, and Dallas's D.Prescott turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 9:59💨 Explosive(9:59) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:55🔄 Turnover(14:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 3-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Barnes (21-A.Robertson) at DAL 37. 55-D.Barnes ran ob at DAL 14 for 23 yards (4-D.Prescott).
Q2 6:28🔄 Turnover(6:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DET 49 for 4 yards (46-J.Campbell; 21-A.Robertson). FUMBLES (46-J.Campbell), touched at 50, RECOVERED by DET-32-B.Branch at DET 47.
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Got the winner right with Denver (64%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 special teams play, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 6:44⚡ Special Teams(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:424️⃣ 4th Down(2:42) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 18-J.Bech to DEN 22 for 17 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
Q2 0:254️⃣ 4th Down(:25) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to LV 39 for 4 yards (45-D.White) [51-M.Koonce]. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to LV 41 for 2 yards (45-D.White) [51-M.Koonce].
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This one stings. We liked Kansas City at 54%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 key play, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 7:00📍 Key Play(7:00) (Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:594️⃣ 4th Down(9:59) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:224️⃣ 4th Down(10:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice (24-D.Stingley) [51-W.Anderson].
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This one stings. We liked Indianapolis at 52%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Indianapolis's D.Jones turnover in Q1, Indianapolis's J.Taylor turnover in Q2, and Jacksonville's B.Tuten turnover in Q2. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 13:04🔄 Turnover(13:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at IND 27. 0-D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (2-J.Downs).
Q2 13:09🔄 Turnover(13:09) 28-J.Taylor left end to IND 29 for 4 yards (52-D.Hamilton, 29-E.Murray). FUMBLES (29-E.Murray), RECOVERED by JAX-22-J.Jones at IND 28. 22-J.Jones to IND 28 for no gain (14-A.Pierce).
Q2 2:40🔄 Turnover(2:40) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten left end to IND 46 for -1 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart), RECOVERED by IND-53-G.Pratt at IND 46. 53-G.Pratt to IND 47 for 1 yard (76-E.Cleveland; 85-B.Strange).
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Got the winner right with LA Rams (60%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Arizona's J.Brissett turnover in Q3, B.Corum's (48-yard) explosive play, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (3)
Q3 0:24🔄 Turnover(:24) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Landman at ARI 31. 53-N.Landman to ARI 31 for no gain (14-M.Wilson).
Q4 13:56💨 Explosive(13:56) 22-B.Corum right tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:284️⃣ 4th Down(5:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 22-M.Carter (51-T.Reeder).
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Got the winner right with Miami (57%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 key play, NY Jets's B.Cook turnover in Q2, and NY Jets's T.Taylor turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 13:42📍 Key Play(13:42) 28-D.Achane left guard to NYJ 3 for 39 yards (51-F.Mauigoa).
Q2 0:37🔄 Turnover(:37) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass deep left intended for 3-J.Metchie INTERCEPTED by 26-R.Douglas at MIA 0. 26-R.Douglas to MIA 5 for 5 yards (32-I.Davis).
Q1 7:35🔄 Turnover(7:35) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short left to 85-M.Taylor. Miami challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left intended for 85-M.Taylor INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Dodson at NYJ 29. 25-T.Dodson to NYJ 29 for no gain.
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This one stings. We liked Tampa Bay at 73%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +18% WPA swing play, Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q3, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 8:34💥 Big Play(8:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 12:54🔄 Turnover(12:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 19-K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at NO 43. 1-A.Taylor to TB 47 for 10 yards (87-P.Durham).
Q2 0:574️⃣ 4th Down(:57) 24-D.Neal left guard to TB 44 for -2 yards (5-H.Reddick). TB-5-H.Reddick was injured during the play.
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Nailed it. We had LA Chargers at 55% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Philadelphia's J.Hurts turnover in Q5, a +33% WPA swing play, and a clutch field goal.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 2:35🔄 Turnover(2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Jefferson (20-C.Hart) at LAC 1. 23-T.Jefferson to LAC 4 for 3 yards.
Q5 4:57💥 Big Play(4:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to LAC 47 for 28 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q5 6:29💥 Big Play(6:29) 11-C.Dicker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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This one stings. We liked Baltimore at 69%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a -27% WPA swing play, a +25% WPA swing play, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:09💥 Big Play(:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 38 for -8 yards (56-A.Highsmith).
Q4 3:36💥 Big Play(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to PIT 13 for 33 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q4 2:284️⃣ 4th Down(2:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews.
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Got the winner right with Seattle (59%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q3 special teams play, Atlanta's B.Robinson turnover in Q3, and Seattle's S.Darnold turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 15:00⚡ Special Teams45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. 22-R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 11:26🔄 Turnover(11:26) 7-B.Robinson up the middle to SEA 18 for no gain (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-21-D.Witherspoon at SEA 12. 21-D.Witherspoon to SEA 12 for no gain (87-D.Sills).
Q2 9:40🔄 Turnover(9:40) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes (24-A.Terrell) at SEA 36. 21-M.Hughes to SEA 30 for 6 yards (26-Z.Charbonnet; 9-K.Walker).
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This one stings. We liked Cleveland at 53%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: S.Sanders's (60-yard) explosive play, Cleveland's S.Sanders turnover in Q3, and Cleveland's S.Sanders turnover in Q4. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 2:58💨 Explosive(2:58) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 1:57🔄 Turnover(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle intended for 84-G.Larvadain INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [93-T.Sweat] at TEN 27. 25-X.Woods to CLE 38 for 35 yards (22-D.Sampson).
Q4 11:07🔄 Turnover(11:07) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 22-D.Sampson to CLE 25 for 5 yards (26-M.Harris). FUMBLES (26-M.Harris), RECOVERED by TEN-33-C.Gray at CLE 27. 33-C.Gray to CLE 8 for 19 yards (19-C.Tillman).
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Got the winner right with Minnesota (51%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Washington's J.Daniels turnover in Q3, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 8:24🔄 Turnover(8:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 30. 43-A.Van Ginkel to WAS 30 for 40 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Q1 2:464️⃣ 4th Down(2:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.
Q3 10:264️⃣ 4th Down(10:26) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to MIN 26 for 11 yards (2-I.Rodgers; 51-B.Cashman).