Week 16 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 16 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Got the winner right with Atlanta (52%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Arizona's J.Brissett turnover in Q4, a key Q3 key play, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:30🔄 Turnover(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Henderson at ATL 37. 39-C.Henderson ran ob at ATL 37 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 5:23📍 Key Play(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ATL 25 for 25 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q3 9:324️⃣ 4th Down(9:32) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ARI 26 for 10 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play.
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Got the winner right with Buffalo (81%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and Cleveland's S.Sanders turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 2:534️⃣ 4th Down(2:53) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox.
Q4 5:084️⃣ 4th Down(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
Q1 3:03🔄 Turnover(3:03) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short middle intended for 10-Q.Judkins INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF 29. 21-J.Poyer to BUF 39 for 10 yards (56-L.Wypler).
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Got the winner right with Cincinnati (51%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: D.Achane's (48-yard) explosive play, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and Miami's Q.Ewers turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 2:35💨 Explosive(2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 11:124️⃣ 4th Down(11:12) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to MIA 24 for 1 yard (25-T.Dodson; 44-C.Robinson).
Q3 9:30🔄 Turnover(9:30) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep middle intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 49-B.Carter (28-J.Newton) at CIN 49. 49-B.Carter to MIA 35 for 16 yards (69-C.Strange).
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This one stings. We liked Green Bay at 55%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: C.Williams's (46-yard) explosive play, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a +26% WPA swing play. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 4:57💨 Explosive(4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:284️⃣ 4th Down(:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q5 9:15💥 Big Play(9:15) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 11-J.Reed to CHI 45 for 31 yards (31-K.Byard) [50-G.Jarrett].
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This one stings. We liked Denver at 59%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +17% WPA swing play, a key Q2 key play, and a key Q3 key play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 13:11💥 Big Play(13:11) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey right tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:51📍 Key Play(12:51) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:55📍 Key Play(9:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington ran ob at DEN 24 for 20 yards (6-P.Locke).
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This one stings. We liked Kansas City at 68%, but variance had other plans. The game turned on a key Q1 fourth down conversion and a key Q3 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (2)
Q1 10:184️⃣ 4th Down(10:18) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 84-G.Helm.
Q3 6:294️⃣ 4th Down(6:29) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward up the middle to 50 for no gain (23-D.Tranquill; 97-A.Gillotte).
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Got the winner right with LA Chargers (56%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q3 key play, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 14:13📍 Key Play(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Q1 11:594️⃣ 4th Down(11:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens to LAC 11 for 28 yards (20-C.Hart). DAL-56-C.Beebe was injured during the play.
Q3 2:184️⃣ 4th Down(2:18) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to LAC 16 for no gain (91-D.Hand; 99-J.Caldwell).
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Nailed it. We had Seattle at 55% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a +53% WPA swing play, a -44% WPA swing play, and a -31% WPA swing play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q5 3:13💥 Big PlayTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 81-E.Saubert is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q5 3:17💥 Big Play(3:17) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q5 6:27💥 Big Play92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Got the winner right with Houston (80%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: G.Smith's (60-yard) explosive play, Las Vegas's G.Smith turnover in Q1, and A.Jeanty's (51-yard) explosive play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (3)
Q3 9:53💨 Explosive(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:53🔄 Turnover(10:53) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at LV 31. 24-D.Stingley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:34💨 Explosive(5:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with Minnesota (66%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Minnesota's J.McCarthy turnover in Q2, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and Minnesota's J.McCarthy turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 0:25🔄 Turnover(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured during the play.
Q4 2:054️⃣ 4th Down(2:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q1 1:46🔄 Turnover(1:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 1-J.Nailor INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Adebo at MIN 44. 21-P.Adebo ran ob at MIN 44 for no gain.
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This one stings. We liked Baltimore at 59%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a +19% WPA swing play, and Baltimore's T.Huntley turnover in Q4. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 3:024️⃣ 4th Down(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q4 2:15💥 Big Play(2:15) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:57🔄 Turnover(1:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 5 yards (44-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (44-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by NE-25-M.Jones at BAL 36.
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Got the winner right with New Orleans (67%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: NY Jets's B.Cook turnover in Q4, New Orleans's T.Hill turnover in Q1, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 12:52🔄 Turnover(12:52) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook sacked at NYJ 46 for -7 yards (93-N.Shepherd). FUMBLES (93-N.Shepherd) [93-N.Shepherd], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at NYJ 46.
Q1 14:48🔄 Turnover(14:48) 7-T.Hill right guard to NO 36 for 8 yards (27-M.Moore; 78-J.Tufele). FUMBLES (27-M.Moore), RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at NO 37.
Q2 5:344️⃣ 4th Down(5:34) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill left guard to NO 35 for 2 yards (45-K.King).
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Got the winner right with Philadelphia (65%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a +19% WPA swing play, a key Q2 key play, and Philadelphia's J.Moody turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 3:33💥 Big Play(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:09📍 Key Play(:09) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q1 15:00🔄 Turnover16-J.Moody kicks 59 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 6. 28-W.Shipley to PHI 30 for 24 yards (0-M.Sainristil). FUMBLES (0-M.Sainristil), RECOVERED by WAS-56-K.Medrano at PHI 26.
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This one stings. We liked Detroit at 58%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a +21% WPA swing play, a clutch field goal, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 1:14💥 Big Play(1:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 12 for 24 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q4 2:09💥 Big Play(2:09) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Q4 8:454️⃣ 4th Down(8:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with San Francisco (53%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Indianapolis's E.Pineiro turnover in Q1, a key Q2 key play, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 7:14🔄 Turnover18-E.Pineiro kicks 56 yards from SF 35 to IND 9. 26-A.Abdullah to IND 27 for 18 yards (27-J.Brown). FUMBLES (27-J.Brown), RECOVERED by SF-88-J.Tonges at IND 26.
Q2 14:19📍 Key Play(14:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 12:394️⃣ 4th Down(12:39) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to IND 46 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner).
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This one stings. We liked Tampa Bay at 52%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q4, a -17% WPA swing play, and a key Q4 key play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:49🔄 Turnover(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
Q4 12:20💥 Big Play(12:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 32 for -9 yards (95-D.Brown).
Q4 6:38📍 Key Play(6:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka to CAR 49 for 40 yards (21-N.Scott).