PHI
JAX
CHI
GB
CIN
MIA
CLE
NYJ
HOU
TEN
IND
PIT
LV
NE
MIN
NO
NYG
WAS
DEN
LAC
DET
ARI
SF
SEA
BAL
ATL
BUF
LA
DAL look like a strong play here. TB have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 4.
Quarterback watch: TB starting QB Baker Mayfield is Out
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Dallas rank 30th against intermediate throws, which make up 40% of Egbuka's targets.
- Work the middle: 26% of his targets go that way and Dallas rank 32nd defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 47th percentile for separation and 22nd for hands, and Kaiir Elam allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TB defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tampa Bay rank 22nd against intermediate throws, which make up 31% of Lamb's targets.
- Work the left side: 40% of his targets go that way and Tampa Bay rank 22nd defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 58th percentile for separation and 36th for hands, and Zyon McCollum allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Buccaneers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)TB offenceDAL defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Buccaneers offence has a 7-place edge.
When the Cowboys have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DAL offenceTB defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Cowboys offence has a 19-place edge.
Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Buccaneers this seasonCowboys this season24-26TB at DAL2024-12
31-14DAL at TB2023-01
19-3TB at DAL2022-09
29-31DAL at TB2021-09
Injury report
Buccaneersmodel impact 0.0| Baker MayfieldQB · Thumb | Out |
| Antoine WinfieldDB · Ribs | Out |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Knee - PCL | IR |
| David SillsWR | IR |
| Josh HayesCB · Knee | IR |
| Mohamed KamaraDL · Knee | IR |
| Ko KieftTE · Elbow | Questionable |
| Anthony NelsonLB · Illness | Questionable |
| SirVocea DennisLB · Ankle | Questionable |
| Chase McLaughlinK · Groin | Questionable |
| Benjamin MorrisonDB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
Cowboysmodel impact 0.0| Malik DavisRB · Hip | IR |
| DJ RogersTE · Knee | IR |
| Princeton FantTE · Knee - ACL + MCL | IR |
| Devin MooreCB | IR |
| Jonathan BullardDE · Calf | IR |
| Marist LiufauLB · Forearm | IR |
| Kelvin GilliamDT · Triceps | IR |
| Tyler SmithOL · Thumb | IR |
| Matt HennessyOL · Neck | IR |
| P.J. LockeDB · Foot | IR |
| Jalen ThompsonDB · Hamstring | IR |
| DeMarvion OvershownLB · Hamstring | Doubtful |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak PrescottDALrole up | Passing yards | 265.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Jalon DanielsTB | Passing yards | 181.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 90% | |
| Dak PrescottDALrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.46 | 65% | 60% | |
| Jalon DanielsTB | Passing TDs | 0.5 | 1.42 | 67% | 90% | |
| Bucky IrvingTBrole up | Rushing yards | 51.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 80% | |
| Dak PrescottDALrole up | Rushing yards | 9.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 30% | |
| Jalon DanielsTB | Rushing yards | 44.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 60% | |
| Javonte WilliamsDALrole up | Rushing yards | 74.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 0% | |
| Kenny GainwellTB | Rushing yards | 11.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 40% | |
| Tyler GoodsonDAL | Rushing yards | 16.5 | 1.91 | 49% | 40% | |
| Bucky IrvingTBrole up | Receiving yards | 12.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% | |
| Cade OttonTBrole up | Receiving yards | 27.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 70% | |
| CeeDee LambDALrole up | Receiving yards | 79.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Chris GodwinTB | Receiving yards | 28.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 100% | |
| Emeka EgbukaTB | Receiving yards | 33.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| George PickensDALrole up | Receiving yards | 60.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Jake FergusonDALrole up | Receiving yards | 28.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 30% | |
| Javonte WilliamsDAL | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 40% | |
| Kenny GainwellTB | Receiving yards | 10.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 20% | |
| Ryan FlournoyDAL | Receiving yards | 31.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 14% | |
| Ted Hurst IIIDAL | Receiving yards | 20.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 0% | |
| Tez JohnsonTB | Receiving yards | 13.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 50% | |
| Bucky IrvingTBrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.28 | 41% | 60% | |
| Cade OttonTBrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.01 | 47% | 50% | |
| CeeDee LambDALrole up | Receptions | 6.5 | 2.07 | 46% | 70% | |
| Chris GodwinTB | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.94 | 49% | 100% | |
| Emeka EgbukaTB | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.61 | 59% | 50% | |
| George PickensDALrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Jake FergusonDALrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 40% | |
| Javonte WilliamsDAL | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.81 | 52% | 30% | |
| Kenny GainwellTB | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.58 | 60% | 10% | |
| Ryan FlournoyDAL | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.25 | 42% | 0% | |
| Ted Hurst IIIDAL | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.62 | 58% | 0% | |
| Tez JohnsonTB | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.28 | 41% | 0% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors DAL (72%) by 8.7 points.