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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
The record

Every pick, published before kickoff, graded in public

Model47-3259.5% of picks right
Market favourite49-3062.0%
Brier score0.248lower is better, 0.250 is a coin flip
Published late0of 79 picks after kickoff

When we say 65%, does it happen 65% of the time?

Picks grouped by the model's confidence, 299 picks. Lines show the 95% range; the dashed diagonal is perfect calibration. (pick-side probability, Wilson 95% CI; all graded games 2025-2026)

30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%50%60%70%80%90%100%50%–60%: predicted 54.6%, actual 57.9% (n=145)n=14560%–70%: predicted 64.9%, actual 66.7% (n=105)n=10570%–80%: predicted 74.1%, actual 63.2% (n=38)n=3880%–90%: predicted 82.4%, actual 81.8% (n=11)n=11Model confidence in its pick

Where we disagreed with the market

Each 2026 game: the market's home-win chance across, the model's up. Green is a right pick, red a miss.

0%0%50%50%100%100%Wk 1 ARI at LAC: model 59%, market 81% homeWk 1 ATL at PIT: model 62%, market 71% homeWk 1 BAL at IND: model 53%, market 39% homeWk 1 BUF at HOU: model 35%, market 50% homeWk 1 CHI at CAR: model 31%, market 40% homeWk 1 CLE at JAX: model 75%, market 79% homeWk 1 DAL at NYG: model 26%, market 41% homeWk 1 DEN at KC: model 46%, market 55% homeWk 1 GB at MIN: model 36%, market 54% homeWk 1 MIA at LV: model 25%, market 60% homeWk 1 NE at SEA: model 54%, market 60% homeWk 1 NO at DET: model 63%, market 73% homeWk 1 NYJ at TEN: model 42%, market 52% homeWk 1 SF at LA: model 67%, market 64% homeWk 1 TB at CIN: model 51%, market 64% homeWk 1 WAS at PHI: model 55%, market 68% homeWk 2 CAR at ATL: model 39%, market 42% homeWk 2 CIN at HOU: model 45%, market 57% homeWk 2 CLE at TB: model 71%, market 78% homeWk 2 DET at BUF: model 74%, market 68% homeWk 2 GB at NYJ: model 63%, market 38% homeWk 2 IND at KC: model 68%, market 70% homeWk 2 JAX at DEN: model 34%, market 57% homeWk 2 LV at LAC: model 44%, market 73% homeWk 2 MIA at SF: model 61%, market 87% homeWk 2 MIN at CHI: model 67%, market 66% homeWk 2 NO at BAL: model 77%, market 76% homeWk 2 NYG at LA: model 44%, market 72% homeWk 2 PHI at TEN: model 42%, market 27% homeWk 2 PIT at NE: model 55%, market 67% homeWk 2 SEA at ARI: model 64%, market 36% homeWk 2 WAS at DAL: model 61%, market 66% homeWk 3 ARI at SF: model 70%, market 77% homeWk 3 ATL at GB: model 70%, market 68% homeWk 3 BAL at DAL: model 46%, market 40% homeWk 3 CAR at CLE: model 40%, market 45% homeWk 3 CIN at PIT: model 48%, market 38% homeWk 3 HOU at IND: model 48%, market 47% homeWk 3 KC at MIA: model 31%, market 18% homeWk 3 LA at DEN: model 30%, market 46% homeWk 3 LAC at BUF: model 82%, market 74% homeWk 3 LV at NO: model 60%, market 64% homeWk 3 MIN at TB: model 48%, market 49% homeWk 3 NE at JAX: model 66%, market 58% homeWk 3 NYJ at DET: model 59%, market 72% homeWk 3 PHI at CHI: model 43%, market 37% homeWk 3 SEA at WAS: model 26%, market 23% homeWk 3 TEN at NYG: model 47%, market 54% homeWk 4 ARI at NYG: model 51%, market 45% homeWk 4 ATL at NO: model 53%, market 53% homeWk 4 DAL at HOU: model 47%, market 57% homeWk 4 DEN at SF: model 80%, market 57% homeWk 4 DET at CAR: model 31%, market 37% homeWk 4 GB at TB: model 51%, market 40% homeWk 4 IND at WAS: model 50%, market 36% homeWk 4 JAX at CIN: model 38%, market 56% homeWk 4 KC at LV: model 32%, market 34% homeWk 4 LA at PHI: model 42%, market 38% homeWk 4 LAC at SEA: model 80%, market 76% homeWk 4 MIA at MIN: model 69%, market 81% homeWk 4 NE at BUF: model 78%, market 72% homeWk 4 NYJ at CHI: model 66%, market 62% homeWk 4 PIT at CLE: model 53%, market 43% homeWk 4 TEN at BAL: model 81%, market 84% homeWk 5 BAL at ATL: model 47%, market 61% homeWk 5 BUF at LA: model 55%, market 62% homeWk 5 CHI at GB: model 35%, market 47% homeWk 5 CIN at MIA: model 31%, market 25% homeWk 5 CLE at NYJ: model 53%, market 55% homeWk 5 DEN at LAC: model 34%, market 38% homeWk 5 DET at ARI: model 28%, market 32% homeWk 5 HOU at TEN: model 32%, market 26% homeWk 5 IND at PIT: model 50%, market 56% homeWk 5 LV at NE: model 55%, market 64% homeWk 5 MIN at NO: model 39%, market 46% homeWk 5 NYG at WAS: model 38%, market 60% homeWk 5 PHI at JAX: model 78%, market 78% homeWk 5 SF at SEA: model 54%, market 59% homeWk 5 TB at DAL: model 72%, market 79% homeMarket: home win chanceModel
The pick ledger · 2026

