HOU
JAX
BAL
CLE
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SF
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to SEA.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Denver are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (8th, 8th, 8th). There's no obvious soft spot for Smith-Njigba to lean on.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Waddle's likeliest route is short throws (43% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Waddle's worst return (-0.19 EPA a target), and Seattle are 1st there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 72nd percentile for separation and 25th for hands, and Josh Jobe, Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen and Nehemiah Pritchett all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle rank 1st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (13th).
- Pressure: Seattle are 10th at getting sacks, and Denver are 2nd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Seahawks have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SEA offenceDEN defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Broncos defence has a 12-place edge.
When the Broncos have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DEN offenceSEA defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Seahawks defence has a 24-place edge.
Form and history
Seahawks this seasonBroncos this season20-26DEN at SEA2024-09
16-17DEN at SEA2022-09
Injury report
Seahawksmodel impact -0.7| Jacardia WrightRB · Foot | Out |
| Chazz SurrattLB · Calf | Out |
| Drake ThomasLB · Ankle | Out |
| Jake BoboWR · Knee | IR |
| Robbie OuztsRB | IR |
| Jadarian PriceRB · Chest | IR |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Anthony BradfordOL · Knee | IR |
| Mason RichmanOL · Knee | IR |
| Julian NealDB · Hamstring | IR |
| Bud ClarkDB · Ankle | IR |
| Aaron SmithLB | Questionable |
Broncosmodel impact -0.5| Pat SurtainCB · Ankle | Out |
| Talanoa HufangaDB · Ankle | Out |
| Pat BryantWR · Ankle | IR |
| Jonah ColemanRB · Ankle | IR |
| Caleb LohnerTE · Lower Body | IR |
| Matt HenningsenDE · Achilles | IR |
| Levelle BaileyLB · Leg | IR |
| Nick GargiuloOL · Knee | PUP |
| Michael DeiterOL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Frank CrumOT | IR |
| Riley MossDB · Ribs | Questionable |
| Duplicate PlayerILB | COV |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixDENrole up | Passing yards | 200.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 80% | |
| Sam DarnoldSEA | Passing yards | 220.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 90% | |
| Bo NixDENrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.69 | 35% | 70% | |
| Sam DarnoldSEArole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.27 | 41% | 60% | |
| Bo NixDENrole up | Rushing yards | 15.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 60% | |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA | Rushing yards | 66.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 10% | |
| George HolaniSEA | Rushing yards | 14.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 0% | |
| J.K. DobbinsDENrole up | Rushing yards | 47.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | Rushing yards | 0.5 | 4.10 | 23% | 50% | |
| Rashid ShaheedSEA | Rushing yards | 1.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| RJ HarveyDEN | Rushing yards | 14.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Sam DarnoldSEA | Rushing yards | 4.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 70% | |
| AJ BarnerSEA | Receiving yards | 23.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 20% | |
| Cooper KuppSEArole up | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 80% | |
| Courtland SuttonDENrole up | Receiving yards | 30.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 100% | |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA | Receiving yards | 9.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 10% | |
| Evan EngramDENrole up | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 90% | |
| George HolaniSEA | Receiving yards | 9.5 | 1.94 | 49% | 0% | |
| J.K. DobbinsDENrole up | Receiving yards | 4.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 80% | |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | Receiving yards | 92.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 30% | |
| Jaylen WaddleDEN | Receiving yards | 47.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyDENrole up | Receiving yards | 7.5 | 1.98 | 48% | 80% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr.DEN | Receiving yards | 10.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 50% | |
| Rashid ShaheedSEA | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 70% | |
| RJ HarveyDEN | Receiving yards | 20.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Tory HortonSEA | Receiving yards | 3.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 50% | |
| Troy FranklinDENrole up | Receiving yards | 17.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 50% | |
| AJ BarnerSEA | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.77 | 53% | 30% | |
| Cooper KuppSEArole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.12 | 45% | 70% | |
| Courtland SuttonDENrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.26 | 42% | 90% | |
| Emanuel WilsonSEArole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.83 | 51% | 0% | |
| Evan EngramDENrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.62 | 58% | 90% | |
| George HolaniSEA | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| J.K. DobbinsDENrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.53 | 37% | 70% | |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | Receptions | 6.5 | 1.74 | 54% | 40% | |
| Jaylen WaddleDEN | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.15 | 44% | 20% | |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyDENrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.82 | 33% | 80% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr.DEN | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.42 | 39% | 40% | |
| Rashid ShaheedSEA | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.52 | 62% | 80% | |
| RJ HarveyDEN | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 50% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors SEA (53%) by 0.1 points.