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SFPittsburgh win 34‑22: the red zone was clinical, but the offence stalled
Week 5, vs Indianapolis. Red-zone TD rate ranked 1st of 30 this week; success rate ranked 17th. Here's what the data says happened.
The Steelers beat Indianapolis 34-22 in week 5. As a fan I'd like to tell you it was all one thing. The numbers say it wasn't, so here's the game broken down the same way we'd break down anyone else's: protection, who got open, the calls, the drives, and the defence.
Protection
PFR's pressure charting for week 5 hasn't landed yet, so this section leans on play-by-play: 2 of 33 dropbacks ended in a hit or a sack.
A.Rodgers: EPA per dropback, clean vs hit or sacked (week 5)
Who got open, and where the ball went
| Player | Tgt | Sep (yd) | Catch % | Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germie Bernard | 9 | 2.4 | 67% | 80 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 7 | 2.2 | 71% | 44 |
Targets vs separation (Next Gen Stats, week 5; league average separation 2.9 yd)
On 32 charted passes, A.Rodgers threw to his first read 0% of the time (league 4%) and checked down on 0% (league 1%). Play action was used on 0% of snaps (league 1%). FTN charted 0 interception-worthy throws and 0 drops.
The calls and the drives
In neutral situations (early downs, within a score, first three quarters) Pittsburgh threw on 69% of plays (league 49%). Passes were worth +0.13 EPA and runs +0.42. 36% of third downs were 7+ yards to go (league 47%) — so early downs mostly kept them on schedule; the problem was converting.
10 drives, 4 trips inside the 20, 100% of them finished with a touchdown (league 67%). Drive endings: 4 touchdowns, 3 punts, 2 field goals, 1 end of half.
The defence
Indianapolis managed +0.00 EPA per play against us (16th of 30 defences this week), converted 27% of third downs, and we got 1 sack and 0 takeaways. Season to date the offence ranks 21st and the defence 18th of 32 by EPA per play.
Who won the matchups
DK Metcalf against Indianapolis: Indianapolis won it. Metcalf held to 12 yards on 4 targets, against his usual 56.
T.J. Watt against Indianapolis: Indianapolis won it. Watt didn't register a sack or a QB hit.
Tyler Warren against Pittsburgh: Warren won it. 83 yards on 9 targets, above his usual 40.
Success rate: 44% this week, 17th of 30 (league 42%). Tampa Bay rank 7th of 32 in EPA per play allowed so far (-0.06, league +0.01). Stay on schedule: early-down efficiency is what keeps third downs manageable. Third-down conversion: 36% this week, 17th of 30 (league 40%). Tampa Bay rank 6th of 32 in third-down conversion allowed so far (34%, league 41%). The distances were manageable, so this is execution on the money down — the calls and the throws on third, not the early downs.
Not available when this was drafted: PFR pressure charting for week 5. Those sections use play-by-play instead.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; Next Gen Stats; FTN charting. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.