SEA
DEN
HOU
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BAL
CLE
CAR
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NO
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SFBuffalo 37, the Rams 34: what nobody priced
We had the Rams at 55%. The market had the Rams by 3.5. Buffalo won 37-34 at SoFi Stadium.
We had the Rams at 55%. The market had the Rams by 3.5. Buffalo won 37-34 at SoFi Stadium. Our lean didn't hold, though at 55% that was close to a coin flip.
How it swung
1. In overtime (8:48), Josh Allen found Khalil Shakir for 57 yards, a 23-point swing in win probability towards Buffalo.
2. In overtime (6:30), Matthew Stafford found Puka Nacua for 21 yards, a 21-point swing in win probability towards the Rams.
5. With 2:00 left, Tyler Bass kicked a 45-yard field goal, a 22-point swing in win probability towards Buffalo.
Who won the matchups
Khalil Shakir against the Rams: Shakir won it. 80 yards on 3 targets, against his usual 43.
Puka Nacua against Buffalo: Nacua won it. 138 yards on 24 targets, above his usual 105.
We had it close to a coin flip (55%), and it went the other way. Some games are just misses, and we grade those too.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 5; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-12T09-15-28Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.