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PHISan Francisco at Atlanta: what decides it
SF at ATL, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model SF 72%, market SF 58%.
Week 7, Sunday 1:00pm ET. San Francisco visit Atlanta. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| SF | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | +0.21 (1st) | -0.06 (21st) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.06 (6th) | -0.02 (17th) |
| Offence success rate | 53% (1st) | 44% (13th) |
| Third-down conversion | 52% (1st) | 39% (19th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 16% (1st) | 18% (3rd) |
| Pressure rate generated | 26% (5th) | 25% (7th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 85% (1st) | 75% (4th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-6 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
San Francisco's offence (1st in EPA per play) meets a Atlanta defence ranked 17th — that's the mismatch to watch. San Francisco's defence (6th) should have the upper hand on Atlanta's offence (21st).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 6 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Mike Evans against Atlanta: best way in: intermediate throws. Atlanta rank 29th against intermediate throws, which make up 41% of Evans's targets. Work the middle: 27% of his targets go that way and Atlanta rank 23rd defending throws there.
Drake London against San Francisco: best way in: short throws. San Francisco rank 23rd against short throws, which make up 49% of London's targets. Work the left side: 42% of his targets go that way and San Francisco rank 30th defending throws there.
Michael Penix Jr. against San Francisco: a pass defence to exploit. San Francisco rank 24th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 23rd against short throws. Pressure: San Francisco are 32nd at getting sacks, and Atlanta are 10th at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has San Francisco at 72% (medium confidence), with a line of SF by 5.6. The market agrees on the side at 58% (SF by 2.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-22T09-10-53Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
