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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Falcons
won by 21
Final · week 4
45–24
at Caesars Superdome · Mon 5 Oct
Saints
lost by 21

How the game swung

The Saints' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 13:43: ATL score (6-0)Q1 13:34: ATL score (7-0)Q1 00:52: ATL score (13-0)Q1 00:48: ATL score (14-0)Q2 15:00: NO score (14-6)Q2 14:57: NO score (14-7)Q2 09:03: ATL score (20-7)Q2 08:59: ATL score (21-7)Q2 03:10: ATL score (24-7)Q3 07:40: NO score (24-10)Q3 02:15: ATL score (30-10)Q3 02:11: ATL score (31-10)Q4 13:03: NO score (31-16)Q4 13:00: NO score (31-17)Q4 09:57: ATL score (37-17)Q4 09:50: ATL score (38-17)Q4 06:58: ATL score (44-17)Q4 06:52: ATL score (45-17)Q4 01:19: NO score (45-23)Q4 01:13: NO score (45-24)12345NO winning ↑ATL winning ↓
■ Saints ahead■ Falcons ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q1 13:43 - Atlanta explosive play (+15% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q1 13:43 · Explosive play · nobody saw this coming
Bi.Robinson EPA +4.7

7-Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+15%win chance to ATL
2
Q1 2:52 · Turnover
K.Miller EPA -5.9

5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London, 26-C.Henderson). FUMBLES (26-C.Henderson), RECOVERED by ATL-26-C.Henderson at NO 22.

+13%win chance to ATL
3
Q3 1:33 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
T.Shough EPA +4.4

(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts).

+2%win chance to NO
4
Q4 13:59 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
A.Kamara EPA +1.6

(No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (99-C.Thomas; 54-B.Dorlus).

+1%win chance to NO
5
Q4 8:33 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
T.Shough EPA -3.6

(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam).

+0%win chance to ATL

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: London had 96 yards on 6 targets, close to his usual 87.

Profile
Targets6
Yards96
After the catch47
Yards on short throws19%
deep share of yards28%
Expected (his usual)8741%
Chris Olave won it

Olave won it: 116 yards on 12 targets, above his usual 84.

Profile
Targets12
Yards116
After the catch25
Yards on short throws14%
deep share of yards58%
Expected (his usual)8412%

Every drive

Falcons drive left to right, Saints right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
TD · 3 pl · 80 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 15 yds
Q1
Missed FG · 9 pl · 53 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · -4 yds
Q1
Turnover · 1 pl · 2 yds
Q1
TD · 5 pl · 13 yds
Q1
TD · 3 pl · 54 yds
Q2
TD · 10 pl · 65 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q2
FG · 9 pl · 75 yds
Q2
Punt · 8 pl · 32 yds
Q2
Half · 2 pl · 11 yds
Q3
FG · 12 pl · 47 yds
Q3
TD · 9 pl · 74 yds
Q3
TD · 13 pl · 58 yds
Q4
TD · 5 pl · 72 yds
Q4
Downs · 4 pl · 0 yds
Q4
TD · 3 pl · 21 yds
Q4
TD · 13 pl · 68 yds
Q4
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
ATL goal2040504020NO goal

Side by side

422
Total yards
320
+0.42
EPA per play
-0.07
59%
Success rate
36%
23
First downs
19
1
Sacks taken
2
0
Turnovers
1
4/8
Third downs
6/15
Falcons leaders
PassingM.Penix15/20 · 223 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingBi.Robinson19 car · 145 yds
ReceivingD.London5/6 · 96 yds
Saints leaders
PassingT.Shough30/48 · 286 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingA.Kamara7 car · 23 yds
ReceivingC.Olave8/12 · 116 yds

Scoring

Q1 13:437-Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-0
Q1 13:346-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.7-0
Q1 00:52(:52) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13-0
Q1 00:486-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.14-0
Q2 15:00(Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14-6
Q2 14:5710-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.14-7
Q2 09:0315-Br.Robinson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.20-7
Q2 08:596-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.21-7
Q2 03:106-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.24-7
Q3 07:4010-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.24-10
Q3 02:1515-Br.Robinson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.30-10
Q3 02:116-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.31-10
Q4 13:03(No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.31-16
Q4 13:0010-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.31-17
Q4 09:579-M.Penix pass deep middle to 4-J.Dotson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.37-17
Q4 09:506-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.38-17
Q4 06:5815-Br.Robinson left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.44-17
Q4 06:526-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.45-17
Q4 01:19(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.45-23
Q4 01:1310-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.45-24

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had NO 53%, the market NO 53%. It finished ATL 45, NO 24.

New Orleans ranks #8 in turnovers (3.5%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 5 Oct, 10:15 UK, before kickoff.

Rewind · week 4

Atlanta 45, New Orleans 24: the quarterback we didn't account for

We had New Orleans at 52%. The market had New Orleans by 1.5. Atlanta won 45-24 at Caesars Superdome. Michael Penix Jr. was back as Atlanta's quarterback; Cooper Rush had played most of their earlier games.

3 min