Week 15 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 16 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Got the winner right with Houston (70%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: C.Stroud's (57-yard) explosive play, Arizona's K.Fairbairn turnover in Q1, and Arizona's J.Brissett turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 14:21💨 Explosive(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:11🔄 Turnover15-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 28 for 27 yards (56-J.Hill). FUMBLES (56-J.Hill), RECOVERED by HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale at ARI 28. 33-D.Ogunbowale to ARI 22 for 6 yards (47-C.Tindall).
Q3 9:01🔄 Turnover(9:01) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Lassiter at HOU -4. Touchback.
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This one stings. We liked Tampa Bay at 56%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a +15% WPA swing play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:04💥 Big Play(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:494️⃣ 4th Down(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q4 3:40💥 Big Play(3:40) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Got the winner right with Baltimore (54%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 key play, Cincinnati's J.Burrow turnover in Q2, and Baltimore's L.Jackson turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 4:42📍 Key Play(4:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:48🔄 Turnover(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [41-D.Jones] at BAL 14. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 35 for 21 yards (30-C.Brown).
Q2 9:46🔄 Turnover(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CIN 27. 27-J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).
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Nailed it. We had Buffalo at 52% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: T.Munford's (65-yard) explosive play, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a +18% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 10:03💨 Explosive(10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:224️⃣ 4th Down(11:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (25-M.Jones). Penalty on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 10:10💥 Big Play(10:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Nailed it. We had New Orleans at 52% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +19% WPA swing play, a +17% WPA swing play, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 2:33💥 Big Play(2:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:12💥 Big Play(:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough up the middle to CAR 44 for 4 yards (22-L.Ransom). NO-6-T.Shough was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-22-L.Ransom, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 44.
Q4 6:594️⃣ 4th Down(6:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at CAR 23 for 0 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). Penalty on NO-77-D.Radunz, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Got the winner right with Chicago (73%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Cleveland's S.Sanders turnover in Q3, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and Cleveland's S.Sanders turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 8:53🔄 Turnover(8:53) 12-S.Sanders pass short left intended for 44-H.Fannin INTERCEPTED by 48-D.Jackson at CLE 22. 48-D.Jackson to CLE 22 for no gain (3-J.Jeudy).
Q3 12:204️⃣ 4th Down(12:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 48 for -6 yards (91-A.Wright).
Q3 5:52🔄 Turnover(5:52) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep right intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson [98-M.Sweat] at CHI 0. Touchback.
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Got the winner right with LA Rams (53%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: LA Rams's M.Stafford turnover in Q1, a key Q2 key play, and a key Q1 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 8:24🔄 Turnover(8:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 84-C.Parkinson INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at DET 25. 97-A.Hutchinson to LA 17 for 58 yards (84-C.Parkinson).
Q2 8:31📍 Key Play(8:31) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown ran ob at LA 13 for 52 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q1 1:53📍 Key Play(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 1-J.Williams to LA 38 for 25 yards (53-N.Landman).
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Nailed it. We had Denver at 51% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +16% WPA swing play, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q3 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 12:26💥 Big Play(12:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to DEN 18 for 27 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q4 9:034️⃣ 4th Down(9:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at GB 15 for 26 yards. Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
Q3 0:06📍 Key Play(:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with Seattle (68%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a clutch field goal, and Indianapolis's P.Rivers turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:22💥 Big Play(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 0:52💥 Big Play(:52) 10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 0:11🔄 Turnover(:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant (21-D.Witherspoon) at SEA 42. 8-C.Bryant to SEA 42 for no gain.
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Nailed it. We had LA Chargers at 50% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Kansas City's G.Minshew turnover in Q4, a +16% WPA swing play, and Kansas City's P.Mahomes turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q4 0:20🔄 Turnover(:20) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 18. 3-D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
Q4 13:46💥 Big Play(13:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 80-T.Thornton to LAC 30 for 21 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [52-K.Mack]. KC-80-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LAC-23-T.Jefferson, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30.
Q4 12:47🔄 Turnover(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 29-K.Hunt INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LAC 1. 0-D.Henley to LAC 1 for no gain (29-K.Hunt).
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Got the winner right with Philadelphia (80%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 fourth down conversion, Las Vegas's K.Pickett turnover in Q3, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (3)
Q1 1:194️⃣ 4th Down(1:19) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Lockett (50-J.Phillips).
Q3 11:24🔄 Turnover(11:24) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 53-Z.Baun at PHI 27. 53-Z.Baun to PHI 27 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).
Q4 2:004️⃣ 4th Down(2:00) 37-T.Bigsby left guard to LV 2 for -1 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).
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Got the winner right with Pittsburgh (52%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Miami's T.Tagovailoa turnover in Q1, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 8:01🔄 Turnover(8:01) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Samuel at PIT 19. 22-A.Samuel to PIT 19 for no gain (17-J.Waddle).
Q1 2:194️⃣ 4th Down(2:19) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell pushed ob at MIA 32 for 9 yards (23-J.Jones).
Q1 5:564️⃣ 4th Down(5:56) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 30 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson).
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This one stings. We liked Dallas at 59%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a clutch field goal, Minnesota's J.McCarthy turnover in Q1, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 12:24💥 Big Play(12:24) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q1 14:09🔄 Turnover(14:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 92-Q.Williams (6-D.Wilson) at MIN 35. 92-Q.Williams to MIN 35 for no gain (84-J.Oliver).
Q3 2:494️⃣ 4th Down(2:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to DAL 14 for 23 yards (34-S.Revel).
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Got the winner right with Jacksonville (70%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 fourth down conversion, NY Jets's B.Cook turnover in Q2, and T.Lawrence's (45-yard) explosive play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 8:494️⃣ 4th Down(8:49) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 38 for -6 yards (44-T.Walker).
Q2 1:13🔄 Turnover(1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right intended for 15-A.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Brown at NYJ 47. 30-M.Brown to NYJ 47 for no gain (15-A.Mitchell).
Q4 13:51💨 Explosive(13:51) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 1-T.Etienne for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Nailed it. We had San Francisco at 67% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a key Q3 fourth down conversion, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and San Francisco's B.Purdy turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q3 6:174️⃣ 4th Down(6:17) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to TEN 31 for 2 yards (93-T.Sweat; 98-J.Simmons).
Q4 6:124️⃣ 4th Down(6:12) 1-C.Ward up the middle to SF 6 for 2 yards (99-C.West).
Q4 14:54🔄 Turnover(14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 35 for -9 yards (98-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-35-K.Elam at TEN 47. 35-K.Elam to SF 44 for 9 yards (23-C.McCaffrey). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Got the winner right with Washington (55%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q1 key play, NY Giants's J.Dart turnover in Q2, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 11:46📍 Key Play(11:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 85-N.Brown to NYG 29 for 28 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q2 0:26🔄 Turnover(:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 21. 0-M.Sainristil to NYG 24 for 55 yards (13-J.Hyatt).
Q3 2:444️⃣ 4th Down(2:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 82-D.Bellinger to WAS 48 for 12 yards (58-J.Magee; 20-Q.Martin).