Playoff odds · 2026 · through week 5
Who makes January
20,000 simulated seasons. Games already played are fixed at their real results; the rest are simulated with the model. Re-run every Tuesday after the results.
Super Bowl favourite
25%49ers
25%49ersSteelers make the playoffs45%9.1 projected wins
Steelers win the North14%3-2 so far
Last run13 Octafter week 5
AFC
| Team | Record | Proj. wins | Win range | Playoffs | Division | Conference | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiefs West | 4-0 | 12.4 | 97% | 89% | 22% | 12% | |
 Jaguars South | 4-1 | 11.9 | 95% | 89% | 22% | 12% | |
 Bills East | 4-1 | 11.9 | 95% | 63% | 22% | 12% | |
 Patriots East | 3-2 | 11.1 | 87% | 37% | 15% | 8.6% | |
 Ravens North | 4-1 | 10.9 | 83% | 55% | 10% | 4.9% | |
 Bengals North | 3-2 | 9.9 | 64% | 28% | 3% | 1.2% | |
 Steelers North | 3-2 | 9.1 | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0.5% | |
 Broncos West | 3-2 | 9.0 | 44% | 8% | 2% | 0.7% | |
 Texans South | 1-4 | 8.3 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0.8% | |
 Raiders West | 3-2 | 7.9 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0.1% | |
 Colts South | 2-3 | 7.9 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0.2% | |
 Browns North | 3-2 | 7.6 | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0.0% | |
 Jets East | 2-3 | 6.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | |
 Chargers West | 0-5 | 4.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | |
 Titans South | 0-5 | 3.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | |
 Dolphins East | 0-5 | 4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
NFC
| Team | Record | Proj. wins | Win range | Playoffs | Division | Conference | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers West | 5-0 | 13.3 | 99% | 90% | 45% | 25% | |
 Lions North | 3-2 | 10.8 | 83% | 44% | 15% | 7.1% | |
 Vikings North | 5-0 | 10.5 | 79% | 35% | 5% | 1.7% | |
 Seahawks West | 3-2 | 9.6 | 61% | 6% | 7% | 2.9% | |
 Panthers South | 2-2 | 8.6 | 58% | 54% | 4% | 1.3% | |
 Giants East | 4-1 | 8.9 | 56% | 48% | 3% | 0.8% | |
 Rams West | 2-3 | 9.2 | 53% | 4% | 7% | 3.4% | |
 Cowboys East | 2-3 | 8.5 | 46% | 38% | 3% | 1.2% | |
 Bears North | 3-2 | 9.0 | 46% | 11% | 4% | 1.5% | |
 Packers North | 3-2 | 8.9 | 44% | 10% | 3% | 1.1% | |
 Falcons South | 2-3 | 7.6 | 33% | 28% | 2% | 0.5% | |
 Eagles East | 2-3 | 6.9 | 14% | 11% | 0% | 0.1% | |
 Buccaneers South | 1-4 | 6.4 | 14% | 12% | 1% | 0.1% | |
 Saints South | 1-4 | 5.7 | 7% | 6% | 0% | 0.0% | |
 Commanders East | 1-4 | 5.9 | 5% | 4% | 0% | 0.0% | |
 Cardinals West | 1-4 | 5.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
Seven teams per conference make the playoffs; the line marks the cut. The win range shows how often each final win total came up, with the most likely one in gold. Early in the season these numbers move a lot, and they inherit the model's blind spots: it can't see teams resting starters in week 18.