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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15WASNYG66%Sun 14:30NEDET56%Sun 18:00BUF69%NYJSun 18:00CAR55%NOSun 18:00HOU67%CLESun 18:00JAX77%TENSun 18:00KC75%ATLSun 18:00MIAIND54%Sun 18:00MINGB80%Sun 21:05LA74%ARISun 21:05SEA68%LVSun 21:25SF66%DALMon 01:20PITCIN66%Tue 01:15LACBAL59%
Eagles
lost by 20
Final · week 3
7–27
at Soldier Field · Mon 28 Sept
Bears
won by 20

How the game swung

The Bears' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 08:56: CHI score (0-6)Q1 08:47: CHI score (0-7)Q2 01:56: CHI score (0-10)Q2 00:01: PHI score (6-10)Q2 00:00: PHI score (7-10)Q3 10:21: CHI score (7-13)Q3 05:55: CHI score (7-19)Q3 05:47: CHI score (7-20)Q4 07:21: CHI score (7-26)Q4 07:19: CHI score (7-27)12345CHI winning ↑PHI winning ↓
■ Bears ahead■ Eagles ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q2 6:21 - Philadelphia turnover by A.Dalton (-13% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q1 10:52 · Fourth down
C.Keenum EPA +2.6

11-C.Keenum pass short left to 87-S.Roush to PHI 16 for 16 yards (53-Z.Baun).

+11%win chance to CHI
2
Q1 1:15 · Turnover
J.Hurts EPA -4.0

(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 8-T.Bigsby to PHI 15 for 5 yards (94-A.Booker; 12-D.Bush). FUMBLES (94-A.Booker), RECOVERED by CHI-32-X.Woods at PHI 15.

+8%win chance to CHI
3
Q2 14:02 · Fourth down
C.Keenum EPA -2.6

(Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (27-Q.Mitchell).

+8%win chance to PHI
4
Q2 6:21 · Turnover
A.Dalton EPA -5.6

(Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Thieneman at CHI -9. Touchback.

+13%win chance to CHI
5
Q3 5:55 · Explosive play
C.Keenum EPA +3.5

11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 14-K.Raymond for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+8%win chance to CHI

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

DeVonta Smith won it

Smith won it deep: 30 of his 65 yards came on throws of 20+ yards.

Profile
Targets8
Yards65
After the catch27
Yards on short throws54%
deep share of yards46%
Expected (his usual)32%
Even

Even: Odunze had 44 yards on 6 targets, close to his usual 52.

Profile
Targets6
Yards44
After the catch0
Yards on short throws16%
deep share of yards50%
Expected (his usual)5159%

Every drive

Eagles drive left to right, Bears right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
TD · 11 pl · 66 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 39 yds
Q1
Punt · 7 pl · 29 yds
Q1
Turnover · 2 pl · 5 yds
Q1
Downs · 6 pl · 12 yds
Q2
Turnover · 12 pl · 75 yds
Q2
FG · 10 pl · 69 yds
Q2
TD · 8 pl · 67 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 38 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · -2 yds
Q3
TD · 5 pl · 71 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · -2 yds
Q3
Turnover · 5 pl · 24 yds
Q3
TD · 13 pl · 52 yds
Q4
Downs · 6 pl · 26 yds
Q4
Half · 6 pl · 42 yds
PHI goal2040504020CHI goal

Side by side

248
Total yards
377
-0.30
EPA per play
+0.09
40%
Success rate
49%
13
First downs
20
2
Sacks taken
0
3
Turnovers
0
2/9
Third downs
5/13
Eagles leaders
PassingJ.Hurts16/25 · 153 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
RushingS.Barkley15 car · 82 yds
ReceivingD.Smith6/8 · 65 yds
Bears leaders
PassingC.Keenum24/34 · 247 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingD.Swift20 car · 84 yds
ReceivingK.Raymond6/7 · 90 yds

Scoring

Q1 08:56(Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 10-L.Burden for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 08:478-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.0-7
Q2 01:568-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.0-10
Q2 00:01(:01) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.6-10
Q2 00:004-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.7-10
Q3 10:218-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.7-13
Q3 05:5511-C.Keenum pass short middle to 14-K.Raymond for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7-19
Q3 05:478-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.7-20
Q4 07:2111-C.Keenum up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.7-26
Q4 07:198-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. PENALTY on CHI-73-J.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between d7-27

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had PHI 57%, the market PHI 63%. It finished PHI 7, CHI 27.

Philadelphia ranks #10 in turnovers (2.9%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 28 Sept, 10:13 UK, before kickoff.

Rewind · week 3

Chicago 27, Philadelphia 7: the backup who won it

Case Keenum started for the injured Caleb Williams and didn't turn it over once. Philadelphia turned it over three times, including Andy Dalton's only throw of the night at the goal line.

3 min