2026 Season Results

2026 2025

Record

9-7

56.3% accuracy

Brier Score

0.269

Needs improvement

vs Market

-18.8%

16 games with odds

Trend

insufficient_data

NaN% H2 vs H1

Flat Bet ROI

-60.0%

4 bets

High Edge Acc

50%

10 picks >10%

Upset Detection

20%

1/5 contrarian

Total Profit

$240

$100 flat bets

Model live from Week 1

Include pre-live weeks

Season: 9-7 (56.3%)

Weekly Accuracy

Cumulative Performance

Model vs Market

-18.8%F&D Edge

Head-to-Head

-3net games

By Edge Bucket

Positive: 2gNegative: 14g

📈 Betting Value Metrics

Flat Bet ROI

-60.0%

4 total bets

Flat Bet Record

1-3

25.0% win rate

Brier Edge

-0.057

Model: 0.269

High Edge Picks

50%

10 picks >10%

Weekly Flat Bet ROI

💰 Staking Strategy Returns

Backtested from Week 1 with $10,000 starting bankroll

LOCK Picks

No qualifying bets

Equity Curve — Bankroll Over Time

Weekly Profit / Loss

🏈 Game-by-Game Results

Record: 9-7Accuracy: 56.3%

📊 Week 1 Context

Chaos: 🟢 LOW

Fewer upsets than normal

Upsets

4/16

25% upset rate

Historical Avg

38%

-13% vs normal

F&D Model

9/16

56% accuracy

Vegas

12/16

75% accuracy

Both Wrong

true upsets

Both Right

F&D Only

Vegas Only

Both Wrong

💡 Calm week - favorites dominated (4 upsets, below 38% avg). Both model & Vegas wrong on 3 games (true upsets). Vegas beat model by 3 games

❌

MIA @ LV

Final: 13-27

Pick: MIA (75%)

Medium • -35.7% edge

✅

CLE @ JAX

Final: 10-34

Pick: JAX (75%)

Medium • -3.3% edge

❌

DAL @ NYG

Final: 20-28

Pick: DAL (74%)

Medium • -14.4% edge

✅

CHI @ CAR

Final: 59-37

Pick: CHI (69%)

Medium • -8.6% edge

❌

SF @ LAR

Final: 27-7

Pick: LAR (67%)

Medium • +3.5% edge

✅

BUF @ HOU

Final: 36-31

Pick: BUF (65%)

Low • -14.1% edge

❌

GB @ MIN

Final: 22-39

Pick: GB (64%)

Low • -18.6% edge

✅

NO @ DET

Final: 30-31

Pick: DET (63%)

Low • -10.8% edge

✅

ATL @ PIT

Final: 13-20

Pick: PIT (62%)

Low • -9.2% edge

❌

ARI @ LAC

Final: 26-14

Pick: LAC (59%)

Low • -21.5% edge

✅

NYJ @ TEN

Final: 23-10

Pick: NYJ (58%)

Low • -10.6% edge

✅

WAS @ PHI

Final: 22-24

Pick: PHI (55%)

Low • -13.4% edge

❌

DEN @ KC

Final: 10-31

Pick: DEN (54%)

Low • -9.0% edge

✅

NE @ SEA

Final: 10-13

Pick: SEA (54%)

Low • -6.6% edge

❌

BAL @ IND

Final: 41-23

Pick: IND (53%)

Low • +13.9% edge

✅

TB @ CIN

Final: 27-33

Pick: CIN (51%)

Low • -13.0% edge

Weekly Breakdown

Week	Record	Acc%	Mkt%	Edge
1	9-7	56.3%	75.0%	-18.8%

By Confidence Tier

Tier	Record	Actual	Expected	Games
Medium	2-3	40.0%	72.0%	5
Low	7-4	63.6%	57.8%	11

Best Week

Week 1: 56.3%(9-7)

Worst Week

Week 1: 56.3%(9-7)

Generated: 9/16/2026, 3:12:10 PM