PHI
CHIWeek 3 graded: 7‑9, market 8‑8
The market beat us this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.
Every week we grade every pick we published, against the result and against the market. Week 3: the model went 7-9; the market favourite went 8-8. The market beat us this week.
Where we were wrong
SEA at 74% (SEA 31 @ WAS 33). LAR at 70% (LAR 26 @ DEN 30). GB at 70% (ATL 35 @ GB 14). The most confident misses are the ones worth learning from, so they go first.
Us vs the market
We were right where the market was wrong 0 times; the market was right where we were wrong 1 time (NYG).
One note on the market's number. It's graded at the odds when we published our picks, so the comparison is like for like: 8-8. At closing prices the market went 9-7. The difference is Rams at Denver: the Rams were 54% favourites when we published, and by kickoff Denver had closed as 1.5-point favourites. Denver won 30-26.
| Game | Pick | Model % | Score | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC @ BUF | BUF | 82% | 16-24 | Right | Right |
| SEA @ WAS | SEA | 74% | 31-33 | Wrong | Wrong |
| ARI @ SF | SF | 70% | 30-36 | Right | Right |
| LAR @ DEN | LAR | 70% | 26-30 | Wrong | Wrong |
| ATL @ GB | GB | 70% | 35-14 | Wrong | Wrong |
| KC @ MIA | KC | 69% | 24-10 | Right | Right |
| NE @ JAX | JAX | 66% | 6-35 | Right | Right |
| LV @ NO | NO | 60% | 35-27 | Wrong | Wrong |
| CAR @ CLE | CAR | 60% | 18-21 | Wrong | Wrong |
| NYJ @ DET | DET | 59% | 24-31 | Right | Right |
| PHI @ CHI | PHI | 57% | 7-27 | Wrong | Wrong |
| BAL @ DAL | BAL | 54% | 34-31 | Right | Right |
| TEN @ NYG | TEN | 53% | 7-12 | Wrong | Right |
| MIN @ TB | MIN | 52% | 23-16 | Right | Right |
| CIN @ PIT | CIN | 52% | 27-30 | Wrong | Wrong |
| HOU @ IND | HOU | 52% | 17-19 | Wrong | Wrong |
Every week 3 pick, most confident first
Picking winners is not beating the price. Across 2025 our flat-bet ROI at posted odds was negative. Use the model as one view of the game, not as a tip.
Sources: results_dashboard.json (2026-09-29T09:00:48.715979Z). Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
