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SFSeattle at Denver: what decides it
SEA at DEN, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model SEA 53%, market SEA 56%.
Week 6, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Seattle visit Denver. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| SEA | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.07 (25th) | -0.07 (24th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.13 (2nd) | -0.03 (14th) |
| Offence success rate | 41% (22nd) | 40% (26th) |
| Third-down conversion | 32% (30th) | 34% (28th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 28% (30th) | 22% (16th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 28% (5th) | 20% (21st) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 65% (12th) | 53% (28th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-5 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Seattle's defence (2nd) should have the upper hand on Denver's offence (24th). Denver's defence (14th) should have the upper hand on Seattle's offence (25th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 5 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Denver: a tough draw. Denver are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (8th, 8th, 8th). There's no obvious soft spot for Smith-Njigba to lean on.
Jaylen Waddle against Seattle: no obvious soft spot. Seattle are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Waddle's likeliest route is short throws (43% of his targets), where they rank 13th. Don't force deep balls: they've been Waddle's worst return (-0.19 EPA a target), and Seattle are 1st there.
Bo Nix against Seattle: a tough day in the air. Seattle rank 1st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (13th). Pressure: Seattle are 10th at getting sacks, and Denver are 2nd at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Seattle at 53% (low confidence), with a line of pick'em. The market agrees on the side at 56% (SEA by 2.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-14T09-18-48Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.