NE
CHI
NO
BAL
TEN
IND
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
DEN
ARI
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
PHI
CAR look like a strong play here. TB have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CAR defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Carolina rank 22nd against intermediate throws, which make up 38% of Egbuka's targets.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Egbuka's worst return (-0.43 EPA a target), and Carolina are 7th there.
- Work the left side: 43% of his targets go that way and Carolina rank 27th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 43rd percentile for separation and 39th for hands, and Michael Jackson and Will Lee both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TB defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tampa Bay are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. McMillan's likeliest route is intermediate throws (37% of his targets), where they rank 16th.
- Don't force short throws: they've been McMillan's worst return (-0.18 EPA a target), and Tampa Bay are 15th there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 50th percentile for separation and 30th for hands, and Zyon McCollum allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Buccaneers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)TB offenceCAR defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Panthers defence has a 16-place edge.
When the Panthers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CAR offenceTB defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Buccaneers defence has a 11-place edge.
Form and history
Buccaneers this season
27-33wk 1 at CINL
19-23wk 2 vs CLEL
16-23wk 3 vs MINL
14-17wk 4 vs GBW
24-16wk 5 at DALL
19-26wk 6 vs PITPanthers this season14-16CAR at TB2026-01
20-23TB at CAR2025-12
14-48CAR at TB2024-12
26-23TB at CAR2024-12
9-0TB at CAR2024-01
Injury report
Buccaneersmodel impact -2.1| Jalen McMillanWR · Knee - PCL | IR |
| David Sills VWR | IR |
| Josh HayesCB · Knee | IR |
| Mohamed KamaraDL · Knee | IR |
| Antoine Winfield Jr.DB · Ribs | Doubtful |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Thumb | Questionable |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Concussion | Questionable |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Illness | Questionable |
| Christian RozeboomLB · Finger | Questionable |
| Luke GoedekeOL · Calf | Questionable |
| Zyon McCollumDB · Illness | Questionable |
| Calijah KanceyDL · Illness | Questionable |
Panthersmodel impact -1.4| Chris Brazzell IIWR · Knee | IR |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Knee | IR |
| Jonathon BrooksRB · Abdomen | IR |
| Mike JacksonCB · Groin | IR |
| Jaycee HornCB · Quadriceps | IR |
| Bam Martin-ScottLB · Hamstring | IR |
| Cam JacksonDT · Knee | IR |
| Ikem EkwonuT · Knee | PUP |
| Brady ChristensenT · Hamstring | IR |
| Nic ScourtonDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Thomas IncoomLB · Calf | Questionable |
| Jaelan PhillipsLB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldTB | Passing yards | 214.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 70% | |
| Bryce YoungCARrole up | Passing yards | 253.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 20% | |
| Baker MayfieldTB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.51 | 38% | 70% | |
| Bryce YoungCAR | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.69 | 56% | 40% | |
| Baker MayfieldTBrole up | Rushing yards | 16.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 60% | |
| Bryce YoungCARrole up | Rushing yards | 11.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 70% | |
| Bucky IrvingTBrole up | Rushing yards | 64.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 80% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Rushing yards | 70.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Receiving yards | 12.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 50% | |
| Darren WallerCAR | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% | |
| Jalen CokerCAR | Receiving yards | 67.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Receiving yards | 71.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 20% | |
| Tommy TrembleCARrole up | Receiving yards | 16.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.22 | 43% | 50% | |
| Darren WallerCAR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.33 | 41% | 80% | |
| Jalen CokerCARrole up | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.06 | 46% | 10% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.16 | 44% | 0% | |
| Tommy TrembleCAR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.46 | 38% | 40% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CAR (72%) by 7.1 points.