Week 7 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 15 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Nailed it. We had San Francisco at 56% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: San Francisco's M.Jones turnover in Q2, a key Q4 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 key play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 9:54🔄 Turnover(9:54) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 55-K.Elliss at ATL 18. 55-K.Elliss to ATL 34 for 16 yards (10-M.Jones).
Q4 8:204️⃣ 4th Down(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
Q4 10:51📍 Key Play(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts ran ob at SF 44 for 19 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
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Got the winner right with Carolina (53%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and NY Jets's T.Taylor turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 2:124️⃣ 4th Down(2:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
Q2 14:564️⃣ 4th Down(14:56) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (9-W.McDonald; 53-M.Walker).
Q4 4:34🔄 Turnover(4:34) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 40. 8-Ja.Horn to CAR 40 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).
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Nailed it. We had Green Bay at 53% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a -19% WPA swing play, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 2:324️⃣ 4th Down(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
Q4 0:32💥 Big Play(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at GB 35 for -9 yards (1-M.Parsons).
Q4 5:584️⃣ 4th Down(5:58) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie).
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Nailed it. We had Seattle at 55% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: Seattle's S.Darnold turnover in Q3, Houston's C.Stroud turnover in Q3, and Seattle's C.Kupp turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 7:33🔄 Turnover(7:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA -5 for -12 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at SEA -5. TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:14🔄 Turnover(14:14) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [29-J.Jobe] at HOU 46. 13-E.Jones pushed ob at HOU 18 for 28 yards (21-N.Chubb). PENALTY on SEA-7-U.Nwosu, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 23.
Q2 7:10🔄 Turnover(7:10) 10-C.Kupp pass short right intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 12. 2-C.Bullock pushed ob at HOU 23 for 11 yards (11-J.Smith-Njigba).
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This one stings. We liked LA Chargers at 53%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, LA Chargers's J.Herbert turnover in Q2, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 15:004️⃣ 4th Down(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:48🔄 Turnover(6:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 90-G.Stewart at IND 34. 90-G.Stewart to IND 37 for 3 yards (10-J.Herbert; 74-A.Deculus).
Q1 1:204️⃣ 4th Down(1:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to LAC 12 for 7 yards (3-D.James).
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This one stings. We liked Jacksonville at 52%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q1 fourth down conversion, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 8:014️⃣ 4th Down(8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).
Q2 13:154️⃣ 4th Down(13:15) (No Huddle) 11-P.Washington right end to LA 43 for 3 yards (1-E.Forbes).
Q3 10:414️⃣ 4th Down(10:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.Brown.
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Got the winner right with Kansas City (65%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 fourth down conversion, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q2 15:004️⃣ 4th Down(15:00) 29-K.Hunt left guard to KC 43 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby).
Q3 0:124️⃣ 4th Down(:12) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Thornton.
Q4 4:524️⃣ 4th Down(4:52) (Shotgun) 24-B.Smith up the middle to LV 4 for 1 yard (45-D.White).
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This one stings. We liked Miami at 56%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: L.Wypler's (46-yard) explosive play, Miami's T.Tagovailoa turnover in Q3, and Miami's A.Szmyt turnover in Q2. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 11:28💨 Explosive(11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.
Q3 14:56🔄 Turnover(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 28-D.Achane INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Campbell at MIA 34. 7-T.Campbell for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:19🔄 Turnover25-A.Szmyt kicks 57 yards from CLE 35 to MIA 8. 82-D.Eskridge to MIA 31 for 23 yards (9-G.Delpit). FUMBLES (9-G.Delpit), touched at MIA 33, RECOVERED by CLE-5-R.Jenkins at MIA 46.
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Got the winner right with New England (61%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a key Q2 key play, Tennessee's C.Ward turnover in Q3, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 0:55📍 Key Play(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:25🔄 Turnover(7:25) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 10 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-44-K.Chaisson at TEN 4. 44-K.Chaisson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-17-C.Dike, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q2 0:034️⃣ 4th Down(:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right.
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Nailed it. We had Chicago at 62% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: New Orleans's S.Rattler turnover in Q1, a key Q1 key play, and Chicago's C.Williams turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 13:01🔄 Turnover(13:01) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 23 for -2 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at NO 24.
Q1 3:00📍 Key Play(3:00) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Q1 6:13🔄 Turnover(6:13) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 29-Q.Riley at CHI 48. 29-Q.Riley ran ob at CHI 48 for no gain.
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Got the winner right with Denver (60%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a clutch field goal, a +25% WPA swing play, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:02💥 Big Play(:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q4 2:14💥 Big Play(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NYG 38 for 31 yards (22-A.Phillips).
Q4 1:084️⃣ 4th Down(1:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep left to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 45 for 19 yards (29-J.McMillian). PENALTY on DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 45.
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This one stings. We liked Minnesota at 57%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Minnesota's C.Wentz turnover in Q2, F.Johnson's (79-yard) explosive play, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion. Only 20% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 13:35🔄 Turnover(13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 8:17💨 Explosive(8:17) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 7:074️⃣ 4th Down(7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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This one stings. We liked Pittsburgh at 57%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: A.Rodgers's (68-yard) explosive play, a clutch field goal, and a -20% WPA swing play. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 2:31💨 Explosive(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:11💥 Big Play(:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Q4 0:03💥 Big Play(:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left (38-D.Ivey).
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Nailed it. We had Detroit at 60% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: J.Gibbs's (78-yard) explosive play, Detroit's J.Goff turnover in Q1, and Tampa Bay's B.Mayfield turnover in Q2.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 6:01💨 Explosive(6:01) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 7:49🔄 Turnover(7:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at TB 44 for -9 yards (0-Y.Diaby). FUMBLES (0-Y.Diaby) [0-Y.Diaby], RECOVERED by TB-95-E.Roberts at TB 40.
Q2 1:52🔄 Turnover(1:52) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 48 for 3 yards (27-A.Maulet). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 27-A.Maulet at TB 48. 27-A.Maulet to T
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This one stings. We liked Washington at 57%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: D.Prescott's (74-yard) explosive play, Washington's J.Daniels turnover in Q3, and Washington's M.Mariota turnover in Q3. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 4:38💨 Explosive(4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 11:53🔄 Turnover(11:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at DAL 45 for -6 yards (50-S.James). FUMBLES (50-S.James) [50-S.James], touched at DAL 43, RECOVERED by DAL-42-J.Clowney at DAL 45. WAS-5-J.Daniels was injured during the play.
Q3 5:46🔄 Turnover(5:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 26-J.McNichols INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland [13-D.Fowler] at DAL 32. 26-D.Bland for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.