The receipts

WeekGameOur pickScoreResultPublished (UK)Before kickoff
Wk 5TB at DAL72%24-16Wrong8 Oct 10:1015.1h
Wk 5PHI at JAX78%17-19Right11 Oct 11:293.0h
Wk 5CHI at GB65%7-31Wrong11 Oct 11:296.5h
Wk 5CIN at MIA69%31-24Right11 Oct 11:296.5h
Wk 5CLE at NYJ53%12-17Right11 Oct 11:296.5h
Wk 5HOU at TEN68%26-3Right11 Oct 11:296.5h
Wk 5IND at PIT50%22-34Right11 Oct 11:296.5h
Wk 5LV at NE55%17-45Right11 Oct 11:296.5h
Wk 5MIN at NO61%23-13Right11 Oct 11:296.5h
Wk 5NYG at WAS63%27-27Right11 Oct 11:296.5h
Wk 5DEN at LAC66%23-17Right11 Oct 11:299.6h
Wk 5DET at ARI72%45-21Right11 Oct 11:299.9h
Wk 5SF at SEA54%32-29Wrong11 Oct 11:299.9h
Wk 5BAL at ATL53%30-23Right11 Oct 11:2913.8h
Wk 5BUF at LA55%37-34Wrong12 Oct 10:1515.0h
Wk 4PIT at CLE53%24-27Right1 Oct 10:0915.1h
Wk 4IND at WAS50%30-13Wrong4 Oct 10:114.3h
Wk 4ARI at NYG51%24-36Right4 Oct 10:117.8h
Wk 4DAL at HOU53%34-30Right4 Oct 10:117.8h
Wk 4GB at TB51%17-14Wrong4 Oct 10:117.8h
Wk 4JAX at CIN62%22-17Right4 Oct 10:117.8h
Wk 4LA at PHI58%24-20Right4 Oct 10:117.8h
Wk 4NE at BUF78%29-26Wrong4 Oct 10:117.8h
Wk 4NYJ at CHI66%12-23Right4 Oct 10:117.8h
Wk 4TEN at BAL81%18-24Right4 Oct 10:117.8h
Wk 4MIA at MIN69%10-15Right4 Oct 10:1110.9h
Wk 4DEN at SF80%14-24Right4 Oct 10:1111.2h
Wk 4KC at LV68%30-27Right4 Oct 10:1111.2h
Wk 4LAC at SEA80%23-30Right4 Oct 10:1111.2h
Wk 4DET at CAR69%26-32Wrong4 Oct 10:1115.1h
Wk 4ATL at NO53%45-24Wrong5 Oct 10:1515.0h
Wk 3ATL at GB70%35-14Wrong24 Sept 10:0615.1h
Wk 3CAR at CLE60%18-21Wrong27 Sept 10:097.8h
Wk 3CIN at PIT52%27-30Wrong27 Sept 10:097.8h
Wk 3HOU at IND52%17-19Wrong27 Sept 10:097.8h
Wk 3KC at MIA69%24-10Right27 Sept 10:097.8h
Wk 3LAC at BUF82%16-24Right27 Sept 10:097.8h
Wk 3NE at JAX66%6-35Right27 Sept 10:097.8h
Wk 3NYJ at DET59%24-31Right27 Sept 10:097.8h
Wk 3SEA at WAS74%31-33Wrong27 Sept 10:097.8h
Wk 3TEN at NYG53%7-12Wrong27 Sept 10:097.8h
