ATL
NOSan Francisco 24, Denver 14: how it played out
We had San Francisco at 80%. The market had San Francisco by 3. San Francisco won 24-14 at Levi's Stadium.
We had San Francisco at 80%. The market had San Francisco by 3. San Francisco won 24-14 at Levi's Stadium. We were right, and so was the market.
How it swung
1. In the 2nd quarter (14:30), Brock Purdy up the middle to den 34 for no gain, a 10-point swing in win probability towards Denver.
2. In the 3rd quarter (9:52), Corliss Waitman punts 61 yards to den 28. Marvin Mims Jr. to den 29 for 1 yard. fumbles, recovered by Siran Neal at den 28. Siran Neal to, a 21-point swing in win probability towards San Francisco.
4. In the 4th quarter (2:25), Brock Purdy found George Kittle for a 56-yard touchdown, a 15-point swing in win probability towards San Francisco.
Who won the matchups
Jaylen Waddle against San Francisco: San Francisco won it. Waddle held to 35 yards on 6 targets, against his usual 57.
Mike Evans against Denver: Even. Evans had 76 yards on 8 targets, close to his usual 70.
Bo Nix against San Francisco: Even. Nix at +0.11 EPA a dropback, close to his usual +0.09.
The model's call held up. One right pick isn't a trend; the full record is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 4; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-04T09-11-37Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
