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SFTampa Bay 24, Dallas 16: the backup who won it
We had Dallas at 72%. The market had Dallas by 9.5. Tampa Bay won 24-16 at AT&T Stadium. Tampa Bay started Jalon Daniels rather than Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield was ruled Out).
We had Dallas at 72%. The market had Dallas by 9.5. Tampa Bay won 24-16 at AT&T Stadium. We were wrong, and so was the market.
How it swung
1. In the 3rd quarter (14:54), Bucky Irving ran for 72 yards, a 16-point swing in win probability towards Tampa Bay.
3. In the 3rd quarter (9:36), Jalon Daniels found Tez Johnson for 64 yards, a 16-point swing in win probability towards Tampa Bay.
5. With 1:22 left, Alex Anzalone intercepted Dak Prescott's short throw for Jake Ferguson, a 17-point swing in win probability towards Tampa Bay.
Who played quarterback
Tampa Bay started Jalon Daniels rather than Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield was ruled Out).
Who won the matchups
Emeka Egbuka against Dallas: Even. Egbuka had 38 yards on 9 targets, close to his usual 48.
CeeDee Lamb against Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay won it. Lamb held to 9 yards on 5 targets, against his usual 93.
The reasons that mattered: Dallas turned it over 2 times to 0, which no pre-game number prices.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 5; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-08T09-10-43Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.