The games that matter, broken down

Steelers every week. Thursday night and the week's biggest games. The ledger every Tuesday.

Rewind · week 5

Washington 27, the Giants 27: the backup who won it

We had the Giants at 63%. The market had Washington by 3.5. It finished level, 27-27. Washington started Jayden Daniels rather than Marcus Mariota (Marcus Mariota was ruled Out).

3 min

Featured game · week 6

Seattle at Denver: what decides it

SEA at DEN, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model SEA 53%, market SEA 56%.

4 min

Steelers · deep dive · week 5

Pittsburgh win 34‑22: the red zone was clinical, but the offence stalled

Week 5, vs Indianapolis. Red-zone TD rate ranked 1st of 30 this week; success rate ranked 17th. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min

The ledger · week 5

Week 5 graded: 11‑4, market 9‑6

We beat the market this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.

3 min

Rewind · week 5

Buffalo 37, the Rams 34: what nobody priced

We had the Rams at 55%. The market had the Rams by 3.5. Buffalo won 37-34 at SoFi Stadium.

3 min

Rewind · week 5

Baltimore 30, Atlanta 23: the backup who won it

We had Baltimore at 53%. The market had Atlanta by 3.5. Baltimore won 30-23 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Baltimore started Tyler Huntley rather than Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson was ruled Out).

3 min

Rewind · week 5

Pittsburgh 34, Indianapolis 22: how it played out

We had Pittsburgh at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 34-22 at Acrisure Stadium.

3 min

Rewind · week 5

Jacksonville 19, Philadelphia 17: how it played out

We had Jacksonville at 78%. The market had Jacksonville by 7.5. Jacksonville won 19-17 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

3 min

Featured game · week 5

Philadelphia v Jacksonville in London: what decides it

PHI v JAX in London, Sunday 2:30pm UK (9:30am ET). Model JAX 78%, market JAX 78%.

5 min

Featured game · week 5

Baltimore at Atlanta: model and market split

BAL at ATL, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Model BAL 60%, market ATL 61%.

3 min

Rewind · week 5

Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 16: the backup who won it

We had Dallas at 72%. The market had Dallas by 9.5. Tampa Bay won 24-16 at AT&T Stadium. Tampa Bay started Jalon Daniels rather than Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield was ruled Out).

3 min

Featured game · week 5

The Giants at Washington: model and market split

NYG at WAS, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model NYG 61%, market WAS 62%.

4 min

Steelers · preview · week 5

Pittsburgh at home to Indianapolis: the model leans PIT

IND at PIT, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 51%, market PIT 56%.

4 min

Steelers · deep dive · week 4

Pittsburgh 27‑24 loss: the offence stalled

Week 4, at Cleveland. Explosive-play rate ranked 1st of 2 this week; EPA per play ranked 2nd. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min

Featured game · week 5

Tampa Bay at Dallas: what decides it

TB at DAL, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model DAL 72%, market DAL 79%.

4 min

The ledger · week 4

Week 4 graded: 11‑5, market 9‑7

We beat the market this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.

2 min

Rewind · week 4

Atlanta 45, New Orleans 24: the quarterback we didn't account for

We had New Orleans at 52%. The market had New Orleans by 1.5. Atlanta won 45-24 at Caesars Superdome. Michael Penix Jr. was back as Atlanta's quarterback; Cooper Rush had played most of their earlier games.

3 min

Rewind · week 4

Carolina 32, Detroit 26: what nobody priced

We had Detroit at 69%. The market had Detroit by 4.5. Carolina won 32-26 at Bank of America Stadium.

3 min

Rewind · week 4

San Francisco 24, Denver 14: how it played out

We had San Francisco at 80%. The market had San Francisco by 3. San Francisco won 24-14 at Levi's Stadium.

3 min

Rewind · week 4

Cleveland 27, Pittsburgh 24: our lean held, the market's didn't

We had Cleveland at 53%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Cleveland won 27-24 at Huntington Bank Field.

3 min

Featured game · week 4

Detroit at Carolina: what decides it

DET at CAR, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Model DET 70%, market DET 62%.

3 min

Featured game · week 4

Denver at San Francisco: what decides it

DEN at SF, Sunday 4:25pm ET. Model SF 79%, market SF 57%.

4 min

Rewind · week 3

Chicago 27, Philadelphia 7: the backup who won it

Case Keenum started for the injured Caleb Williams and didn't turn it over once. Philadelphia turned it over three times, including Andy Dalton's only throw of the night at the goal line.

3 min

Steelers · deep dive · week 3

Pittsburgh win 30‑27: the offence moved the ball, but the defence got pushed around

Week 3, vs Cincinnati. Explosive-play rate ranked 3rd of 32 this week; EPA per play allowed ranked 30th. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min

The ledger · week 3

Week 3 graded: 7‑9, market 8‑8

The market beat us this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.

2 min

Rewind · week 3

Atlanta 35, Green Bay 14: what we missed

We had Green Bay at 69%. Atlanta won by 21. The empty tank angle we flagged landed, but the bigger miss was ours: Michael Penix was back and the model priced a backup-quarterback offence.

3 min