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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Lions
lost by 6
Final · week 4
26–32
at Bank of America Stadium · Sun 4 Oct
Panthers
won by 6

How the game swung

The Panthers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 12:09: DET score (3-0)Q1 01:56: CAR score (3-6)Q1 01:50: CAR score (3-7)Q2 12:41: DET score (6-7)Q2 08:14: CAR score (6-13)Q2 02:18: DET score (12-13)Q2 02:14: DET score (13-13)Q2 00:32: CAR score (13-16)Q2 00:05: DET score (16-16)Q3 09:37: CAR score (16-22)Q3 06:24: DET score (19-22)Q3 02:52: CAR score (19-28)Q3 02:47: CAR score (19-29)Q4 09:03: CAR score (19-32)Q4 03:42: DET score (25-32)Q4 03:38: DET score (26-32)12345CAR winning ↑DET winning ↓
■ Panthers ahead■ Lions ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q3 7:53 - Detroit momentum-shifting play by J.Goff (+15% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q2 8:52 · Fourth down
B.Young EPA +3.0

(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 32 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark).

+8%win chance to CAR
2
Q2 0:21 · Other · nobody saw this coming
J.Goff EPA +2.4

(:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 1-J.Williams to CAR 23 for 49 yards (22-L.Ransom; 29-A.Evans).

+13%win chance to DET
3
Q3 7:53 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
J.Goff EPA +4.0

(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (29-A.Evans).

+15%win chance to DET
4
Q4 11:14 · Fourth down
B.Young EPA +3.3

(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller to DET 28 for 9 yards (27-J.Mills).

+4%win chance to CAR
5
Q4 1:29 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
J.Goff EPA -2.5

(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee).

+4%win chance to CAR

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: Brown had 84 yards on 11 targets, close to his usual 83.

Profile
Targets11
Yards84
After the catch8
Yards on short throws56%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)8253%
Tetairoa McMillan won it

McMillan won it deep: 32 of his 192 yards came on throws of 20+ yards.

Profile
Targets16
Yards192
After the catch65
Yards on short throws46%
deep share of yards17%
Expected (his usual)32%

Every drive

Lions drive left to right, Panthers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
FG · 6 pl · 34 yds
Q1
Punt · 6 pl · 14 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds
Q1
TD · 8 pl · 72 yds
Q1
FG · 9 pl · 33 yds
Q2
TD · 9 pl · 75 yds
Q2
TD · 11 pl · 63 yds
Q2
FG · 8 pl · 41 yds
Q2
FG · 3 pl · 49 yds
Q3
TD · 11 pl · 64 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 72 yds
Q3
TD · 7 pl · 85 yds
Q3
Punt · 7 pl · 37 yds
Q4
FG · 12 pl · 72 yds
Q4
Downs · 9 pl · 74 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds
Q4
TD · 10 pl · 72 yds
Q4
Punt · 6 pl · 23 yds
Q4
Downs · 4 pl · 9 yds
Q4
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
DET goal2040504020CAR goal

Side by side

452
Total yards
449
+0.18
EPA per play
+0.29
46%
Success rate
50%
23
First downs
27
1
Sacks taken
3
0
Turnovers
0
4/12
Third downs
5/12
Lions leaders
PassingJ.Goff32/52 · 412 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingJ.Gibbs15 car · 46 yds
ReceivingJ.Williams6/8 · 102 yds
Panthers leaders
PassingB.Young29/41 · 329 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingC.Hubbard20 car · 122 yds
ReceivingT.McMillan14/16 · 192 yds

Scoring

Q1 12:0939-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.3-0
Q1 01:5630-C.Hubbard left tackle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.3-6
Q1 01:5010-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.3-7
Q2 12:4139-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.6-7
Q2 08:14(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Wonnum].6-13
Q2 02:1879-L.Borom and 50-S.Gill-Howard reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.12-13
Q2 02:1439-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.13-13
Q2 00:32(:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.13-16
Q2 00:05(:05) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.16-16
Q3 09:37(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16-22
Q3 06:2439-J.Bates 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.19-22
Q3 02:52(No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19-28
Q3 02:4710-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.19-29
Q4 09:0310-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.19-32
Q4 03:42(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.25-32
Q4 03:3839-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.26-32

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had DET 69%, the market DET 63%. It finished DET 26, CAR 32.

Pure variance - no actionable learning. Process was sound.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.

Rewind · week 4

Carolina 32, Detroit 26: what nobody priced

We had Detroit at 69%. The market had Detroit by 4.5. Carolina won 32-26 at Bank of America Stadium.

3 min