Playoff Predictions

Monte Carlo bracket simulation • 10,000 simulations

Week:22
Updated:Feb 8, 1:58 PM

First-Round Bye Advantage

67% of teams with a bye win their divisional game. Rest & home field are critical.
DEN0.0% SB
SEA50.7% SB

Championship Probabilities

Wild Card
2
NENE100%
7
LACLAC0%
3
JAXJAX0%
6
BUFBUF100%
4
PITPIT0%
5
HOUHOU100%
Divisional
1
DENDEN100%
6
BUFBUF0%
2
NENE100%
5
HOUHOU0%
AFC Championship
1
DENDEN0%
2
NENE100%
Super Bowl
NE
50.2%
vs
SEA
49.8%
Wild Card
2
CHICHI100%
7
GBGB0%
3
PHIPHI0%
6
SFSF100%
4
CARCAR0%
5
LARLAR100%
Divisional
1
SEASEA100%
6
SFSF0%
2
CHICHI0%
5
LARLAR100%
NFC Championship
1
SEASEA100%
5
LARLAR0%

Projected Champions

AFC Champion
NE
NE100.0%
Super Bowl Winner
NE
NE50.2%
NFC Champion
SEA
SEA100.0%

Super Bowl Odds

AFC
2NE
49.3%
1DEN
0.0%
3JAX
0.0%
4PIT
0.0%
5HOU
0.0%
6BUF
0.0%
7LAC
0.0%
NFC
1SEA
50.7%
2CHI
0.0%
3PHI
0.0%
4CAR
0.0%
5LAR
0.0%
6SF
0.0%
7GB
0.0%
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Fourth and Data provides sports analytics and predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not accept bets, wagers, or conduct any gambling activities. All predictions are probabilistic estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Users are solely responsible for their own betting decisions and compliance with local gambling laws. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

© 2026 Fourth and Data·For entertainment purposes only
Model: ~72% ATS · Brier: 0.20 · MAE: 10pts