Steelers every week. Thursday night and the week's biggest games. The ledger every Tuesday.
34 quarterbacks ranked on expected points per dropback, adjusted for pressure, and accuracy against expectation. Who climbed, who fell.
We had Jacksonville at 71%. The market had Jacksonville by 8.5. Jacksonville won 33-10 at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore started Joe Fagnano rather than Tyler Huntley (Tyler Huntley was ruled Out).
JAX at BAL, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model JAX 74%, market JAX 80%.
Week 8, vs Cleveland. Explosive-play rate ranked 4th of 28 this week; red-zone TD rate ranked 17th. Here's what the data says happened.
We beat the market this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.
We had Chicago at 52%. The market had Seattle by 3. Chicago won 34-17 at Lumen Field.
The five plays that moved win probability the most across 14 games, the longest gains, and who added the most expected points.
We had Washington at 58%. The market had Washington by 6. Washington won 27-10 at Northwest Stadium. Philadelphia started Tanner McKee rather than Jalen Hurts.
We had Detroit at 73%. The market had Detroit by 3. Detroit won 19-15 at Ford Field.
We had Pittsburgh at 66%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3.5. Pittsburgh won 27-6 at Acrisure Stadium. Deshaun Watson was hurt during the game and came back; Shedeur Sanders (2 dropbacks) filled in.
CLE at PIT, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 66%, market PIT 63%.
MIN at DET, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model DET 73%, market DET 60%.
CHI at SEA, Monday 8:15pm ET. Model CHI 52%, market SEA 60%.
We had Green Bay at 60%. The market had Green Bay by 3.5. Green Bay won 27-19 at Lambeau Field.
CAR at GB, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model GB 60%, market GB 62%.
Commentators keep saying Metcalf can't create space, so the big plays have dried up. The tracking data says the space was never there. The deep ball is what's changed.
Week 7, at New Orleans. Third-down conversion ranked 3rd of 28 this week; red-zone TD rate ranked 25th. Here's what the data says happened.
The market beat us this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.
We had Dallas at 59%. The market had Dallas by 4.5. Dallas won 38-21 at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia started Tanner McKee rather than Jalen Hurts.
We had San Francisco at 72%. The market had San Francisco by 2.5. Atlanta won 29-20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
We had Pittsburgh at 63%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 16-10 at Stade de France.
We had Kansas City at 60%. The market had Seattle by 3. Seattle won 20-3 at Lumen Field.
SF at ATL, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model SF 72%, market SF 58%.
PIT v NO in Paris, Sunday 1:30pm UK (9:30am ET). Model PIT 64%, market PIT 61%.
KC at SEA, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Model KC 62%, market SEA 57%.
We had New England at 57%. The market had Chicago by 3. Chicago won 30-24 at Soldier Field.
NE at CHI, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model NE 58%, market CHI 58%.
We had San Francisco at 84%. The market had San Francisco by 7.5. San Francisco won 23-17 at Levi's Stadium.
Week 6, at Tampa Bay. EPA per play allowed ranked 2nd of 28 this week; EPA per play ranked 25th. Here's what the data says happened.
We had Tampa Bay at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Pittsburgh won 26-19 at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay started Jalon Daniels rather than Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield was ruled Out).
We had Dallas at 54%. The market had Dallas by 1.5. Green Bay won 23-13 at Lambeau Field.
We had the Rams at 71%. The market had the Rams by 12.5. Arizona won 18-16 at SoFi Stadium.
PIT at TB, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 51%, market PIT 56%.
WAS at SF, Monday 8:15pm ET. Model SF 85%, market SF 78%.
We had Seattle at 53%. The market had Seattle by 2.5. Denver won 17-14 at Empower Field at Mile High.
ARI at LA, Sunday 4:05pm ET. Model LA 69%, market LA 86%.
We had the Giants at 63%. The market had Washington by 3.5. It finished level, 27-27. Washington started Jayden Daniels rather than Marcus Mariota (Marcus Mariota was ruled Out).
SEA at DEN, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model SEA 53%, market SEA 56%.
Week 5, vs Indianapolis. Red-zone TD rate ranked 1st of 30 this week; success rate ranked 17th. Here's what the data says happened.
We had the Rams at 55%. The market had the Rams by 3.5. Buffalo won 37-34 at SoFi Stadium.
We had Baltimore at 53%. The market had Atlanta by 3.5. Baltimore won 30-23 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Baltimore started Tyler Huntley rather than Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson was ruled Out).
We had Pittsburgh at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 34-22 at Acrisure Stadium.
We had Jacksonville at 78%. The market had Jacksonville by 7.5. Jacksonville won 19-17 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
PHI v JAX in London, Sunday 2:30pm UK (9:30am ET). Model JAX 78%, market JAX 78%.
BAL at ATL, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Model BAL 60%, market ATL 61%.
We had Dallas at 72%. The market had Dallas by 9.5. Tampa Bay won 24-16 at AT&T Stadium. Tampa Bay started Jalon Daniels rather than Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield was ruled Out).
NYG at WAS, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model NYG 61%, market WAS 62%.
IND at PIT, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 51%, market PIT 56%.
Week 4, at Cleveland. Explosive-play rate ranked 1st of 2 this week; EPA per play ranked 2nd. Here's what the data says happened.
TB at DAL, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model DAL 72%, market DAL 79%.
We had New Orleans at 52%. The market had New Orleans by 1.5. Atlanta won 45-24 at Caesars Superdome. Michael Penix Jr. was back as Atlanta's quarterback; Cooper Rush had played most of their earlier games.
We had Detroit at 69%. The market had Detroit by 4.5. Carolina won 32-26 at Bank of America Stadium.
We had San Francisco at 80%. The market had San Francisco by 3. San Francisco won 24-14 at Levi's Stadium.
We had Cleveland at 53%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Cleveland won 27-24 at Huntington Bank Field.
DET at CAR, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Model DET 70%, market DET 62%.
DEN at SF, Sunday 4:25pm ET. Model SF 79%, market SF 57%.
Case Keenum started for the injured Caleb Williams and didn't turn it over once. Philadelphia turned it over three times, including Andy Dalton's only throw of the night at the goal line.
Week 3, vs Cincinnati. Explosive-play rate ranked 3rd of 32 this week; EPA per play allowed ranked 30th. Here's what the data says happened.
We had Green Bay at 69%. Atlanta won by 21. The empty tank angle we flagged landed, but the bigger miss was ours: Michael Penix was back and the model priced a backup-quarterback offence.
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ATL
CLE
NO
DAL
IND
DEN
CAR
DET
MIA
LA
WAS
NYG
PHI
NYJ
KC
HOU
LAC
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ARI
SEA
GB
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TB
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