SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
BAL
CLE
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
SFThe Giants at Washington: model and market split
NYG at WAS, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model NYG 61%, market WAS 62%.
Week 5, Sunday 1:00pm ET. The Giants visit Washington. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| NYG | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.05 (22nd) | -0.04 (21st) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | +0.02 (16th) | +0.03 (20th) |
| Offence success rate | 40% (26th) | 39% (29th) |
| Third-down conversion | 44% (10th) | 32% (31st) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 22% (15th) | 25% (25th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 14% (31st) | 28% (6th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 54% (24th) | 64% (13th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-4 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Washington's pass rush (6th in pressure generated) against a the Giants line ranked 15th in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup. Washington's protection (25th in pressure allowed) should hold up against the Giants's rush (31st).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 4 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Malik Nabers against Washington: best way in: short throws. Washington rank 28th against short throws, which make up 56% of Nabers's targets. Work the right side: 39% of his targets go that way and Washington rank 29th defending throws there.
Stefon Diggs against the Giants: no obvious soft spot. the Giants are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Diggs's likeliest route is short throws (69% of his targets), where they rank 15th. Work the middle: 28% of his targets go that way and the Giants rank 25th defending throws there.
Jameis Winston against Washington: a pass defence to exploit. Washington rank 29th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 28th against short throws. Pressure: Washington are 17th at getting sacks, and the Giants are 26th at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has the Giants at 61% (low confidence), with a line of NYG by 0.7. The market disagrees: it makes Washington 62% favourites at WAS by 3.5. That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-08T09-10-43Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.