Week 8 Swing Play Analysis
2025 Season • 13 games analysed
📊 Swing Play Breakdown
Game-by-Game Analysis
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Got the winner right with Buffalo (58%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Carolina's A.Dalton turnover in Q1, Carolina's A.Dalton turnover in Q2, and J.Cook's (64-yard) explosive play.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 3:51🔄 Turnover(3:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles right end to BUF 20 for 1 yard (50-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at BUF 11. 47-C.Benford to BUF 17 for 6 yards (70-B.Christensen; 14-A.Dalton).
Q2 1:58🔄 Turnover(1:58) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 18-J.Coker INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa at CAR 25. 57-A.Epenesa to CAR 1 for 24 yards (30-C.Hubbard).
Q2 7:35💨 Explosive(7:35) 4-J.Cook left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Got the winner right with Baltimore (53%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Chicago's C.Williams turnover in Q4, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (3)
Q4 9:08🔄 Turnover(9:08) 18-C.Williams pass short right intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CHI 18. 2-N.Wiggins ran ob at CHI 9 for 9 yards (84-C.Loveland).
Q2 3:284️⃣ 4th Down(3:28) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to CHI 33 for 3 yards (33-J.Jones).
Q4 0:294️⃣ 4th Down(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore.
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Got the winner right with New England (70%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: New England's D.Maye turnover in Q2, Cleveland's D.Gabriel turnover in Q3, and Cleveland's D.Gabriel turnover in Q3.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 13:12🔄 Turnover(13:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 8-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at NE 41. 49-C.Schwesinger to NE 34 for 7 yards (8-S.Diggs).
Q3 7:41🔄 Turnover(7:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short middle intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 14-R.Spillane at CLE 39. 14-R.Spillane to CLE 6 for 33 yards (22-D.Sampson; 8-D.Gabriel).
Q3 3:52🔄 Turnover(3:52) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass deep left intended for 16-I.Bond INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE 19. 21-J.Hawkins to NE 19 for no gain (16-I.Bond).
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Got the winner right with Denver (62%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Denver's B.Nix turnover in Q1, R.Harvey's (40-yard) explosive play, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 13:44🔄 Turnover(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Bridges at DAL 41. 25-T.Bridges to DAL 48 for 7 yards (13-P.Bryant). Penalty on DEN-63-A.Palczewski, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q1 8:21💨 Explosive(8:21) 12-R.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:274️⃣ 4th Down(10:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens ran ob at DEN 10 for 17 yards [99-Z.Allen]. DEN-99-Z.Allen was injured during the play.
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Got the winner right with Green Bay (55%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: a +16% WPA swing play, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and Pittsburgh's A.Rodgers turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q3 0:35💥 Big Play(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to PIT 7 for 33 yards (26-B.Echols). Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q3 10:184️⃣ 4th Down(10:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at PIT 10 for 7 yards (24-J.Porter).
Q4 5:17🔄 Turnover(5:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 14-K.Gainwell to PIT 28 for 5 yards (56-E.Cooper). FUMBLES (56-E.Cooper), RECOVERED by GB-20-J.Bullard at PIT 26.
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This one stings. We liked Atlanta at 57%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: Atlanta's B.Robinson turnover in Q3, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q1 fourth down conversion. Only 0% of swing plays were predictable. This was bad luck, not bad process.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 10:31🔄 Turnover(10:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end to MIA 16 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIA-25-T.Dodson at MIA 10. 25-T.Dodson to MIA 16 for 6 yards (70-J.Matthews; 65-M.Bergeron). Penalty on ATL-64-R.Neuzil, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 0:274️⃣ 4th Down(:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-T.Allgeier to MIA 34 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q1 4:074️⃣ 4th Down(4:07) 31-O.Gordon right guard to ATL 7 for 1 yard (21-M.Hughes; 31-X.Watts). Atlanta challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Got the winner right with LA Chargers (52%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: LA Chargers's J.Herbert turnover in Q3, Minnesota's C.Wentz turnover in Q4, and a key Q4 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (3)
Q3 7:03🔄 Turnover(7:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 44-J.Metellus (61-J.Redmond) at LAC 26. 44-J.Metellus to LAC 26 for no gain (15-L.McConkey).
Q4 12:02🔄 Turnover(12:02) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mickens at LAC 33. 27-R.Mickens to LAC 48 for 15 yards (27-J.Mason; 64-B.Brandel).
Q4 6:234️⃣ 4th Down(6:23) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson [20-C.Hart].
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Got the winner right with Philadelphia (64%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: F.Johnson's (65-yard) explosive play, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 14:53💨 Explosive(14:53) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:364️⃣ 4th Down(:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to NYG 41 for 5 yards (24-D.Belton).
Q2 12:574️⃣ 4th Down(12:57) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYG 9 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). New York Giants challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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This one stings. We liked Cincinnati at 57%, but variance had other plans. Key moments: a key Q4 fourth down conversion, a key Q1 fourth down conversion, and a key Q2 fourth down conversion. Mixed predictability (40%). Some variance, some signals we could improve on.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q4 0:324️⃣ 4th Down(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).
Q1 8:204️⃣ 4th Down(8:20) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 35 for -2 yards (49-B.Carter).
Q2 5:234️⃣ 4th Down(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 16-T.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Nailed it. We had Houston at 64% confidence, and they delivered — almost exactly as predicted. Key moments: a key Q1 fourth down conversion, Houston's C.Stroud turnover in Q2, and San Francisco's M.Jones turnover in Q4.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (4)
Q1 8:154️⃣ 4th Down(8:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud right guard to SF 23 for 1 yard (48-T.Bethune).
Q2 0:11🔄 Turnover(:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right intended for 14-J.Noel INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Lenoir at SF 44. 2-D.Lenoir to HOU 30 for 26 yards (75-L.Tomlinson). FUMBLES (75-L.Tomlinson), recovered by SF-98-M.Williams at HOU 30.
Q4 2:01🔄 Turnover(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Lassiter at HOU 1. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K
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Got the winner right with Tampa Bay (60%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: New Orleans's S.Rattler turnover in Q2, a key Q2 fourth down conversion, and New Orleans's S.Rattler turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q2 6:48🔄 Turnover(6:48) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 98-A.Nelson at NO 3. 98-A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-71-K.Banks, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q2 7:284️⃣ 4th Down(7:28) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NO 1 for no gain (58-C.Rumph; 93-N.Shepherd).
Q1 12:25🔄 Turnover(12:25) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler scrambles left guard to TB 34 for 7 yards (98-A.Nelson; 8-S.Dennis). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson), touched at TB 33, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 32.
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Got the winner right with Indianapolis (74%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: J.Taylor's (80-yard) explosive play, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and a key Q3 fourth down conversion.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q3 11:22💨 Explosive(11:22) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 1:414️⃣ 4th Down(1:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 46 for -10 yards (99-D.Buckner).
Q3 0:124️⃣ 4th Down(:12) 28-J.Taylor left end pushed ob at TEN 33 for 4 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
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Got the winner right with Kansas City (64%), though the margin surprised us. Key moments: Washington's M.Mariota turnover in Q1, a key Q3 fourth down conversion, and Kansas City's P.Mahomes turnover in Q1.
📊 Win Probability Flow
Swing Plays (5)
Q1 9:49🔄 Turnover(9:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 51-M.Danna at KC 22. 51-M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (1-D.Samuel).
Q3 10:194️⃣ 4th Down(10:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:40🔄 Turnover(5:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left intended for 5-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Lattimore at WAS 7. 2-M.Lattimore pushed ob at WAS 7 for no gain (5-M.Brown).