ATL
NOCarolina 32, Detroit 26: what nobody priced
We had Detroit at 69%. The market had Detroit by 4.5. Carolina won 32-26 at Bank of America Stadium.
We had Detroit at 69%. The market had Detroit by 4.5. Carolina won 32-26 at Bank of America Stadium. We were wrong, and so was the market.
How it swung
1. In the 2nd quarter (8:52), Bryce Young found John Metchie III for 10 yards, a 8-point swing in win probability towards Carolina.
2. In the 2nd quarter (0:21), Jared Goff found Jameson Williams for 49 yards, a 13-point swing in win probability towards Detroit.
3. In the 3rd quarter (7:53), Jared Goff found Isaac TeSlaa for 57 yards, a 15-point swing in win probability towards Detroit.
Who won the matchups
Amon-Ra St. Brown against Carolina: Even. Brown had 84 yards on 11 targets, close to his usual 83.
Tetairoa McMillan against Detroit: McMillan won it. McMillan won it deep: 32 of his 192 yards came on throws of 20+ yards.
Nothing in the pre-game numbers pointed this way. Some games are just misses, and we grade those too.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 4; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-04T09-11-37Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
