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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Steelers · 2026 · 3-2

Pittsburgh, every week

A deep dive after every game, a preview before it, and on a short week one piece: what went wrong and what to fix for the next opponent.

W20-13wk 1 vs ATLL3-20wk 2 at NEW30-27wk 3 vs CINL24-27wk 4 at CLEW34-22wk 5 vs IND
Where they rank · of 32, through week 5
Offence21stEPA per play
Defence18thEPA allowed
Third downs28th33% converted
Pass defence18thEPA per dropback allowed
Pass rush14th6.3% sack rate
Passing26thEPA per dropback
The roster · F&D form, last 17 games

Who's playing well

All players
Offence
Aaron RodgersQB · 60 established71Mason RudolphQB70Jaylen WarrenRB · 98 established98Rico DowdleRB · 61 established86DK MetcalfWR · 86 established83Roman WilsonWR67Michael PittmanWR · 68 established58Isaiah HodginsWR56Pat FreiermuthTE · 88 established93Darnell WashingtonTE · 79 established83
Defence
T.J. WattLB · 97 established91Alex HighsmithLB · 88 established90Nick HerbigLB · 87 established78Sebastian Joseph-DayDL · 54 established65KJ HenryDL61Cameron HeywardDL · 88 established90Keeanu BentonDL · 78 established87Derrick HarmonDL73Yahya BlackDL46Payton WilsonLB · 80 established93Cole HolcombLB · 50 established52Patrick QueenLB · 55 established42Jamel DeanDB · 78 established91Terell SmithDB70Sean Murphy-BuntingDB · 54 established58Brandin EcholsDB · 65 established56Jalen RamseyDB · 57 established48Asante Samuel Jr.DB · 46 established46DeShon ElliottDB · 83 established91Rayshawn JenkinsDB · 81 established63Jaquan BriskerDB · 72 established59
20,000 simulated seasons

Where the season lands

Played games fixed at their real results, the rest simulated with the model. Re-run every Tuesday; this run is through week 5.

Wins9.1
Playoffs45%
Division14%
Super Bowl0.5%
12345678910111213141516

Final win total, share of simulations. Gold is the most likely.

Steelers breakdowns

Steelers · deep dive · week 5

Pittsburgh win 34‑22: the red zone was clinical, but the offence stalled

Week 5, vs Indianapolis. Red-zone TD rate ranked 1st of 30 this week; success rate ranked 17th. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min
Rewind · week 5

Pittsburgh 34, Indianapolis 22: how it played out

We had Pittsburgh at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 34-22 at Acrisure Stadium.

3 min
Steelers · preview · week 5

Pittsburgh at home to Indianapolis: the model leans PIT

IND at PIT, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 51%, market PIT 56%.

4 min
Steelers · deep dive · week 4

Pittsburgh 27‑24 loss: the offence stalled

Week 4, at Cleveland. Explosive-play rate ranked 1st of 2 this week; EPA per play ranked 2nd. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min
Rewind · week 4

Cleveland 27, Pittsburgh 24: our lean held, the market's didn't

We had Cleveland at 53%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Cleveland won 27-24 at Huntington Bank Field.

3 min
Steelers · deep dive · week 3

Pittsburgh win 30‑27: the offence moved the ball, but the defence got pushed around

Week 3, vs Cincinnati. Explosive-play rate ranked 3rd of 32 this week; EPA per play allowed ranked 30th. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min