CHI
SEAWeek 8's biggest plays: Arizona and the swing of the week
The five plays that moved win probability the most across 14 games, the longest gains, and who added the most expected points.
Every play moves each team's chance of winning. Most move it a point or two. These are the plays that moved it the most in week 8, one per game, with the longest plays and the week's most explosive players after them.
The five biggest swings
| Game | Helped | Win chance | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ DAL | Arizona | 27% → 66% | 39 pts |
| KC @ DEN | Denver | 62% → 100% | 38 pts |
| TEN @ CIN | Tennessee | 17% → 45% | 28 pts |
| LAC @ LA | The Rams | 51% → 72% | 21 pts |
| PHI @ WAS | Washington | 55% → 75% | 20 pts |
Change in win probability for the team the play helped
1. Arizona at Dallas. With 10 seconds left, with Arizona trailing 30-24, Gardner Minshew found Michael Wilson for a 13-yard touchdown. Arizona's chance of winning went from 27% to 66%. Arizona went on to win.
2. Kansas City at Denver. With 4 seconds left, with Kansas City trailing 28-24, Patrick Mahomes sacked at den 12 for -6 yards. Denver's chance of winning went from 62% to 100%. Denver went on to win.
3. Tennessee at Cincinnati. In overtime (07:00), with Cincinnati leading 42-36, Evan McPherson kicked the extra point. Tennessee's chance of winning went from 17% to 45%. Tennessee still lost.
4. The Chargers at the Rams. In the 1st quarter (07:22), with the score tied at 0-0, Quentin Lake intercepted Justin Herbert's short throw for Charlie Kolar. The Rams' chance of winning went from 51% to 72%. The Rams went on to win.
5. Philadelphia at Washington. In the 3rd quarter (02:59), with Philadelphia trailing 13-10, Tanner McKee sacked at was 44 for -7 yards. fumbles, recovered by Charles Omenihu at was 40. Washington's chance of winning went from 55% to 75%. Washington went on to win.
The longest plays
| Player | Team | Play | Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | ATL | 76-yard catch | ATL @ TB |
| Emmett Johnson | KC | 73-yard catch, touchdown | KC @ DEN |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 63-yard run, touchdown | ARI @ DAL |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | 58-yard catch | CLE @ PIT |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | 54-yard catch | LAC @ LA |
The most explosive players
Explosive plays are runs of 10+ yards and catches of 20+. They decide games far more often than their share of snaps suggests.
| Player | Team | Explosive plays | Breakdown | Yards on them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 6 | 6 runs of 10+ | 103 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 5 | 5 runs of 10+ | 109 |
| Kenny Gainwell | TB | 5 | 5 runs of 10+ | 82 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 4 | 4 runs of 10+ | 102 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | 4 | 1 run of 10+, 3 catches of 20+ | 87 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | 4 | 4 runs of 10+ | 71 |
Who added the most
Expected points added (EPA) measures how much each play changed a team's expected score from that down, distance and field position. Summed over a game, it credits players for moving the ball when it mattered, not just for yards.
| Role | Player | Team | EPA | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | Joe Burrow | CIN | +18.5 | 54 dropbacks |
| Quarterback | Kirk Cousins | LV | +16.4 | 27 dropbacks |
| Quarterback | Gardner Minshew | ARI | +14.7 | 21 dropbacks |
| Pass catcher | Tee Higgins | CIN | +14.9 | 12 targets |
| Pass catcher | Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | +13.0 | 9 targets |
| Pass catcher | Emmett Johnson | KC | +9.5 | 5 targets |
| Runner | Tyler Allgeier | ARI | +7.9 | 11 carries |
| Runner | Jaylen Warren | PIT | +5.2 | 17 carries |
| Runner | Braelon Allen | NYJ | +4.6 | 21 carries |
Sources: nflverse play-by-play (win probability, EPA); nflverse rosters. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