Wk 3ARI at SF70%30-36Right27 Sept 10:0910.9h
Wk 3MIN at TB53%23-16Right27 Sept 10:0910.9h
Wk 3BAL at DAL54%34-31Right27 Sept 10:0911.3h
Wk 3LV at NO60%35-27Wrong27 Sept 10:0911.3h
Wk 3LA at DEN70%26-30Wrong27 Sept 10:0915.2h
Wk 3PHI at CHI57%7-27Wrong28 Sept 10:1315.0h
Wk 2DET at BUF74%31-41Right17 Sept 10:0515.2h
Wk 2CAR at ATL61%34-3Right20 Sept 16:012.0h
Wk 2CIN at HOU55%20-6Right20 Sept 16:012.0h
Wk 2CLE at TB71%23-19Wrong20 Sept 16:012.0h
Wk 2GB at NYJ63%20-17Wrong20 Sept 16:012.0h
Wk 2MIN at CHI67%9-3Wrong20 Sept 16:012.0h
Wk 2NO at BAL77%24-17Wrong20 Sept 16:012.0h
Wk 2PHI at TEN58%24-20Right20 Sept 16:012.0h
Wk 2PIT at NE55%3-20Right20 Sept 16:012.0h
Wk 2JAX at DEN66%13-20Wrong20 Sept 16:015.1h
Wk 2LV at LAC56%26-14Right20 Sept 16:015.1h
Wk 2MIA at SF61%13-35Right20 Sept 16:015.4h
Wk 2SEA at ARI64%31-7Wrong20 Sept 16:015.4h
Wk 2WAS at DAL61%20-37Right20 Sept 16:015.4h
Wk 2IND at KC68%30-33Right20 Sept 16:019.3h
Wk 2NYG at LA56%6-28Wrong21 Sept 10:0915.1h
Wk 1NE at SEA54%10-13Right9 Sept 09:2315.9h
Wk 1SF at LA67%27-7Wrong10 Sept 19:026.5h
Wk 1ATL at PIT62%13-20Right13 Sept 10:057.9h
Wk 1BAL at IND53%41-23Wrong13 Sept 10:057.9h
Wk 1BUF at HOU65%36-31Right13 Sept 10:057.9h
Wk 1CHI at CAR69%59-37Right13 Sept 10:057.9h
Wk 1CLE at JAX75%10-34Right13 Sept 10:057.9h
Wk 1NO at DET63%30-31Right13 Sept 10:057.9h
Wk 1NYJ at TEN58%23-10Right13 Sept 10:057.9h
Wk 1TB at CIN51%27-33Right13 Sept 10:057.9h
Wk 1ARI at LAC59%26-14Wrong13 Sept 10:0511.3h
Wk 1GB at MIN64%22-39Wrong13 Sept 10:0511.3h
Wk 1MIA at LV75%13-27Wrong13 Sept 10:0511.3h
Wk 1WAS at PHI55%22-24Right13 Sept 10:0511.3h
Wk 1DAL at NYG74%20-28Wrong13 Sept 10:0515.2h
Wk 1DEN at KC54%10-31Wrong14 Sept 10:0815.1h

Each pick is graded from the last model run before its true kickoff, and every run is stored unchanged, so any row can be checked against the file we published at the time.