NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHISan Francisco 23, Washington 17: how it played out
We had San Francisco at 84%. The market had San Francisco by 7.5. San Francisco won 23-17 at Levi's Stadium.
We had San Francisco at 84%. The market had San Francisco by 7.5. San Francisco won 23-17 at Levi's Stadium. We were right, and so was the market.
How it swung
1. In the 1st quarter (5:42), Brock Purdy ran for 7 yards, a 7-point swing in win probability towards San Francisco.
3. In the 2nd quarter (9:11), Christian McCaffrey lost it after a 12-yard catch; Frankie Luvu recovered the fumble, a 7-point swing in win probability towards Washington.
5. With 2:00 left, Jayden Daniels's pass for Treylon Burks fell incomplete, a 22-point swing in win probability towards San Francisco.
Who won the matchups
Terry McLaurin against San Francisco: San Francisco won it. McLaurin held to 27 yards on 1 targets, against his usual 54.
Mike Evans against Washington: Evans won it. 94 yards on 5 targets, above his usual 70.
Brock Purdy against Washington: Washington won it. Purdy managed -0.05 EPA a dropback, well below his usual +0.23.
The model's call held up. One right pick isn't a trend; the full record is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 6; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-19T09-15-57Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.