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SFPittsburgh 34, Indianapolis 22: how it played out
We had Pittsburgh at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 34-22 at Acrisure Stadium.
We had Pittsburgh at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 34-22 at Acrisure Stadium. Our lean held, but at 50% that was close to a coin flip.
How it swung
1. In the 1st quarter (8:57), Aaron Rodgers found Jaylen Warren for a 80-yard touchdown, a 20-point swing in win probability towards Pittsburgh.
3. In the 2nd quarter (7:48), Tyler Warren ran in a 1-yard touchdown, a 13-point swing in win probability towards Indianapolis.
5. In the 3rd quarter (7:16), Jaylen Warren ran in a 50-yard touchdown, a 13-point swing in win probability towards Pittsburgh.
Who won the matchups
DK Metcalf against Indianapolis: Indianapolis won it. Metcalf held to 12 yards on 4 targets, against his usual 56.
T.J. Watt against Indianapolis: Indianapolis won it. Watt didn't register a sack or a QB hit.
Tyler Warren against Pittsburgh: Warren won it. 83 yards on 9 targets, above his usual 40.
Not much. A 50% lean landing is close to a coin flip going our way. The full record, including the misses, is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 5; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-11T10-29-48Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.