Atlanta 45, New Orleans 24: the quarterback we didn't account for
We had New Orleans at 52%. The market had New Orleans by 1.5. Atlanta won 45-24 at Caesars Superdome. Michael Penix Jr. was back as Atlanta's quarterback; Cooper Rush had played most of their earlier games.
We had New Orleans at 52%. The market had New Orleans by 1.5. Atlanta won 45-24 at Caesars Superdome. Our lean didn't hold, though at 52% that was close to a coin flip.
How it swung
1. In the 1st quarter (13:43), Bijan Robinson ran in a 59-yard touchdown, a 15-point swing in win probability towards Atlanta.
2. In the 1st quarter (2:52), Kendre Miller fumbled after a 3-yard run, a 13-point swing in win probability towards Atlanta.
Who played quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. was back as Atlanta's quarterback; Cooper Rush had played most of their earlier games.
Who won the matchups
Drake London against New Orleans: Even. London had 96 yards on 6 targets, close to his usual 87.
Chris Olave against Atlanta: Olave won it. 116 yards on 12 targets, above his usual 84.
The reasons that mattered: Michael Penix Jr. was back, but the model rated Atlanta on Cooper Rush's games; it has no rule for a starter returning yet (we're testing one).
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 4; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-05T09-15-29Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
