MIN look like the play here. MIN have been rolling at home, winning 5 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Keenan Allen · against MIN

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

75%

Intermediate

16%

Deep (20+)

9%

Left side

41%

Middle

16%

Right side

43%

How MIN defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

11th

Intermediate

2nd

Deep (20+)

32nd

Left side

12th

Middle

21st

Right side

2nd

Yards after catch allowed

29th

Sack rate forced

1st

The read

1. Minnesota rank 32nd against deep balls, and 9% of Allen's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Work the middle: 16% of his targets go that way and Minnesota rank 21st defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 37th percentile for separation and 54th for hands, and Byron Murphy, Fabian Moreau and James Pierre all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Justin Jefferson · against IND

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

54%

Intermediate

31%

Deep (20+)

15%

Left side

37%

Middle

19%

Right side

44%

How IND defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

20th

Intermediate

24th

Deep (20+)

15th

Left side

23rd

Middle

22nd

Right side

19th

Yards after catch allowed

20th

Sack rate forced

29th

The read

1. Indianapolis rank 24th against intermediate throws, which make up 31% of Jefferson's targets.
2. Don't force deep balls: they've been Jefferson's worst return (-0.10 EPA a target), and Indianapolis are 15th there.
3. Work the left side: 37% of his targets go that way and Indianapolis rank 23rd defending throws there.
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Daniel Jones · against MIN

A tough day in the air

Profile

How MIN defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

11th

Intermediate

2nd

Deep (20+)

32nd

Left side

12th

Middle

21st

Right side

2nd

Yards after catch allowed

29th

Sack rate forced

1st

The read

1. Minnesota rank 3rd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (32nd).
2. Pressure: Minnesota are 1st at getting sacks, and Indianapolis are 11th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Colts have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

IND offence

MIN defence

OverallEPA per play

22nd

1st

PassingEPA per dropback

28th

1st

RushingEPA per carry

2nd

1st

Third downconversion rate

20th

1st

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

19th

1st

Biggest gap: passing, where the Vikings defence has a 27-place edge.

When the Vikings have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

MIN offence

IND defence

OverallEPA per play

27th

26th

PassingEPA per dropback

23rd

22nd

RushingEPA per carry

26th

32nd

Third downconversion rate

15th

4th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

28th

22nd

Biggest gap: third down, where the Colts defence has a 11-place edge.

Form and history

Colts this season

L23-41wk 1 vs BALL30-33wk 2 at KCW19-17wk 3 vs HOUW30-13wk 4 at WASL22-34wk 5 at PITL20-26wk 6 vs TEN

Vikings this season

W39-22wk 1 vs GBW9-3wk 2 at CHIW23-16wk 3 at TBW15-10wk 4 vs MIAW23-13wk 5 at NO

Last 2 meetingsIND 0 · MIN 2

13-21IND at MIN
2024-11

36-39IND at MIN
2022-12

Injury report

Coltsmodel impact 0.0

Alec PierceWR · Heel	IR
D.J. MontgomeryWR · Abdomen	IR
Carson TowtTE	IR
Arden KeyDE · Hamstring	IR
Micheal ClemonsDL · Toe	IR
Cameron MitchellDB	IR
Sauce GardnerDB · Calf	Doubtful
Anthony GouldWR · Concussion	Questionable
Ashton DulinWR · Hamstring	Questionable
Tyler WarrenTE · Groin	Questionable
Drew OgletreeTE · Ankle	Questionable
Justin WalleyCB · Knee	Questionable

Vikingsmodel impact 0.0

Jordan MasonRB · Thumb	IR
Josh OliverTE · Biceps	IR
Donovan JacksonOL · Knee - Meniscus	IR
Tyler BattyDL · Knee - ACL	IR
Nick SamacC · Knee	IR
Jamal AdamsSS · Knee	IR
Justin JeffersonWR · Ankle	Questionable
T.J. HockensonTE · Concussion	Questionable
James PierreCB · Foot	Questionable
Christian DarrisawT · Concussion	Questionable
Brian O'NeillT · Knee	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.