SEA
HOU
JAX
BAL
CLE
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
How the game swung
The 49ers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.
The five plays that decided it
Q3 9:52 - San Francisco turnover by C.Waitman (+21% WPA) sealed it.
13-B.Purdy up the middle to DEN 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).
15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
(Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 17 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones).
(Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to SF 45 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
Who won the matchups
Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.
San Francisco won it: Waddle held to 35 yards on 6 targets, against his usual 57.
Every drive
Broncos drive left to right, 49ers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.
Punt · 3 pl · 2 ydsPunt · 8 pl · 30 ydsFG · 12 pl · 70 ydsDowns · 5 pl · 31 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 8 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 9 ydsPunt · 9 pl · 32 ydsFG · 11 pl · 74 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 13 ydsMissed FG · 6 pl · 46 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 1 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 22 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 3 ydsTD · 9 pl · 28 ydsFG · 10 pl · 63 ydsTD · 9 pl · 69 ydsTD · 9 pl · 70 ydsTD · 5 pl · 69 ydsMissed FG · 7 pl · 18 ydsHalf · 0 pl · 0 ydsSide by side
Broncos leaders49ers leadersScoring
| Q1 01:48 | | 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. | 3-0 |
| Q2 01:38 | | 18-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. | 3-3 |
| Q3 04:22 | | 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. | 3-9 |
| Q3 04:15 | | 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. | 3-10 |
| Q4 14:12 | | 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. | 6-10 |
| Q4 08:55 | | 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. | 6-16 |
| Q4 08:52 | | 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. | 6-17 |
| Q4 04:10 | | (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 12-17 |
| Q4 04:05 | | TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 28-T.Badie rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. | 14-17 |
| Q4 02:25 | | (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 14-23 |
| Q4 02:15 | | 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. | 14-24 |
How the model did
Before kickoff the model had SF 80%, the market SF 57%. It finished DEN 14, SF 24.
Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.