DAL
PHISeattle 20, Kansas City 3: what we missed
We had Kansas City at 60%. The market had Seattle by 3. Seattle won 20-3 at Lumen Field.
We had Kansas City at 60%. The market had Seattle by 3. Seattle won 20-3 at Lumen Field. We were wrong, and the market was right.
How it swung
1. In the 2nd quarter (6:49), Kenneth Walker III ran for 3 yards, a 7-point swing in win probability towards Kansas City.
2. In the 2nd quarter (6:09), Ty Okada intercepted Patrick Mahomes's short throw for Jalen Royals, a 14-point swing in win probability towards Seattle.
3. In the 2nd quarter (0:23), Nohl Williams intercepted Sam Darnold's short throw for Rashid Shaheed, a 11-point swing in win probability towards Kansas City.
Who won the matchups
Travis Kelce against Seattle: Even. Kelce had 44 yards on 8 targets, close to his usual 53.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Kansas City: Smith-Njigba won it. 150 yards on 12 targets, above his usual 107.
Patrick Mahomes against Seattle: Seattle won it. Mahomes managed -0.18 EPA a dropback, well below his usual +0.16.
Nothing in the pre-game numbers pointed this way. Some games are just misses, and we grade those too.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 7; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-25T09-12-48Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
