PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
DAL
PHIKansas City at Seattle: model and market split
KC at SEA, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Model KC 62%, market SEA 57%.
Week 7, Sunday 8:20pm ET. Kansas City visit Seattle. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| KC | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | +0.16 (5th) | -0.08 (24th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.10 (3rd) | -0.13 (2nd) |
| Offence success rate | 49% (2nd) | 41% (22nd) |
| Third-down conversion | 42% (13th) | 34% (29th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 20% (7th) | 31% (31st) |
| Pressure rate generated | 22% (20th) | 30% (3rd) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 62% (16th) | 64% (12th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-6 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Kansas City's defence (3rd) should have the upper hand on Seattle's offence (24th). Kansas City's pass rush (20th in pressure generated) against a Seattle line ranked 31st in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup.
A caveat worth keeping: that's 6 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Travis Kelce against Seattle: no obvious soft spot. Seattle are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Kelce's likeliest route is short throws (72% of his targets), where they rank 13th. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 30th percentile for separation and 14th for hands, and Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, Riq Woolen and Nehemiah Pritchett all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Kansas City: best way in: intermediate throws. Kansas City rank 18th against intermediate throws, which make up 36% of Smith-Njigba's targets.
Patrick Mahomes against Seattle: a tough day in the air. Seattle rank 1st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (13th). Pressure: Seattle are 12th at getting sacks, and Kansas City are 22nd at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Kansas City at 62% (low confidence), with a line of KC by 1.6. The market disagrees: it makes Seattle 57% favourites at SEA by 2.5. That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-22T09-10-53Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
