The board · week 3 · 2026

Every game, model against the market

Top strip is the model's win probability, bottom strip the de-vigged betting market. F&D is our 0–100 score for how clear-cut the call is. “vs mkt” is how many points more or less confident the model is than the market in its own pick. It marks disagreement, not a betting edge.Model run 23 Sept, 10:05 UK

UK	Game	Model and market	vs mkt	Proj. score	Total
Friday 25 September
01:158:15 PM ET	ATL at GB	Model GB 70% Market GB 70%	+0.6	17 - 25	42.0
Sunday 27 September
18:001:00 PM ET	CAR at CLE	Model CAR 64% Market CAR 57%	+7.3	25 - 22	46.2
18:001:00 PM ET	CIN at PIT	Model CIN 55% Market CIN 63%	-8.3	20 - 18	38.2
18:001:00 PM ET	HOU at IND	Model IND 53% Market HOU 57%	+10.4	25 - 24	48.5
18:001:00 PM ET	KC at MIA	Model KC 59% Market KC 86%	-27.1	25 - 21	45.9
18:001:00 PM ET	LAC at BUF	Model BUF 83% Market BUF 74%	+8.3	16 - 30	46.5
18:001:00 PM ET	NE at JAX	Model JAX 69% Market JAX 58%	+10.6	20 - 24	44.0
18:001:00 PM ET	NYJ at DET	Model DET 53% Market DET 72%	-18.9	25 - 26	50.8
18:001:00 PM ET	SEA at WAS	Model SEA 71% Market SEA 72%	-0.9	27 - 21	47.3
18:001:00 PM ET	TEN at NYG	Model TEN 53% Market NYG 55%	+8.1	22 - 23	44.9
21:054:05 PM ET	ARI at SF	Model SF 67% Market SF 80%	-12.6	19 - 26	45.1
21:054:05 PM ET	MIN at TB	Model MIN 52% Market MIN 52%	-0.4	22 - 23	45.0
21:254:25 PM ET	BAL at DAL	Model DAL 54% Market BAL 62%	+15.3	26 - 27	52.9
21:254:25 PM ET	LV at NO	Model NO 57% Market NO 62%	-5.0	23 - 26	48.2
Monday 28 September
01:208:20 PM ET	LA at DEN	Model LA 65% Market LA 56%	+8.9	23 - 19	42.6
Tuesday 29 September
01:158:15 PM ET	PHI at CHI	Model PHI 52% Market PHI 66%	-14.9	24 - 23	47.3

Steelers games are highlighted. Projected score becomes the final score once a game is graded. Nothing here is a tip: across 2025 our flat-bet ROI at posted odds was negative, so read this as one view of each game.